Pres Vladimir Putin
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The de-escalation framework that unfolded in the U.S.-Iran Lucerne talks largely stayed true to the original Iranian 10-point plan. Meanwhile, President Trump and Vice-President Vance deliberately muddy the waters, claiming that Iran has already agreed to IAEA inspections of Iran's nuclear facilities (a claim repeatedly denied by Iran): Vance announced that the IAEA could have begun inspections this week. No - - the 'Framework' only refers to the possible IAEA supervision of the dilution to the 60% enriched stockpile subject to a final agreement with the U.S. having been reached.

Trump, writing on social media, later falsely asserted: "Iran has fully and completely agreed to highest level Nuclear inspections long into the future". In fact, the IAEA are only inspecting the joint Iran-Russia power station in Bushier at Russia's request, because Russia wants to ensure compliance on its involvement. In other words, it is a Russian request to satisfy its own IAEA compliance commitment.

Trump then warned Iran that he may have to "finish the job [militarily]" — (if he doesn't get a very good deal) — which, he says, would take " about a week", and adds that Iran will be required to use any unfrozen Iranian funds to be held in ESCROW accounts (accounts controlled by the U.S.) to buy "corn and soybeans for their people, because right now their people are very hungry — and they're buying exclusively from us".

So, it's pretty clear what's ahead — Trump is reverting to his New York real-estate mode of negotiations. In the Art of the Deal, his 1987 book, ghost written by Tony Schwartz, the text advises the use of "extreme and unpredictable demands to create anxiety and force concessions from rivals".

Thus, we are back to the General Kellogg playbook - - Kellogg advised Trump that the only thing that works with Putin or the Iranians is pressure — and then still more pressure.

Familiar Trumpian tactics. Show a little initial flexibility to tease out adversaries in order to pull them into negotiations; subsequent false claims of Iranian concessions and extreme demands are then used to increase pressure on Iran (whilst Trump appears tough to the angry neocon constituency and to his 'base' back home).

This style of pressure may work for New York real-estate deals, but will be ineffective with both Iran and Russia.

Such threats will be counterproductive with Iran, and place the U.S. on a collision course. "The Islamabad understanding was not the result of pressure and coercion, but rather the result of the resistance and authority of the Iranian nation", Mr Qalibaf, the chief Iranian negotiator, retorted.

In practical terms, as Will Schryver, a shrewd observer of the U.S. military, notes, Iran has pressure points "more numerous and capable than the U.S. can bring to bear on the battlefield" —

"In my view, [Schryver says], a powerful U.S. military presence in the Persian Gulf region has become utterly untenable. They're just trying to save face now. I do not believe, [he concludes] the U.S. military can mount even a 72-hour high-intensity operation at this point in time".

"But I think they'll try. Probably just Trump bluff, but it would not surprise me if they try to play one last card to gain the upper hand". (Maybe after the midterms, and with the U.S. having rebuilt somewhat its munitions shortfall).

To which Iran likely will respond by closing the Strait of Hormuz again, and attacking, pari passu, regional (Gulf) infrastructure. Trump will be gaming the economy who first plays 'Chicken'. A further military venture likely will only further erode American military standing.

Quite possibly, however, Trump may be prepared to cut his losses in Iran — the war anyway is a liability to his Midterm electoral calculus — by circling back to Ukraine and Russia. The Kiev Independent released a report yesterday, quoting a "senior Ukrainian official saying that Trump had privately given Zelensky the greenlight to act "more boldly" against Russia".

Here we go again, roundabout time — "Trump says he doesn't really believe Putin will do anything without pressure", the Ukrainian official added.

Simplicius speculates:
"Trump has clearly been frustrated by his inability to settle any of the conflicts he had promised easily. And recently, on the heels of the Iranian memorandum saga, he even admitted that he would now be "turning his attention" back to Ukraine.

"As such, it's plausible that Trump would have given secret encouragement to the Europeans to 'shape the battlefield' in order to "soften" Russia up ahead of whatever next Trump might have planned".
If this is true (and it probably is), the Europeans are playing with matches and risk lighting a conflagration.

The E3 leaders, Starmer, Merz and Macron, met on 7 June with Zelensky to promise both unwavering support and — in the context of pledging further pressure on Russia —
"underlining the urgent need to scale up the production of interceptors; deep strike capabilities and anti-ballistic missile co-development — and further to support the future sustainability of the Ukrainian Armed Forces".
In short, the Europeans intend to ratchet up deep strikes into Moscow and St Petersburg, which will likely kill and unsettle their inhabitants.

The E3 carefully planned how to stage-manage the upcoming G7 summit, the EU summit, with Zelensky showcased at both events, promising to increase the pressure on "President Putin to agree to an immediate and complete ceasefire, taking the current contact line for its start-point". European leaders also pledged to co-ordinate ahead of the NATO summit in Ankara (7-8 July) to achieve increased pledges of military support for Ukraine.

The E3 states are explicitly gearing up with new missiles to strike deeper, and more destructively, into Russia. The British government, for example, has announced that —
"the UK project to develop low-cost advanced long-range strike weapons for Ukraine has reached a significant milestone, with three British-designed systems successfully flight tested. The ground-launched strike weapons reportedly are capable of hitting targets more than 500km distant, at a speed of 600 km/h - whilst carrying a 225 kg warhead".
According to the Financial Times, Trump was "hugely impressed and enthusiastic" with Ukraine's recent campaign of long-range strikes on targets deep inside Russia at last week's G7 summit. At the summit, Trump also agreed to increase sanctions on Russian energy.

It is clear that the E3 had been plotting a major psy-op to convince Trump that Ukraine was not on the back-foot against Russia (as Trump may have been briefed); but rather had regained the front foot, and that the U.S. should support the European agenda to force a Russian capitulation agenda (ceasefire, borders unchanged, reparations paid by Russia and war-crimes trials for Russian officials indicted with crimes, etc).

These developments have brought two major developments out of Russia:

Firstly, senior Kremlin aides, notably Yuri Ushakov, Putin's spokesman, have been saying over the past three days the 'spirit' of the Anchorage summit, and its concomitant understandings, "have effectively collapsed" — "The U.S. abandoned them". Moscow no longer expects those commitments to be honoured and is focused solely on securing its own "victory" through military means.

Foreign Minister Lavrov went further, describing the Alaska meeting as an American "ploy" designed to buy time for Ukraine to rebuild and rearm its military — essentially likening them to the Minsk Accords that similarly were mounted as a deceit.

Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said:
"We also see Washington's line moving closer to the most rabid anti-Russian policies pursued by the U.S.'s closest European allies - namely, the UK and France".
This represents a huge strategic shift. Russia no longer seeks a relationship with Washington, though contact with DC will continue.

The second development stems from President Putin's address at the St George's Hall to military cadets on 23 June. Putin, in summary, told the young officers that the West manufactures a Russia threat, then accuses Russia of creating that very threat. This, said Putin, is a historically repeated pattern going back to 1941.

Putin implied that a threshold had now been crossed: He stated that whilst, until recently, NATO countries had limited themselves to supporting the Kiev regime to wage war on Russia, the West today is openly talking about preparing for a war against Russia, and is building up their military offensive budgets. German Chancellor Mertz has been quite vocal in this regard, Putin said.

Russia's response, he said, is focused on modernising its nuclear triad and its Army, and strengthening the combat capability of the Aerospace Forces and the Navy. The explicit mention of the nuclear triad in direct proximity to the discussion of Western preparation for war against Russia was certainly a pointed message to Trump and the Europeans.

Russia has heard the European clamour for war. It has now made the strategic decision in response to prepare for war in Europe.