The "incredibly high" excess death rate in 2022 should be urgently investigated by the Government, Australia's
top actuarial body has said.
According to new analysis of Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data by the Actuaries Institute, there were 15,400 excess deaths during the first eight months of the year, with around one third having no link to Covid.
This is 13% higher than expected, which is an "incredibly high number for mortality" according to Karen Cutter, spokeswoman for the institute's COVID-19 Mortality Working Group. It is "not clear" what is driving the increase, she said. "Mortality doesn't normally vary by more than 1-2%, so 13% is way higher than normal level."
"I'm not aware [of anything comparable] in the recent past but I haven't gone back and looked [historically]. They talk about the flu season of 2017 being really bad, and the mortality there was 1% higher than normal. So it's well outside the range of normal."
According to the
raw data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, there were 128,797 deaths from January 1st to August 31st, which was 18,671 or 17% higher than the historical average. Of those, 7,727 or 41% were attributed to Covid, leaving 10,944 non-Covid excess deaths.
The reason for the difference between the raw ABS data and the actuary figures is that, unlike with
ONS data in the U.K. which use a five-year average baseline, the actuaries use a
modelled baseline for calculating excess deaths. This aims to take into account trends like an ageing and growing population and improving health outcomes. The actuaries acknowledge that, compared to using the 2015-19 baseline, this results in a higher baseline and thus fewer excess deaths.
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