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Trump's new National Security Strategy isolationist, not cooperative, but it's better than unchecked interventionism

trump water
© Joshua Roberts / Reuters
Yesterday the White House published a new National Security Strategy (pdf). The publication was, unusually, announced by the president in a stump speech. The new NSS is unusually long:
Reagan National Security Strategy was 41 pages, Bush 2002 was 31, Obama 2015 was 29. Trump's is 55 pages: Buffet of priorities without much prioritization.
The first "fundamental responsibility" the NSS sets out is:
... to protect the American people, the homeland, and the American way of life ...
Micah Zenko points out that does not really do that:
[A]lmost nothing in the ... document deals with the actual domestic threats, risks, and systemic harms that Americans experience every day.
...
The Trump NSS ... mentions terrorists 58 times, and pledges to "defeat jihadist terrorists," just as all previous NSS documents have done since 9/11. Over the past 16-plus years, jihadis have killed 103 Americans within the United States, while right-wing terrorists have killed 68. During that same time period, drug-induced deaths have more than tripled, with over 59,000 Americans dying in 2016, while America's suicide rate has risen by 25 percent, resulting in 43,000 deaths annually.
...
The Trump administration's NSS fails to do what it claims - protect Americans - largely because it does not address the real threats and risks faced by Americans. It might be an "America First" foreign policy, as the president contends, but it does not put Americans themselves first.
While it touches lots of foreign policy issues, the emphasis of the new NSS is more realist than the - on paper - more idealistic version of Obama's imperial strategy. There is less schmoozing about "values" and a new emphasis on "rivals", most importantly China and Russia.

Comment: The "four pillars" as defined by the document: protect the homeland, promote U.S. prosperity, peace through strength, advancing U.S. influence.
The White House has described the strategy as "principled realism" because it "acknowledges the central role of power in international politics, affirms that strong and sovereign states are the best hope for a peaceful world, and clearly defines our national interests," but also "grounded in advancing American principles, which spreads peace and prosperity around the globe."
The biggest threats? Russia and China, who seek to "shape a world antithetical to our interests and values":
In the actual speech, Trump called China and Russia "rival powers" that "challenge American influence, values and wealth," but said that he was planning to work with them while putting American interests first.

Next on the list are regional "dictators that spread terror, threaten their neighbors, and pursue weapons of mass destruction" followed by "jihadist terrorists" and transnational criminal organizations.

To protect the US, Trump will "target threats at their source" and "confront threats before they ever reach our borders."
State Senator Richard Black is skeptical, believing Trump has reversed on his campaign promises and caved in to the war hawks. He told RT:
"I believe the 'Deep State' actors rushed this National Security Review to completion in order to use it as a tool to dominate the foreign policy of President Trump," the senator told RT. "I believe that President Trump views Russia and China as economic competitors - not as enemies," he added.

At the same time the document "drastically reverses Donald Trump's campaign promises to normalize relations with Russia, work with the Syrian government, limit US involvement to defeating ISIS [Islamic State, IS], and downplaying our relations with NATO."
Russian MPs have responded with statements like these:
"The US national security strategy is aimed exclusively at the restoration of American hegemony and the line for building a monopolar world" -- head of the lower house committee for international relations, MP Leonid Slutsky (LDPR)

"The tone of this document leaves no doubt about the fact that the United States is not content with the changes that have taken place in the world over the past years and that it intends to reverse these changes and restore the latest version of Pax Americana as a supposedly-just new world order. What the US means by stability is its control over the domestic and foreign policy of other nations" -- head of the upper house foreign affairs committee, Senator Konstantin Kosachev
Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Hua Chunying responded:
"We urge the United States to stop deliberately distorting China's strategic intentions, and abandon outdated concepts such as a Cold War mentality and a zero-sum game, otherwise it will only harm everyone," Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying told reporters on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the Chinese embassy in the US said it is "completely selfish" for Washington to put its interest above others, warning that such an approach "will only lead to isolation." The Chinese mission also accused the US of "self-contradictory rhetoric" that diminishes the countries' cooperation.

"On the one hand, the US government claims that it is attempting to build a great partnership with China. On the other hand, it labels China as a rival. The self-contradictory rhetoric of the US betrays the truth that China and the US are becoming increasingly interdependent and have growing intertwined interests," the embassy said in a statement.

"For China and the United States, cooperation leads to win-win outcomes, while confrontation can only lead to a lose-lose situation," the diplomatic mission added, calling the US "to abandon its outdated zero-sum thinking" and "engage in win-win cooperation."
And the Kremlin:
"Looking through [the strategy], particularly those parts concerning our country, one can see the imperial nature of the document, as well as persistent unwillingness to abandon the idea of a unipolar world and accept a multipolar world," he said. Peskov stressed that Moscow strongly disagrees with Washington's stance towards Russia expressed in the document, which designates the country as a threat to US security. And yet, there are some positive signs too.

"[The strategy] has some positive moments, particularly those regarding cooperation with Russia in fields corresponding to the US interests. It is totally in line with our approach, voiced by [President Putin], because Moscow is also seeking cooperation with the United States in areas which are beneficial for us, and depending on how far our US counterparts are ready to go," President Vladimir Putin's press secretary said. When asked about "a perfect example of US-Russia cooperation," Peskov mentioned the recent exchange of information between the two countries' special services, which made it possible to thwart terrorist attacks in St. Petersburg and "helped save many lives."

The new US national security strategy is a long document with "rather impressive" wording "which needs to be thoroughly assessed" by relevant Russian agencies, the presidential spokesman said.
...
While China allegedly "seeks to displace the United States in the Indo-Pacific region, expand the reaches of its state-driven economic model, and reorder the region in its favor," Russia seeks to "restore its great power status and establish spheres of influence near its borders. The intentions of both nations are not necessarily fixed," the document added.
Overall, there are some slight shifts in the right direction here (seeing Russian and China as rivals, not simply enemy threats, with the camouflaged olive branch of cooperation in some spheres), wrapped in the clothes of "more of the same". American exceptionalism lite, perhaps? See also:


Star of David

Israel to open probe on fatal shooting of Palestinian paraplegic - UPDATE

Ibrahim Abu Thuraya  parapalegic Israel killed
© Khalil Hamra/Associated PressPalestinian mourners carry the body of 29-year-old activist Ibrahim Abu Thuraya who was shot and killed by Israeli troops Friday, in clashes on the Israeli border with Gaza, during his funeral in Gaza City, Saturday, Dec. 16, 2017. Abu Thuraya lost legs and an eye in Israeli bombing during the 2008 Israel and Gaza war.
The Israeli military said Sunday it has opened an investigation into the fatal shooting of a paraplegic Palestinian man who was shot in the head during a violent demonstration in the Gaza Strip last week.

Ibrahim Abu Thraya, 29, was shot while demonstrating along Gaza's border with Israel, Palestinian health officials said, during days of unrest sparked by President Donald Trump's recognition of Jerusalem as Israel's capital earlier this month. Abu Thraya is being hailed as a hero and his death has emerged as a rallying cry among Palestinians against Trump's dramatic declaration, which they largely saw as siding with Israel.

"We were telling him not to go (to the border), but he would not listen to us. He said 'this is Jerusalem; if I don't go to defend it, who will?'" said Raed al-Komi, Abu Thraya's half-brother.

Comment: Israel only opens a 'probe' when its actions are truly egregious.

IDF kills wheelchair-bound Palestinian with no legs during Gaza protest

If previous history is a guide, the soldier in question will get off with a slap on the wrist. Update: The IDF doesn't disappoint:
An investigation by the Israeli military into the death of a paraplegic Palestinian man cleared Israeli troops of wrongdoing on Monday, saying it found "no moral or professional failures" in the incident.

Palestinian health officials say Ibrahim Abu Thraya, 29, was shot in the head while demonstrating last week along Gaza's border with Israel, an area that has experienced repeated unrest since President Donald Trump recognized Jerusalem as Israel's capital this month.

Abu Thraya's death has become a rallying cry among Palestinians against Trump's move, which upended decades of U.S. foreign policy and countered an international consensus that the fate of Jerusalem should be determined in negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians.

The military said Friday's protest was "extremely violent," with protesters hurling stones, burning tires and explosive devices at troops. In its findings Monday, it said no live fire was aimed at Abu Thraya and it was impossible to determine the cause of death. The military said it has repeatedly requested details about Abu Thraya's injuries and will examine them if they are received. The military did not disclose from whom it had requested details.

Abu Thraya, who had previously worked as a fisherman, lost his legs in an Israeli airstrike during a 2008 war between Israel and Hamas. According to relatives, he was assisting in the evacuation of people after an earlier airstrike when he was struck. He had since used a wheelchair.

Itedal Abu Thraya, Ibrahim's mother, questioned the military's self-investigation and said her son posed no threat.

"He was only holding a flag, not an explosive belt or a bomb," she said. "I do not trust them or their investigations."

Israeli military investigations have drawn criticism from rights groups and Palestinians who charge that they are not independent or effective, citing a low indictment rate. The military insists the system works.
Israeli military shoots protester in the head. Israeli military investigates itself. Israeli military clears itself.

The UN Human Rights Chief, however, denounced the IDF's excessive force and is calling for an independent investigation:
"The lethal use of firearms should only be employed as the last resort, when strictly unavoidable, in order to protect life. However, as far as we can see, there is nothing whatsoever to suggest that Ibrahim Abu Thuraya was posing an imminent threat of death or serious injury when he was killed.

"Given his severe disability, which must have been clearly visible to those who shot him, his killing is incomprehensible - a truly shocking and wanton act."
...
The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) said in a statement: "No live fire was aimed at Abu Thuraya. It is impossible to determine whether Abu Thuraya was injured as a result of riot dispersal means or what caused his death."



Gold Coins

SOTT Focus: How the Fed Destroys Free Market

Woodrow Wilson Federal Reserve
It will be shocking to many Americans that our free market system is deeply and fundamentally flawed. Many people understand that we have crony capitalism that creates loopholes to benefit those at the top. The financial crisis of 2008 and the following bailouts also exposed the rotten financial system and the rigged Wall Street. But there's something else that's even more significant and innate in the corruption of our economy: the Federal Reserve Bank. This is an arcane issue that puts most people to sleep, so let's make it easy and fun by story-telling. It's about a small town called Murika.

Wall Street

End of petrodollar hegemony: Yuan-priced crude futures due to launch on Christmas

yuan ruble
© Sputnik/ Alexander Demyanchuk
China has successfully completed its fifth round of yuan-backed oil futures testing, may officially begin the contract by the end of this year. It seeks to challenge the dominance of the petrodollar.

Last week the Shanghai International Energy Exchange said the system has met all the listing requirements after rehearsals for futures trading denominated in the Chinese currency.

"An official launch during Christmas would be appropriate. The Western market would be quiet and allow the Shanghai exchange as well as Chinese investors to adjust in the early days," Chinese trader Yuan Quwei told Bloomberg.

Comment: Further reading:


Cult

EU Commission seeks demographic shift: Europe too white, mass third world migration must be 'new norm'

Dimitris Avramopoulos EU migration
© Getty ImagesEU Commissioner for Migration Dimitris Avramopoulos
Brussels has said that Europeans must accept mass migration from the third world as the "new norm", warning that neither walls nor policies will allow any part of the EU to remain "homogenous and migration-free".

"It's time to face the truth. We cannot and will never be able to stop migration," writes EU Commissioner for Migration Dimitris Avramopoulos, in a piece for POLITICO, published Monday entitled, "Europe's Migrants Are Here to Stay".


Comment: The "problem of migration" would not exist if Europe hadn't supported Washington's endless wars in Third World countries.


In it, the Eurocrat wrote "human mobility will increasingly define the 21st century", and that mass migration is an issue Brussels has committed Europe to "for the long haul", stating: "Migration is deeply intertwined with our policies on economics, trade, education and employment - to name just a few."

Comment: EU President Junker doubles down on the migration issue. Note the will if the people of Europe have no say in the matter.
Brussels is opening legal pathways for migrants "who want to come" says European Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker, declaring that Europe has a "clear need" for mass migration from Africa.

Speaking ahead of the EU-Africa summit this week, where leaders of EU and African nations will meet to discuss migration, he told Deusche Well that "if we don't offer legal ways of emigrating to Europe, and immigrating within Europe, we will be lost.

"If those who come - who are, generally speaking, the poor and needy - are no longer able to enter the house of Europe through the front door, they'll keep making their way in through the back windows."

Claiming that the continent "will clearly need immigration in the coming decades", he said EU nations "have to provide [Africans] who want to come, and are able to come, and whose situation makes it possible for them to come, with legal paths to get to Europe".

Asked by the German public broadcaster why there is "so much resistance" in Europe to the question of open borders with the third world, and why the EU has not yet "succeeded" in foisting mass immigration on countries across the continent, Juncker said Brussels has "told the member-states of their responsibility".


State sovereignty is apparently dead in the EU.


"We will see what the member-states do about it," he said, proclaiming mass immigration to be a "great challenge of our age" and hinting that countries in Europe will come around to taking the same view as the European Commission.

The former prime minister of Luxembourg denied DW's suggestion that "fear is overcoming reason" with regards to mass migration, pointing to developments such as the EU Parliament's recent adoption of changes to the bloc's asylum system which would permanently force third world migrants upon unwilling nations.

"Now it's up to the member-states to follow the path of wisdom," said Juncker in the interview, where he cryptically hinted there are plans for Europe and Africa to become more interlinked.

"Africa is not a continent that will become part of our history tomorrow. Africa has always been a part of history," he told interviewer Max Hofmann. "Certain Europeans just didn't see it that way."

The Commission president also remarked that "populists" are "dangerous", but argued that it is "far more dangerous" when mainstream parties adopt "harmful proposals" to cut migration from outside Europe, and other conservative policies.

"If the traditional parties follow the populists, they become populist themselves, which is a phenomenon we are already seeing in some EU countries," he said.

"No, we should not be afraid of the populists; we should embrace those they are fighting."

In the interview, Juncker did not expand on why Europe has a "clear need" for mass migration from the world's poorest and most turbulent nations, but other EU figures have previously stated that the continent needs millions of third world migrants so as to combat an "ageing population".

In making this calculation, it is unclear as to whether the European Commission has thought about the fact that migrants also get older, or the effect of an ever-expanding population on the continent's emissions, or if it has considered the impact of automation - at a time when experts warn millions of jobs will be taken by robots in the coming years.

In addition, recent research from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) found nothing to support the assertion that economies are harmed by ageing populations.

"There is no evidence of a negative relationship between ageing and GDP per capita," academics wrote in a paper entitled 'Secular Stagnation? The Effect of Aging on Economic Growth in the Age of Automation'.

"On the contrary, the relationship is significantly positive in many specifications," it adds.



Gold Coins

Tax reform delivers Conservative policy victories and dishonest Liberal hysteria

White House Christmas
In short, it's happening. Congress' bicameral conference committee unveiled a compromise tax reform bill on Friday, with votes in each chamber expected this week. The procedural rules forbid any further amendments, changes or "tweaks" to the now-finalized legislation; the next and last legislative step is a pair of up-or-down votes on an identical bill in the House and Senate (the House will vote tomorrow). If those votes succeed, the president will sign the bill into law, and Republicans will notch the first major legislative victory of the Trump era. All indications suggest that both votes will succeed. The House approved its own version of tax reform in mid-November by a margin of 227-205 -- so even if more Republicans (beyond last round's handful of dissenters) decide to defect this week (doubtful), Speaker Ryan and his leadership team have a fairly healthy cushion on which to rely. House passage should be a cinch.

The Senate has always been the heavier lift. The fact that Republicans aren't panicked over the absence of John McCain -- who is at home in Arizona as he battles an aggressive form of cancer -- suggests that Mitch McConnell has the votes, even without McCain. Let's look at the whip count: Only about five GOP Senators were potential 'nay' votes in the first place. Republicans hold a 52-48 edge in the upper chamber, meaning that leadership could lose up to two votes and still secure a successful outcome, with Vice President Pence poised to cast a decisive tie-breaking vote, if necessary. Two major pieces fell into place on Friday, as Marco Rubio won his battle to expand the refundable child tax credit in the final bill. He's now an "enthusiastic yes," with Mike Lee likely to follow. And Bob Corker, the outgoing Tennessee Senator who was the only Republican member to vote against the Senate-passed bill in early December, has announced his intention to get on board and help make tax reform the law of the land.

Comment:


SOTT Logo

Flashback Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau takes part in Toronto gay pride parade

toronto gay pride trudeau
Thousands cheered on Toronto's annual Pride parade Sunday and waved rainbow flags, though continued debate over the exclusion of the city's police force swirled amid the colourful procession that weaved its way through the downtown core.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, his wife Sophie Gregoire Trudeau and Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne were among the dignitaries who were marching in the procession. Trudeau was casually dressed in a blue blazer and pink shirt, with a temporary tattoo of a rainbow-coloured maple leaf on his left cheek. He waved at the thousands of people who lined both sides of the parade route down Yonge Street, frequently yelling out, "Happy Pride!"

"It's all about how we celebrate the multiple layers of identities that make Canada extraordinary and strong," Trudeau told reporters before the parade started.


Comment: This actually wasn't Trudeau's first participation at a 'pride' event: he broke the mold in 2016.


Stock Up

Wall Street Journal says tax cuts will grow the economy more than expected

trump
© AFP
Tax cuts are going to grow the economy by much more than expected.

That's the verdict of the Wall Street Journal's prestigious "Heard on the Street" column. Importantly, Heard on the Street is run by the news side of the WSJ, not its tax-cut loving editorial page. So there's no particular pro-tax cut or pro-Republican bias at work here.

Comment: Maybe the point should not so be much about whether the economy grows or not - but rather if the growth will translate into a better redistribution of wealth among the middle and working classes.


Cell Phone

D.C. woman accuses Congressman Ruben Kihuen of sexual harassment for flirting

Rep. Ruben Kihuen, D-Nev.
© Jeff ScheidRep. Ruben Kihuen, D-Nev. addresses a group during Immigrant Heritage Month celebration at the Asian Culture Alliance/Center on Saturday, June 10, 2017.
A 24-year-old woman who works at a Washington, D.C. firm that did business with Nevada Rep. Ruben Kihuen's campaign said the freshman congressman made unwanted overtures and asked overly personal questions of her this fall while his campaign was a client of her firm.

The woman, who asked not to be identified because she fears it could jeopardize her future career prospects, is the fourth to come forward with accounts of unwanted advances from the 37-year-old Democratic lawmaker and the first to publicly describe interactions that happened after he was elected to Congress. The House Ethics Committee announced Friday that it would open an investigation into allegations of sexual harassment against Kihuen; the congressman said he welcomed a chance to clear his name, although he announced on Saturday that he would not seek re-election because he claimed allegations would distract from running a campaign.

The woman described to The Nevada Independent conduct that she said made her feel flustered and uncomfortable, including Kihuen asking at the office why she didn't have a boyfriend, asking if she lived alone and offering to help her move up in her career - something she interpreted as a possible suggestion for sexual favors.

Comment: So now we have a Congressman being accused of trying to pick up women. What a sleazebag. All it seems he's guilty of is not understanding the appropriate place for this kind of behaviour and maybe being a little more persistent than saner heads would deem acceptable. But it's not a crime and these women would probably be well advised to simply learn to say "stop," taking it to the proper authorities if the behaviour persists. But shaming people in the press is apparently the new first course of action rather than a last resort. See also:


Mr. Potato

Pelosi fails to show up on tax cut protest after only a handful of people show up

Pelosi
© Joshua Roberts / ReutersHouse Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi
A handful of folks are really steamed that Republican lawmakers are planning to lower taxes, and they gathered in tiny conference room on Capitol Hill where House Minority Speaker Nancy Pelosi was slated to speak Monday.

But the demonstration was so weak, MSNBC reports, Pelosi didn't even bother to show up.


Comment: She probably didn't show up because she was hiding in a bunker, since she thinks Republican tax cuts are "the end of the world".