© DOD photo by U.S. Air Force Staff Sgt. Jette CarrPresident Donald J. Trump departs from the Pentagon alongside Secretary of Defense James Mattis
The Trump administration's Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), to be released Friday, will include a call for the deployment of low-yield, "more usable" nuclear warheads, a move widely anticipated when a draft of the document was leaked to the Huffington Post on January 11. So while the recommendations won't necessarily be a surprise, what is less public is the bitter battle during its drafting that pitted senior Army and Navy warriors against nuclear wonks inside the Defense Department. That fight-over the exorbitant costs associated with the NPR, and charges that it could make nuclear war more likely-are bound to continue through implementation."It's one thing to write a policy," a senior Pentagon civilian privy to the NPR fight told
The American Conservative, "and it's another thing to have it implemented. What the NPR is recommending will break the bank, and a lot of people around here are worried that making nuclear weapons more usable isn't what we should be doing.
The conventional military guys have dug in their heels, they're dead-set against it. This battle isn't over."
In effect, the congressionally mandated review calls for the U.S. to deploy two new types of lower yield nuclear warheads, generally defined as nuclear bombs below a five kiloton range (the one dropped on Hiroshima was 20 kilotons), that could be fitted onto a submarine-launched ballistic missile, and one, yet to be developed, that would be fitted onto a submarine-launched cruise missile.
Additionally, the NPR calls for "recapitalizing" the complex of nuclear laboratories and plants, which, taken together with the proposed modernization program of the U.S. nuclear arsenal (the "triad"),
will almost certainly cost in excess of the estimated price tag of $1.2 trillion over the next 30 years.The drafting of the NPR began in April of 2017, when Defense Secretary James Mattis directed that the work be overseen by the deputy secretary of defense and AF General Paul Selva, the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. But the actual writing of the document was organized by Dr. Robert Soofer, the deputy assistant secretary of defense for nuclear and missile defense policy and a former powerhouse staffer on the Senate Armed Services Committee. Soofer, in turn, depended on a group of nuclear thinkers led by Dr. Keith Payne, the high-profile president of the National Institute for Public Policy (NIPP). Payne was aided by Franklin Miller, an influential defense thinker who, as he confirmed to
The American Conservative by email, provided "advice to DoD" on the project. (Payne did not respond to repeated requests for comment on this article, while Miller emailed that he would not comment until after the NPR was released.)
Comment: See also: Trump's 'magic moment': US as unique nuclear power in the World - 'They are not there yet, sadly'