Did the original lockdown of January 2020 work in China? It was the original example of how extreme restrictions could be effective in 'controlling' the new virus,
praised and commended by the WHO in its
visit the following month. Even if there was uncertainty at the time about whether Western nations could or should emulate the authoritarian state, there was no doubt among all the main players that China's intervention had been successful and brought the virus under control. It was this apparent success that inspired governments around the world to take the plunge and follow China's lead, beginning with Italy in February and March, and it likely lay behind the constant sense over the following years that restrictions
should be working, even when they plainly were not.
So did China's original extreme lockdown work? My colleague Dr. Noah Carl is
among those who think it did. Noah accepts the
well-attested evidence that lockdowns in the rest of the world largely didn't work. But he argues that it did in Wuhan. Initially he implies the difference was due to the strictness of China's lockdown ("To begin with, China's lockdown was far stricter"), but his main position, stated in his conclusion, is that lockdowns
with border controls when imposed early enough can stop the virus in its tracks. Thus: "When prevalence was relatively low, countries had a shot at containing Covid, so long as there were strict border controls in place."
To defend this point of view he points to Australia and New Zealand, which seem to have kept the virus at bay until 2022 by following this method.
The main problem to my mind with the claim that China's lockdown worked by stopping the virus in its tracks is that
none of the rest of East Asia had a large wave in 2020, despite nowhere else imposing a lockdown like in Wuhan, and some places like Japan not imposing one at all. The rest of China did not have a lockdown like the one imposed in Wuhan, or initially any restrictions at all - that was supposedly part of the success, that the extreme Wuhan measures 'contained' the virus and protected the rest of the country, hence Italy initially imposing lockdown in a local area and then just in the north of the country.
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