In short,
it's happening.
Congress' bicameral conference committee unveiled a compromise tax reform bill on Friday, with votes in each chamber expected this week. The procedural rules forbid any further amendments, changes or "tweaks" to the now-finalized legislation; the next and last legislative step is a pair of up-or-down votes on an identical bill in the House and Senate (the House will vote tomorrow). If those votes succeed, the president will sign the bill into law, and Republicans will notch the first major legislative victory of the Trump era. All indications suggest that both votes will succeed. The House approved its own version of tax reform in mid-November
by a margin of 227-205 -- so even if more Republicans (beyond last round's handful of dissenters) decide to defect this week (doubtful), Speaker Ryan and his leadership team have a fairly healthy cushion on which to rely. House passage should be a cinch.
The Senate has always been the heavier lift. The fact that Republicans aren't panicked over
the absence of John McCain -- who is at home in Arizona as he battles an aggressive form of cancer -- suggests that
Mitch McConnell has the votes, even without McCain. Let's look at the whip count: Only about five GOP Senators were potential 'nay' votes in the first place. Republicans hold a 52-48 edge in the upper chamber, meaning that leadership could lose up to two votes and still secure a successful outcome, with Vice President Pence poised to cast a decisive tie-breaking vote, if necessary. Two major pieces fell into place on Friday, as Marco Rubio won
his battle to expand the refundable child tax credit in the final bill. He's now an "
enthusiastic yes," with Mike Lee likely to follow. And Bob Corker, the outgoing Tennessee Senator who was the
only Republican member to vote against the Senate-passed bill in early December, has
announced his intention to get on board and help make tax reform the law of the land.
Comment: The "four pillars" as defined by the document: protect the homeland, promote U.S. prosperity, peace through strength, advancing U.S. influence. The biggest threats? Russia and China, who seek to "shape a world antithetical to our interests and values": State Senator Richard Black is skeptical, believing Trump has reversed on his campaign promises and caved in to the war hawks. He told RT: Russian MPs have responded with statements like these: Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Hua Chunying responded: And the Kremlin: Overall, there are some slight shifts in the right direction here (seeing Russian and China as rivals, not simply enemy threats, with the camouflaged olive branch of cooperation in some spheres), wrapped in the clothes of "more of the same". American exceptionalism lite, perhaps? See also: