T
he publisher of the Japanese translation of
Ages of Discord (about to be published) requested a foreword, which presented me with a welcome opportunity to review how this book has fared, and to place it within my overall — long-term — research program attempting
to understand the causes of recurrent waves of social and political instability that afflict all complex human societies organized as states. What follows is a lightly edited version of this foreword.
The story begins more than 20 years ago. At that time, my colleagues and I had made substantial strides in understanding past crises — the Age of Revolutions during the long nineteenth century, the General Crisis of the seventeenth century, the late Medieval crisis. Our research also reached back in history to the crises of Antiquity.
This work was eventually summarized in Secular Cycles, co-authored with Sergey Nefedov and published by Princeton University Press in 2009.
But even before the publication of
Secular Cycles, as I gave research talks in various academic departments on this topic, I was almost invariably asked:
so, where are we in the cycle? For awhile I resisted such inquiries, answering that I wished to keep my focus on past societies in order to avoid entering the minefield of contemporary contentious politics. But at some point repeated questions reached a critical mass.
I decided to investigate how well the theory developed for pre-industrial states and empires would fare when applied to contemporary societies, which have clearly evolved a lot during the past two centuries. A natural focus of my investigation was the
United States, a society which I knew from the inside.
Comment: The war on concerned, involved parents continues.