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Bad Guys

Saudi Crown Prince's purge consolidates control, eliminates rivals, but puts govt at risk

mohamed bin salman
© REUTERS/ Bandar Algaloud/Courtesy of Saudi Royal Court
The round-up of Saudi Princes which took place on 5th November 2017 is simply the latest in a succession of purges initiated by Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler, Deputy Crown Prince Muhammed bin Salman, as he tries to consolidate his position by getting his hands on all of Saudi Arabia's levers of power.

As is often the case in purges of this kind, a large number of people have been rounded up on 'corruption charges' (the standard pretext used to conceal power struggles of this sort) in order to conceal the identity of the true target of the purge.

That target was Prince Mutaib bin Abdullah, the commander of Saudi Arabia's National Guard, the third in the triad of defence and security agencies which underpin the rule of Saudi Arabia's Royal Family.

Of these three the largest and most powerful is the Saudi military, which Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman controls directly as Saudi Arabia's Defence Minister.

The second is the Interior Ministry, which controls Saudi Arabia's police and law enforcement agencies.

Its former head, Prince Muhammad bin Nayef, was appointed Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince by Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman's own father, King Salman, in April 2015, shortly after King Salman succeeded to the throne following the death of King Abdullah, the previous Saudi King.

Comment: More on the recent events in Saudi Arabia: The Saudi royals have always been more pragmatic than ideological. They need the Wahhabi clergy, but they themselves are not necessarily fanatic ideologues. They're Western-educated and have been happy to make the best of both relationships: with the "democratic" West and their fanatic religious leaders. It's a constant balancing act, but in his moves to solidify power and secure a stable economic future (whether or not it works is another question), MBS is also pushing to create a more moderate image for his country. That in itself is probably a good thing - bringing Saudi Arabia more into the 21st century - but it will remain to be seen whether MBS only makes some things worse.

Saudi Arabia's relationship with the U.S. has never been one to encourage "moderation". But with closer relations with Russia (maybe Trump too is having an effect?), that raises the question: will Russia be able to encourage actual moderation, say, in Yemen? Maybe that has something to do with MBS's latest moves, aside from just his push for more control?


Info

Israel kicks off 'largest-ever aerial military drill', as Saudis consider missile strike 'act of war'

Israeli fighter jets

Today, Israel kicked off its largest international aerial training exercise ever - coined:
Blue Flag 2017.

Air-forces from nine countries with about 50 planes are now starting to drill in the most southern region of the country utilizing Uvda Air Base in Israel. Teams from India, the United States, Greece, Poland, France, Italy and Germany with be flying over 300 sorties simulating 'real war'.


According to Israel Defense,
Throughout the first week of the two-week-long exercise, the international aircrews will acclimate themselves to the base and get to know each other. Throughout the second week, the participants will rehearse complex scenarios and coalition flights.

During some of the sorties, the participants will fly against the "Flying Dragon" Squadron, the IAF's aggressor squadron, which will simulate enemy forces via "enemy" aircraft, SAM (Surface-to-air missile) batteries and MANPADS (Man-portable air-defense systems).

Comment: See also: Saudi Arabia claims failed Yemen missile attack an act of aggression from Iran


Eye 1

Second Saudi Prince confirmed killed during firefight as authorities attempted to arrest him - Regime orders arrest of 2 "Syrian opposition" leaders

Saudi Prince
Following the death of Prince Mansour bin-Muqrin in a helicopter crash near the Yemen border yesterday, the Saudi Royal Court has confirmed the death of Prince Abdul Aziz bin Fahd - killed during a firefight as authorities attempted to arrest him.

The death has been confirmed by the Saudi royal court.

The Duran and Al-Masdar News both report that the prince died when his security contingent got into a firefight with regime gunmen attempting to make an arrest.

Prince Aziz (44) who was the youngest son of King Fahad.

Comment: Riyadh has also ordered the arrest of two "Syrian" "opposition" leaders: Ahmed al-Jarba and Riad Hijab. ("Moderate Syrian opposition" = "Takfiri proxy revolutionaries".) Back when Plan A for Syria was still an option, Saudi Arabia supported Jarba and Hijab in their effort to destabilize Syria and turn it into an Islamic State. Now, they're being sought for money laundering and smuggling. Duran's Adam Garrie sums up what's going on:
While the MBS purges are self-serving first and foremost, they are also part of his desired pivot away from over-dependency on the US. By publicly attacking its former political proxies for Syria, Riyadh is clearly showing that its internal matters now take precedent over directly meddling in the wider Arab world.
Something big is brewing in Saudi Arabia. And the events of the past few days are only phase 1!


Gear

Iraq cabinet proposes budgetary cuts for Kurdish region

iraq kurds
© AP Photo/Bram Janssen, File
Iraq's cabinet proposed on Sunday to slash the Kurdish share of the country's revenue in the 2018 federal budget, a move that Kurdish officials said was aimed to further punish them for a Sept. 25 referendum on independence.

If approved, the budget would further damage the relationship between Baghdad and Erbil -- the semi-autonomous region's capital -- already at boiling point after the central government launched a military offensive last month that swiftly recaptured the oil-rich city of Kirkuk.

A preliminary draft document seen by Reuters and confirmed by three lawmakers and two Iraqi government officials shows the Kurdistan region's share of the 2018 budget trimmed to 12.6 percent, down from the 17 percent the region has traditionally been entitled to since the fall of Saddam Hussein.

Magnify

Boris Johnson comes under fire for supporting Iranian claim that jailed activist was 'teaching people journalism'

Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe
© PANazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe was jailed in Iran in 2016
False claims made by Boris Johnson about Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, a British mother who has been detained by Iran, may result in her being handed an extra five years in prison. The UK foreign secretary incorrectly said she was in the country to "train journalists" when she was actually holidaying.

Johnson told a select committee last week: "When I look at what Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe was doing, she was simply teaching people journalism, as I understand it." Following his comments, the 37-year-old woman was taken to an unscheduled court hearing in Iran, where Johnson's remarks were cited as proof of her guilt.

The charity worker, who was employed by the Thomson Reuters Foundation as a project manager, is already serving a five-year prison sentence. She now faces a further five years in jail on new charges of "propaganda against the regime."


Comment: How do we know these were false claims? Perhaps Johnson's blunder was that he inadvertently released more truth than fiction.


Newspaper

New report says MI5 missed their chance to stop Manchester suicide bomber

manchester attack candles
© Jonathan Nicholson / Global Look Press 69Candles lit in the aftermath of the Manchester Arena attack.
Intelligence services failed to act on tip-offs suggesting that the Manchester Arena suicide bomber should be put under surveillance as a "high priority target." MI5 was reportedly told of Salman Abedi's "suspicious behavior" prior to the deadly attack.

MI5 received at least two pieces of intelligence suggesting that Abedi posed a security threat, according to the Sunday Times. The discovery is part of an internal review commissioned by MI5 Director General Andrew Parker and Metropolitan Police Commissioner Cressida Dick, which examined intelligence that was obtained in advance of the attacks at the Manchester Arena in May, and London Bridge in June.


According to the paper, the review has sparked concerns among the intelligence community that the service could have stopped the attack, which killed 22 and was the deadliest since the 7/7 London bombings in 2005.

"There were a few calls made regarding several bits of intelligence which, if judged differently at the time, would have turned Abedi into a high-priority case," said an intelligence source quoted by the Sunday Times.

Eye 1

Saudi attorney general: Phase 1 of anti-corruption push complete, "a great deal of evidence" has been gathered

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
© ReutersRiyadh, Saudi Arabia
Detailed questioning of individuals taken into custody as part of a corruption probe is now taking place, according to the Saudi attorney general. He added that phase one of the probe is complete and "a great deal of evidence" has been gathered.

According to earlier reports in Saudi media, at least 11 Saudi princes and four incumbent ministers of the government were placed into custody. Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, one of the richest people in the world, is reportedly among those in custody as part of the corruption probe.

Comment: See also: A Saudi 'Night of the Long Knives'? Prince Salman's crackdown signals significant shifts in the kingdom


Newspaper

Sen. Feinstein admits there is no evidence of Trump-Russia campaign collusion

Dianne Feinstein
© Getty ImagesCalifornia Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein
Congress has been investigating possible Trump campaign collusion with the Kremlin for nearly 10 months, but a top Senate Democrat says she has still not seen evidence to support the allegation.

"Have you seen any evidence that this dirt, these emails, were ever given to the Trump campaign?" CNN's Jake Tapper asked California Sen. Dianne Feinstein on Sunday.

"Not so far," replied the Democrat, who is a member of the Senate Intelligence Committee and the ranking Democrat on the Senate Judiciary Committee.

Comment: Here's some more Feinstein for you. After being presented with some hilarious 'evidence' about supposed 'Russian interference' in the US elections by representatives of Google, Twitter and Facebook, Senator Feinstein switched to apocalyptic mode:
What we're talking about is a cataclysmic change. What we're talking about is the beginning of cyberwarfare. What we're talking about is a major foreign power with sophistication and ability to involve themselves in a presidential election and sow conflict and discontent all over this country. We are not going to go away, gentlemen. And this is a very big deal.
She has no evidence. But trust her, the world is coming to an end, and it's all Putin's fault.


Network

Iran and Russia developing sustainable partnership that goes well beyond countering US influence

Putin Khamenei
© Agence France-Presse
We wrote here in July that absent relief from US sanctions, Russian President Vladimir Putin would forge his own path in the Middle East by carefully working with and through regional powers, especially Iran.

So perhaps it is no surprise that when Putin met with Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Nov. 1, there seemed to be a meeting of the minds on regional developments, especially regarding Syria and Iraq, as well as agreement to deepening economic cooperation in many fields, including energy.

Putin continued his surge of regional energy diplomacy while in Tehran, following up on his reset in Iraq, as we reported last week. During Putin's visit to Tehran, Russia and Iran agreed to "strategic" energy deals worth as much as $30 billion for development of Iran's oil and gas fields, as well as research collaboration. With the agreement, Rosneft and Gazprom, the Russian energy giants, put themselves ahead of potential Western suitors in Iran. If the United States reimposes sanctions on Iran, Russian and Chinese energy companies are best positioned to run the field in meeting Iran's substantial energy investment needs.

Eye 2

Daesh leader al-Baghdadi reportedly departed Iraq for Syria in a taxi

Taxi
Regardless of all the reports that he has been eliminated, the supreme leader of the terrorist group Daesh (ISIS), Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, may be very much alive, riding in a taxi from Iraq to Syria.

The world's most notorious terrorist leader, self-styled Daesh 'caliph' Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has reportedly departed Iraq for Syria in what he though was the most inconspicuous mean of transport - a yellow taxi-cab, according to Egyptian newspaper Ad Dustour.

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has already allegedly fled from Iraq's Al Anbar Governorate to Deir ez-Zor Governate in Syria, the newspaper said, citing its sources in Iraqi intelligence.
To ensure the secrecy of his movements, al-Baghdadi reportedly used an inconspicuous yellow taxi-cab.

Comment: See also: Daesh confirms death of group leader al-Baghdadi