
© Philip Fong/AFP/Getty ImagesAsset values were priced for perfection.
The novel coronavirus has already had a significant impact on the global economy, which will worsen if the outbreak and the shutdowns designed to contain it continue for very long. But it's only an accelerant: If not Covid-19, as the disease caused by the virus is known, something else would have started the conflagration.
Shortfalls in revenue and cash flows, caused by the shutdowns, have simply exposed the vulnerabilities of a structurally unsound economic and financial system. A fall in revenue is problematic but manageable without debt. Unfortunately, in the aftermath of the 2008 crash, debt levels were increased rather than reduced, encouraged in part by low policy rates and the abundant liquidity engineered by central banks globally. Global debt as a percentage of GDP rose from around 250% in 2007 to 325% in 2019. Current debt levels are
triple what they were in 1999. Businesses and households, with declining or no income and high levels of borrowing, now face an existential struggle to meet large financial commitments.
A second problem is that, in the "everything bubble," asset prices were priced for perfection. Policymakers boosted the values of financial assets to increase economic activity via the wealth effect, and to support borrowing to protect financial institutions.
Comment: The situation is the same in the UK, and it's not like governments couldn't have foreseen it happening because it is simply a repeat of 2008: UK banks not lending government backed emergency loans to small businesses, up to a million may go under