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Israel Pauses Iran Strikes At Trump's Request

Israel's N12 News is reporting that Israel is halting strike on Iran at President Trump's request. There are widespread initial reports that Israeli forces are indeed pausing the attacks, which persisted overnight through Monday morning, and included attack on a major petrochemical complex. However, the latest Israeli messaging has included a warning on the Lebanon front, per Bloomberg:
Senior Israeli official says Israel is stopping strikes in Iran at Donald Trump's request, but confirms operations in southern Lebanon will continue at full intensity in the coming days. The official also warns that Dahieh in Beirut could be targeted if attacks on Israeli settlements and civilians continue.
There are also emerging reports (via CBS) that Trump did not order any US defensive efforts to protect Israel from the latest Iranian ballistic missile attacks - which were the first against Israel since the early April ceasefire.

Meanwhile, in a fresh message from Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei, Iran says "Without a doubt ... the actions of the Zionist regime in the region cannot be separated from U.S. policies." Tehran is rejecting the attempts of the Trump administration to distance the US from Israeli actions: "No one believes that the Zionist regime would carry out any action without prior coordination and cooperation with the United States," Baqaei added.

Trump: 'Stop Shooting'

A big question remains is if this flare-up in major fighting, which has featured the first direct attacks between Iran and Israel since the April ceasefire took effect, will be short-lived or whether it will endure and escalate into sustained war.

So far the situation is showing signs it could be short-lived, after early Monday morning President Trump urged Israel and Iran to immediately stop "shooting" in a Truth Social post. He also expressed that this musts be done "quickly" and is still talking up a "final" peace deal - which at this moment looks as distant as ever. Iran is signaling it is ready to get back to ceasefire, but Israel is again threatening the Beirut suburbs.

Here's what Trump wrote in a couple of brief Monday posts:
Israel and Iran must immediately stop "shooting." ...and:

Both sides, Israel and Iran, are looking to do an immediate CEASEFIRE! Final negotiations on "Peace" are proceeding, subject to ignorance or stupidity getting in its way. The Blockade will remain in place, and in full force and effect, until a "Final Deal" is reached. Things should move quickly. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
Big Round of Israeli Retaliation Airstrikes on Iran

Videos of Israel's further daytime attacks on sites across Iran have emerged, after Iran sent ballistic missile waves on Israel on Sunday, in response for the IDF renewing airstrikes on Beirut.


For now, Tehran is claiming the current round is over, with Iran's armed forces having announced the end of military operations against Israel while warning of "harsher" attacks if Israel resumes strikes on Lebanon, according to the semi-official Fars news agency.

The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters spelled out the Islamic Republic's latest justification:
"Following the aggressions and acts of mischief by the brutal Zionist regime in southern Lebanon and the Dahieh area, carried out with the support of criminal America, the powerful armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran, in support of the oppressed people of Lebanon, delivered a painful response to this regime."
And there's a new message from Iranian President Pezeshkian, saying:
"Diplomacy and defense are the two wings of national power; we have neither left the field nor the negotiating table... We will defend the rights of the nation with authority and will not retreat in the face of any threat."
Massive Iranian Petrochemical Complex Hit

Israel, however, made sure to leave a massive mark before any cooling off. The Israeli military confirmed it attacked Iran's sprawling Mahshahr petrochemical complex on Monday, marking its first strike on the critical asset since the April 7 ceasefire agreement.

The Bandar Imam Petrochemical Complex, as it is formally known, is widely seen as one of the crown jewels of Iran's energy sector. Tucked near the southern city of Mahshahr and Bandar Imam Khomeini - a vital industrial port on the Persian Gulf - the sprawling complex consists of more than 50 separate petrochemical plants producing roughly 72 million tons of products annually, according to Iran's oil ministry.


Iranian state media reported that one specific installation, the Karun petrochemical plant, was hit twice Monday morning. While a local official told Fars that no casualties were reported, the facility sustained notable structural damage.


Comment: Note the term 'structural damage'. Nothing about diminished capacity. Oil refineries are massive installations, hard to seriously damage, relatively easy to repair. Russia has proved that time and again. So has Iran.


IRGC: 'Dangerous Game'

The response from Iran's elite military branch was immediate and ominous. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps condemned the precise strike as a "dangerous game" - openly threatening to expand the scope of how it retaliates against Israel, explicitly noting that future targets will include energy-related sites.

Israel already compiled a visual strike map showing targets it hit in Iran overnight into Monday:


With both sides testing the absolute limits of the April truce, the macro risk to regional energy infrastructure has officially rocketed back to the forefront, as Trump desperately tries - or is at least appearing to - walk the two sides back from the ledge.


Comment: The Houthis enter the chat:


Vital Bab-el-Mandeb Strait (Red Sea) Under Threat: Houthis Declare "Total Ban" On Israeli Ships

On the maritime chokepoint front, Iran-backed Houthis declared a full ban on Israeli vessels in the southern Red Sea, warning that any Israeli ship (or linked ship) will be seen as a military target:

"First: We declare a complete and total ban on maritime navigation for the Israeli enemy in the Red Sea, and we consider all enemy movements to be military targets for our Armed Forces from the moment this statement is issued."
The statement continued, "Second: We affirm that we will meet escalation with escalation, and that our military operations will escalate in line with events, the battle, and in conjunction with the axis of Jihad and Resistance."

houthis yemen block bab el mandeb strait
Closure of Bab-el-Mandeb would hit the world's trade artery, while Hormuz has already disrupted the world's energy artery.
The announcement is similar to the Houthis' late-2023 campaign, when rebel forces attacked ships linked to Israel or bound for Israeli ports in or around the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. They framed the attacks as retaliation for the Gaza war. Potential disruption of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait in the southern Red Sea will only add to the headaches for global maritime trade, as it is a critical sea route for Asia-to-Europe commerce and Gulf energy exports.

At its narrowest point, the strait is about 18 miles wide, making commercial vessels extraordinarily vulnerable to suicide drones, missiles, mines, and small boats.