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Global oil prices jump after Trump Administration puts Iran "on notice"

warships
© Jean-Paul Pelissier / Reuters
Global crude prices rose on Thursday after US National Security Advisor Michael Flynn said Washington is putting Tehran "on notice" in response to an Iranian missile test.

The senior administration official refused to rule out any options for a US response, including military intervention.

With the lifting of international sanctions over its nuclear program, Iran has been rapidly boosting oil exports in recent months exacerbating global overproduction.

Any response from Washington could cut Iranian crude supplies, sending oil prices higher.

Major crude benchmarks gained over a dollar, with Brent blend trading at $57.18 per barrel, showing the best performance since January 6. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate was seen at $54.13 per barrel, which is also the highest price since the first week of the year.

Brick Wall

'Football hooligans will be barred from Russia during 2018 World Cup' - Deputy PM Mutko

football soccer thugs
© Jean-Paul Pelissier / Reuters
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Vitaly Mutko says football hooligans will be refused entry to Russia during the 2018 World Cup, which will be held in the country.

"Those who want to support their team, but travel with some kind of ulterior motive to our country, will not be allowed entry to Russia," Mutko said, TASS reported.

According to Mutko, who is also chairman of the 2018 World Cup Local Organizing Committee (LOC), safety measures for the competition will be of the highest standard.

"The whole concept of safety was outlined by the Russian president [Vladimir Putin]. A special safety team has been put together for the tournament. I hope that the experience of our security organizations, garnered during other such tournaments including the Sochi 2014 Winter Olympics, will help us carry out a safe World Cup."

Mutko also explained that a blacklist of fans is under development based on a European Union pact and will be uniform for all European countries.

"Is there a list of such fans? A special agreement has been worked out by the European Union, which will have a list of supporters who will be barred from attending matches in Russia and other European countries. Such a list exists, and our security services will be involved with them," Mutko added.

Mutko's words echo those of the head of the Fan Safety Committee of the Russian Football Union, Vladimir Markin, and the head of the Russian National Anti-Terrorism Committee, Igor Kulyagin, who both recently expressed their desire to lead a safe World Cup.

Markin insisted there will not be a repeat of the violence that marred last summer's UEFA European Championships in France. In the lead-up to and following the Russia versus England fixture at the tournament, clashes broke out between hundreds of fans in Marseille.

Document

British Government's Brexit negotiation White Paper 'says nothing' and is 'too late'

Britain's Secretary of State
© Peter Nicholls / ReutersBritain's Secretary of State for Leaving the EU David Davis.
The British government has released its White Paper setting out its Brexit plans.

But Labour's shadow Brexit secretary Sir Keir Starmer has criticized the document, arguing it "says nothing." He said it was "produced too late in the day to ask meaningful questions."

"That is completely unacceptable," Starmer added.

The 77-page document, promised after pressure from MPs, outlines the government's 12 principles, including migration control, taking control of Britain's own laws, and protecting workers' rights.

Red Flag

Trump's arbitrary immigration ban sets chilling precedent

trump
© Getty
So Donald Trump is going to f**k them all. No excuses for such filthy words today. I'm only quoting the man whose Pentagon offices he just used to disgrace himself - and America. For it was Secretary of Defence James 'Mad Dog' Mattis who told Iraqis in 2003 that he came "in peace' - he even urged his Marines to be compassionate - but said of those who might dare to resist America's illegal invasion of their country: "If you f**k with me, I'll kill you all."

There's no getting round it. Call it Nazi, Fascist, racist, vicious, illiberal, immoral, cruel. More dangerously, what Trump has done is a wicked precedent. If you can stop them coming, you can chuck them out. If you can demand "extreme vetting" of Muslims from seven countries, you can also demand a "values test" for those Muslims who have already made it to the USA. Those on visas. Those with residency only. Those - if they are American citizens - with dual citizenship. Or full US citizens of Muslim origin. Or just Americans who are Muslims. Or Hispanics. Or Jews? Refugees one day. Citizens the next. Then refugees again.

No, of course, Trump would never visit such obscene tests on Jewish immigrants - for they would be obscene, would they not? -- and nor will he stop Christians from Muslim countries. America has always condemned sectarian states, but now Trump declares that he approves of sectarianism. Minorities will be welcome - the Alawites of Syria, to whom Bashar al-Assad belongs, will presumably not count, and I guess we can expect all US embassies to have three queues for visa applicants. One for Muslims, one for Christians, and a third marked 'Other'. That's where most of us will be standing in line. And by doing so, we will automatically give approval to this iniquitous system - and to Trump.

People

Putin visits Hungarian PM Orban to discuss current and prospective trade deals

Putin Orban
© Laszlo Balogh / ReutersRussian President Vladimir Putin and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban
Vladimir Putin is paying a return visit to Budapest, a year after Viktor Orban's trip to Moscow set the tone for enhanced bilateral cooperation. The two leaders, similarly unpopular in Brussels, are set to discuss current and prospective mutually lucrative trade deals.

The visit comes during tense times between the EU and Russia, which is facing an ongoing sanction regime coupled with an unprecedented NATO troop buildup on its borders. The global geopolitical situation is, according to Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto, however, way more favorable than during Putin's previous visit to the country in 2015.

Putin's first official trip in 2017 is set to bolster bilateral agreements reached during Orban's February 2016 visit to Moscow. The two leaders are expected to focus on joint economic and trade projects, according to Kremlin.

Putin and Orban will also likely discuss cooperation within the frameworks of the Nord Stream and Turkish stream gas pipeline projects, Russia's presidential aide, Yuri Ushakov told reporters on Wednesday.

About 85 percent of Hungary's gas flows in from Russia. In 2015, Putin and Orban signed a new gas agreement replacing a 20-year contract that had expired in December 2015. Hungary pays only for gas it actually consumes under the agreement, which proved to be very lucrative for low-demand consumers.

Another key issue, which is expected to be discussed during the visit is the expansion of the Paks nuclear power plant. Russia and Hungary signed an agreement on the construction of two additional reactors in January 2014. Eighty percent of the project's cost will be funded by a €10bn credit line from Russia, and work will be performed by Russian nuclear scientists. Budapest is currently awaiting approval of the project by EU bureaucrats who have been blocking it.

Cowboy Hat

American crude oil exports to hit all-time high under Trump

oil refinery
© Bret Hartman / ReutersAn oil refinery in Wilmington, California
American crude oil exports are poised to exceed four members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) this year, according to analysts polled by Bloomberg.

The United States, the world's biggest oil consumer, could export at least 800,000 barrels per day (bpd), the analysts said. This exceeds oil exports of OPEC members Libya, Qatar, Ecuador, and Gabon. In 11 months of 2016, the US exported 527,000 bpd, according to the Energy Information Administration data.

Asset management firm Macquarie told Bloomberg US oil production would reach 9.37 million bpd after the 5.6 percent slump to 8.87 million in 2016. Turner, Mason & Co. and Lipow Oil Associates forecast American oil output will exceed nine million bpd, while Wood Mackenzie predicted a more conservative 8.75 million.

"Godzilla is even taller in person... US production will be bigger than most people are expecting," Vikas Dwivedi, senior analyst at Macquarie told the media.

Dollars

Iran will officially ditch the US dollar: Here's why it matters

US dollar graphic
Following President Donald Trump's ban on travelers from seven predominantly Muslim countries, the Iranian government announced it would stop using the U.S. dollar "as its currency of choice in its financial and foreign exchange reports," the local Financial Tribune reported.

Iran governor Valiollah Seif's central bank announced the decision in a television interview on January 29. The change will take effect on March 21, and it will impact all official financial and foreign exchange reports.

"Iran's difficulties [in dealing] with the dollar," Seif said, "were in place from the time of the primary sanctions and this trend is continuing," but when it comes to other currencies, he added, "we face no limitations."


Comment: Could this move away from the dollar be the real reason for increasing US rhetoric on Iran rather than the missile launch?


Bad Guys

US betrays deal with Iran as it inches closer to war with Russian ally

us iran flags
As the world remains mesmerized by the antics of US President Donald Trump, his national security adviser Michael Flynn brazenly linked Iran to Yemeni fighters who attacked a Saudi warship, as well as cited an Iranian missile test as grounds to reverse course on US rapprochement with Tehran, concluding that Iran was "put on notice."

Flynn would state:
In these and other similar activities, Iran continues to threaten US friends and allies in the region.
Flynn, who was head of the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) when a memo was published acknowledging the West, Turkey, and the Persian Gulf monarchs sought the rise of what was at the time called a "Salafist principality" in eastern Syria - precisely where the Islamic [Salafist] State [principality] now occupies, is surely aware that America's "friends and allies in the region" include state sponsors of terrorism, including the state sponsors of the Islamic State itself.

As Flynn furiously flipped through the pages of his statement, he was signifying the predictable betrayal of the so-called "Iran deal," meant before it was even introduced the public - as early as 2009 - to serve as a pretext not for peace, but for war with Iran.

Star of David

US Embassy in Tel Aviv has clarified Israelis born in Arab states excluded from Trump travel ban

Israeli passport
© photo credit: Flash90An Israeli passport
The US Embassy in Tel Aviv has clarified that President Donald Trump's travel ban will largely not affect the tens of thousands of Israeli Jews born in Middle Eastern countries.

A Tuesday statement said the controversial executive order would not be enforced against Israelis from those countries unless they possess a valid passport from one of the seven Arab countries banned under the directive.

"If you have a currently valid US visa in your Israeli passport and were born in Iraq, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, or Yemen, and do not have a valid passport from one of these countries, your visa was not cancelled and remains valid," the statement said.

Regarding those Israelis born in the seven countries who do have a valid passport from one of those countries, the embassy did not have definitive information, but seemed to indicate this would be handled on a case-by-case basis. "Authorization to enter the United States is always determined at the port of entry," it said in the statement.

Comment: See also:


Chess

GOP shifting strategy on Obamacare - From 'repeal' to 'repair'

obamacare
Some Republicans in Congress are starting to talk more about trying to "repair" Obamacare, rather than simply calling for "repeal and replace."

There's good reason for that.

The repair language was discussed by Republicans during their closed-door policy retreat in Philadelphia last week as a better way to brand their strategy. Some of that discussion flowed from views that Republicans may not be headed toward a total replacement, said one conservative House lawmaker who didn't want to be identified.

Using the word repair "captures exactly what the large majority of the American people want," said Frank Luntz, a prominent Republican consultant and pollster who addressed GOP lawmakers at their retreat.

"The public is particularly hostile about skyrocketing costs, and they demand immediate change," Luntz said in an e-mail response to questions. "Repair is a less partisan but no less action-oriented phrase that Americans overwhelmingly embrace."