SOTT Focus:

Joe Quinn on Anniversary of Soleimani's Assassination: 'Open Diplomatic Channels Suggest Trump Liaised With Iranian Leadership Prior to Hit'

Sott.net
Sun, 03 Jan 2021 15:27 UTC

One among several funeral processions in Iran for Qasem Soleimani in early January 2020.

Iran is commemorating the American (and, no doubt, Israeli-inspired) assassinations of IRGC commander General Qasem Soleimani and Iraqi Popular Mobilization Committee commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis outside Baghdad Airport on January 2nd 2020. As part of their coverage, Iran's PressTV invited Sott.net editor Joe Quinn to share his thoughts on the bloody event.

As readers can infer from what Joe was saying when the discussion was ended, it seems likely to us that the 'diplomatic channel' that was open at the time between the US and Iranian governments didn't just produce agreement on the extent of Iranian 'vengeance' after the drone strike on Baghdad Airport (specifically, the Iranian missile barrage against the largest US airbase in Iraq) - the Trump administration may also have arranged with Iranian leadership before the drone strike to 'take out' Soleimani.

Such 'conspiring with the enemy', understandably, is not something that ordinary Iranians or supporters of Iranian policy in the Middle East would readily accept. But if what Joe is saying is correct - that Soleimani's enthusiasm in 'gunning for Israel' was alarming not just Israel but Iranian leaders who know what Israel is capable of - then it can be understood that motivation indeed existed within Iranian leadership for removing the general.

Perhaps, in being 'too successful for his own good', Soleimani was viewed as a domestic political threat. He was, by all accounts, de facto the second most powerful man in that country - behind Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. History is replete with stories of rising, popular military leaders becoming victims of palace intrigues as 'the status quo' seeks to maintain its position and head off 'threats to the throne'.

But short of accusing Iranian leadership of what would effectively amount to fratricide, a clue to what was probably the main motivating factor was ironically provided by Donald Trump, who stated simply at the time that he ordered the hit "to stop a war, not start one."

As much as Iranian rhetoric is couched in 'defending the values of the 1979 Islamic revolution', 'unseating the Great Satan (USA) from the region', and 'wiping the Zionist entity from the pages of time', all this is essentially for domestic political consumption. It is nationalist propaganda for sustaining popular morale and faith in the 'mandate to rule' of the Iranian government - and a big element of that concerns drawing in support for righting the injustices of a Western-dominated Middle East.

Behind this lies 'realpolitik' and cooperation with 'enemies' regarding the country's nuclear program, the development of its infrastructure and natural resources, and its integration as a key node in the Eurasian integration project led by China. Iranian leaders - like all others - balance ideology with long-term goals, and in their case they are wary of setting off - accidentally or otherwise - the Israelis, whose 400+ nukes and (regionally) unmatched technological strengths, combined with their well-known 'Samson Option' of 'taking everyone down with us if we feel existentially threatened', constitutes a dangerous foe that is capable of every dirty trick from targeted assassinations to 'industrial accidents'.

Soleimani's remarkable regional successes in bringing together an anti-Israeli 'Axis of Resistance' likely represented - from Israel's vantage point - an encroaching 'red line' beyond which they would do something abominable (or make it look like someone else did). Either way, the US would be drawn into some almighty mess and the Middle East become a glass parking lot. That alone provided motivation for Trump, whose administration sought to draw down, not scale up, US military involvement in "sand and death."

And so, in assassinating Soleimani, Israel got what it wanted, the US avoided what it did not want, and Iran put an end to the threat of military overreach, and converted Soleimani's popularity into martyrdom for the political rather than military cause.

For more on Joe's analysis of the assassination of Soleimani, see here:

What War Was Trump Trying to Stop by Killing Iranian General Soleimani?

For Joe's take on the subsequent downing of a Ukrainian Airlines in Tehran when Iran attacked the US airbase in Iraq, see here:

Was Iranian Missile Operator Tricked Into Shooting Down The Ukrainian Airlines Plane Over Tehran?

Reader Comments

lilies · 2021-01-03T21:02:06Z

(excerpt from the best TV Show on the planet: Ertugrul, Season 1, Episode: 70)

To Our Great Hero Major General Qasem Soleimani:

"He drank from the fountain of martyrdom,

God's glory is great.

He succeeded in this trial called life

with his honor.

He found the true way [and walked proudly on that path during his whole life]

and become a martyr on this path.

For this, we do not deem him as dead.

He is one of the alive in God's presence.

Amen! "

..

Dear General Qasem Soleimani, we'll see you on the other side!

graeme15b · 2021-01-03T21:33:39Z

Perhaps, in being 'too successful for his own good', Soleimani was viewed as a domestic political threat. He was, by all accounts, de facto the second most powerful man in that country - behind Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. History is replete with stories of rising, popular military leaders becoming victims of palace intrigues as 'the status quo' seeks to maintain its position and head off 'threats to the throne'.

Makes sense. The American response, or lack thereof after the missile attack on the largest US military base in Iraq, and the playing down of the casualties, and Iran's response (barrage of missiles) which was extremely surgical, supports that view, I think.

Perhaps, some find it hard to understand that there are some backdoor channels of communication between enemy regimes? Like Joe says, these things are more complicated than meets the eye.

General Qasem Soleimani was a smart man, and he must have been alert to the danger, and if so, then perhaps he had other ideas?

Rowan Cocoan · 2021-01-03T21:47:40Z

Joe: Good points about how much he was actually achieving. "Changing the power dynamics."

Love the term Trump's ' first administration'. Love 'rabid dog'.

As to whoever (I forget his name, too), he's playing the Can'tifa/BLM BS card of 'they are trying to' genocide (whatever he said) us, which is BS - total overreach. STUPID!

IMHO, his point that Gen. S was helping in Palestine v. IsRaHell only amplifies the points that you've made though he tried to frame them otherwise . . . from London? Whatever.

He's implying that you said that that the assassination made sense - you did not. Etc. I could go off on errors of logic but it seems like he's erroneously conflating what you said with what THE U.S.A. did! Argh!

I keep expecting him to call you "Joe Quinnstein." Strange.

Love your analysis of the all-too-often-undiscussed realpolitik. (Cool, you just said it.)

Good job!

R.C.

P.s., Love the accent. So much better than our too . . . harsh, (dare I say) Germanic . .. American ones.

RC

Brakar · 2021-01-04T00:16:47Z

some leaders just hate the fact they are unmusical; [Link]

adipocere · 2021-01-04T01:47:56Z

While Joe may be correct that the net effect of the assassination is precisely this, I do feel like there are a lot of mental gymnastics going on here to windowdress Trump's crude posturing for Israel, and by virtue massage his own cognitive dissonance for having become sympathetic and susceptible the most sophisticated bi-partisan propaganda exercise in human history. Trump doubled or nearly tripped his "rival" WaPo owner Bezo's fortune. Half of Beirut was blown up and it was a blip on the radar. People around the world are under bioterror house arrest while the govts/central banks are demolishing the worlds economies. This all happened under Trump. It could only have happened under a such an underdog, or dark horse. Sometimes Joe, a spade is just a spade. And Trump is literally the trump in spades.

ps: WE ARE ALREADY AT WAR WITH IRAN.

Rowan Cocoan · 2021-01-04T05:46:13Z

adipocere Half of Beirut was blown up and it was a blip on the radar.

Indeed. Much too forgotten.

RC

Joe · 2021-01-08T10:31:33Z

adipocere Not sure how any of that relates to my point in the article/interview.

smertzasmert · 2021-01-04T05:41:14Z

unconvincing that Iran would collude w USA to assassinate any patriot

Ursh · 2021-01-04T10:17:56Z

a warning for what to whom ?

zman · 2021-01-04T15:04:14Z

While I am aware that there had been rumors that Soleimani had become extremely popular at home, as well as abroad, and that some officials in Tehran were concerned over this, it does not expressly follow that they were afraid of him. Any reference to any such fears are rumors only and one should be wary of disinfo. Not that there isn't any chance of this being possible, just that if the people ever got wind of such a thing, it would be the end of most of the government. But there were other things that do not necessarily point to collusion. Like the patrolling of US F-35s along the Iranian border observed by Russia the evening before the assassination. If it was a total setup, would that be necessary or wise? Then the involvement of G4S at the airport? Regardless, the net benefactor was not the US or Iranian politicians, it was Israel. As well, it is pretty well known and accepted that Israel is too chicken shit to do their dirty work by themselves, they always find a way to include the US. Coupled with the extreme ass kissing of Nutsack by the Blathering Buffoon, it is difficult to imagine that this was not yet another motel-room moment. More likely, Israel persuaded Trump to go ahead, threatening to start something themselves and drag us into it if he didn't. Soleimani was the biggest threat to Israel and his results and tactics scared the hell out of them. Trump bought it and obliged them, thus his statement on avoiding war, is my take. Yes, anything is possible and I would not doubt that this could have happened as postulated, however unlikely. But, all things considered, I'd have to just leave it in Trump and Nutsacks lap. As Adipocere said, sometimes it is what it looks like...and it looks like yet another gift to Nutsack and his criminal state...at the expense of the US military.

Niall · 2021-01-04T19:17:10Z

Another thing to consider is that normal security protocols protected Soleimani, until they didn't. Surely if a US or Israeli drone could have taken him out before then, it would have. Some kind of understanding has to be communicated between two countries' governments (even two bitter rivals) before someone whacks a leading figure of one or the other country. Otherwise they'd be killing each other on a regular basis.

Many Western leaders want to whack Putin, but to do so, they'd need a pre-arranged guarantee from Russian loyalists that they wouldn't counter-attack via assassinations (or worse). That's why they generally don't. The costs are too high. But if you get inside information on how much it might cost you, well, then you can negotiate a price and budget for it...

Rowan Cocoan · 2021-01-04T19:26:13Z

Niall

well, then you can negotiate a price and budget for it...

Exactly. As they say, everything has a price.

They likewise say that everyone has a price, but I'd say about things evil that SOTTypes don't. For example, no amount of $ could make me (insert evil act here). - hell, burn my house down, I still would not. That's why I generally dislike the expression that everyONE has a price.

RC

balboa schwartz · 2021-01-04T19:49:22Z

Rowan Cocoan E.M.Forster " If I had to choose between betraying my country or betraying my friend, I hope I should have the guts to betray my country."

graeme15b · 2021-01-04T19:57:26Z

Niall

Many Western leaders want to whack Putin, but to do so, they'd need a pre-arranged guarantee from Russian loyalists that they wouldn't counter-attack via assassinations (or worse). That's why they generally don't. The costs are too high.

True that, but they also know that Putin isn't a one man band.

LMAO · 2021-01-04T19:58:22Z

Niall thought provoking.Thanks.

11 And have no fellowship with the unfruitful works of darkness, but rather reprove them.

12 For it is a shame even to speak of those things which are done of them in secret.

Eph 5

Niall · 2021-01-04T20:08:44Z

Niall IF Iran had walked its talk about avenging Soleimani's death with attempts on the lives of senior US and Israeli officials, IF Iran had killed US troops during its missile attack against Ain al-Assad airbase in Iraq, IF Iran had lived up to its promise of a sustained bombing and sabotage campaign against US assets in the Middle East through 2020... then I might believe Tehran was taken by complete surprise.

Brakar · 2021-01-04T23:37:09Z

Niall a plausible explanation imo. on the other hand; us/i/sa/et al do have good enough intel to make very good estimates on how the iranians might react to any given provocation. they do not have to rely on... much. then; by default iran is forced to play the underdog game. they do not want to loose the little support they still do have from china/russia/europe. i think they have been playing their hand as good as humanly possible so far. then we will see what happens next. (i just hope we will not see full blown wars).

Brakar · 2021-01-05T00:01:36Z

Brakar i think the various parties are just trying to make up "gamechanging" events. then; the oppnonent(s) may choose if they want to change their "game" -or not.

Brakar ·

shit.

· 2021-01-05T00:05:20Z

Brakar · 2021-01-05T00:13:20Z

play more music; [Link] and have more sex while you still can

smertzasmert · 2021-01-05T08:23:38Z

some believe here that retaliation should be direct and immediate---a peculiar amerikan belief. Persians are too cultured and intelligent to fall into such a childish trap. They have always taken the long view. while solemni united factions his successor has failed to; the more radical factions are now actively ambushing amerikan convoys, sending missiles at the US embassy. that Iran now directly challenged US by confiscating a S Korean vessel ---a US colony, demonstrates that amerika is a paper tiger

Niall · 2021-01-05T21:37:39Z

Some believe that Iran and the US/Israel are mortal enemies - thus would never cooperate, under any circumstances - and forget the Iran-Contra Affair.

Brakar · 2021-01-05T22:16:55Z

Niall i believe that iran and us/israel are mortal enemies. but i still think there might be room for open or concealed cooperation between various parties, like what you are pointing at. i do not disagree with you. just poining at a possible alternative explanation.

GhostintheShell ·

Stupid

· 2021-01-06T02:05:29Z

Lemuel Gulliver · 2021-01-06T07:04:07Z

Joe,

A brilliant deduction, which ties together loose ends. Of course - it makes perfect sense that Trump took out Soleimani to pre-empt the Israelis from attacking Iran, which would have led to an inevitable war into which the USA would inevitably have been pulled, and the ayatollahs were pre-consulted and sacrificed Soleimani to prevent this, but you have missed the critical piece of the puzzle, which explains WHY.

The answer is in four words: MV (motor vessel) Iran Deyanat, a ship which belonged to the IRGC Al-Quds Force.

Soleimani became head of the IRGC Al-Quds Force in 1998.

On August 21, 2008. Somali pirates hijacked the MV Iran Deyanat in the Gulf of Aden, and took it into port in Somalia. It was coming from China, with a cargo of "scrap iron" destined for Rotterdam. On the deck were sealed containers, which the pirates greedily surmised contained Chinese electronics, and so they broke into them. Inside they found sand - yes, sand.

In a day or two, the pirates began to show signs of extreme and severe radiation poisoning. They vomited, their hair and teeth began to fall out, and sixteen of them (I believe) ultimately died. The containers contained not sand, but high-level Chinese radioactive waste, rigged as massive dirty bombs. From the Gulf of Aden, the Deyanat would have passed up the Red Sea, through the Suez Canal, and closely offshore of Israel in the Mediterranean, from where the wind blows almost constantly onshore from the sea. Only the one-in-a-thousand lucky chance of its being hijacked by pirates prevented this.

One month prior to this, Israel had conducted a nationwide civil defense drill, practicing for a scenario in which Israel was attacked with a radioactive dirty bomb. Do you believe in coincidences? I do not.

Every navy in the world sent a frigate or two to patrol off the coast of Somalia to ensure the Deyanat did not leave port - India, China, Britain, Holland, Russia, Spain, Italy, Norway, the USA, you name it - there must have been twenty or thirty navies patrolling the Gulf of Aden to bottle up the Deyanat in port. Suddenly, after three days, not one more word was spoken or printed in any of the world's media about the Deyanat.

What actually happened is that the USA ransomed it from the pirates, took it to Oman, where the US has a naval base. There the containers of nuclear waste were removed and buried deep in the desert, the crew were sent home, the ship was decontaminated, and a new crew took it on to Rotterdam. Wikipedia will tell you that after the ship was ransomed, it arrived in Rotterdam one month later. It does not take a month to sail from Somalia to Rotterdam. Wikipedia will not tell you where the ship was in that time.

The curious thing is that Israel never made a public fuss about this. They never pointed to this foiled attack by the IRGC as the excuse they had been waiting for for years, to wage a war on Iran. Why not??

Because Israel's Achilles heel is that it is a nation of immigrant Jews, who, if they ever realized how close they had come to death, and how lucky they were to have dodged the bullet thanks to a bunch of raghead pirates, would have fled the country back to their nations of origin by their hundreds of thousands. Israel already has a demographic-time-bomb problem, in that Arabs have many more children than Jews, and Israel needs every living Jewish body it can get. So after the initial furor, the entire story was hushed up and totally buried in the media.

Who planned this? It had to have been Soleimani, or at least he must have approved of the plan. The ayatollahs, who have banned nuclear weapons as being Satanic, were probably as horrified as anyone else at this reckless and insane plan - after all, the wind carrying clouds of radioactive dust would not stop at the border of Jordan or Saudi Arabia, but would carry its radioactive load for a thousand miles over the entire Middle East.

So, it makes perfect sense that the ayatollahs, if told by the USA that Israel's patience was exhausted, it was no longer willing to let Soleimani go on living, and was preparing for war, would consent to having him bumped off by the USA, and to conduct a show of retaliation, to soothe the anger of the Iranian public. After all, he was a national hero and much beloved, and the ayatollahs themselves could probably not get rid of him - their government leaks like a sieve - without causing a popular uprising.

Thank you, Joe, for pointing out the obvious which nobody, including myself, could see - that the whole assassination and retaliation was a piece of Kabuki Theater to get rid of a loose cannon, Soleimani, who might even have been planning some other dangerous escapade when he was killed - we will never know.

Great job. - LG.

Buffalo_Ken · 2024-04-14T05:10:02Z

Uh - it seems missiles are in the air - as well as drones - in my opinion after the fine general was assassinated somebody unkept hacked the weapon of a Iranian soldier and then that plane full of Canadians and Ukrainians was shot down.

So, seems fair to conclude:

Thou shall reap what thee sows.

Buffalo_Ken · 2024-04-14T05:19:29Z

Buffalo_Ken - is this and was this a coincidence I query after that fact for fuck sake.

Buffalo_Ken · 2024-04-14T05:16:43Z

Moreover - this article reads as an apology for the article I was mainly seeking but can't find on sott.net easy.

On top of that - when the hell is the unicorn gonna have a chance to express views - and seriously.

thee shall reap what thee sows

~

BUSTER is the name

of the unicorn - and Buster has a place at the table proven

Do U?

“

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SOTT Focus:

Joe Quinn on Anniversary of Soleimani's Assassination: 'Open Diplomatic Channels Suggest Trump Liaised With Iranian Leadership Prior to Hit'

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