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If anyone actually read the leaked "embassy" cable, however, they'd see that it's a stretch to report it as being a "smoking gun" purportedly confirming that the Crown Prince is the Zionist leader's puppet. The document in question doesn't contain any evidence within it that the Saudis' geopolitical bluster is due to any sort of coordination with "Israel", but rather reads like a straight-forward plan for opportunistically capitalizing on this "advantageous" event in order to advance the overlapping interests that Tel Aviv shares with Riyadh vis-à-vis Tehran, Sanaa, and Beirut.
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Just because two actors share the same interests doesn't necessarily mean that one of them is being controlled by the other, even if one makes a move that's to this pair's collective benefit in that given Neo-Realist context. Saudi Arabia's war-mongering statements against Iran, Yemen, and Lebanon perfectly align with "Israeli" interests, just like Trump's campaign promises to restore pragmatic relations with Moscow also served Russia's interests, though in neither case was the Crown Prince or the current President saying what they did for any other reason than to advance what they subjectively believed to be their country's national interests.
That said, there are indeed actors who stand to gain by purposely misportraying the Saudi-"Israeli" leaks in the previously described inaccurate manner, and it's here where another argument interestingly emerges to debunk the "collusion" narrative.
... it's understandable why the US would be opposed to the Crown Prince's "deep state" coup, even if Trump tweeted otherwise in order to save face after having earlier demanded that the Kingdom "drive out" all corrupt terrorist-supporting individuals such as the pro-American ones who Mohammed Bin Salman ironically just detained.
Nevertheless, the future King reportedly compelled "imprisoned" Prince Alwaleed to sell his shares in 21st Century Fox, thereby endangering anti-Trump tycoon Robert Murdoch's control over the media group, so Trump might indeed see something of a "silver lining" in what just happened.
In any case, the securing of Mohammed Bin Salman's Vision 2030-related reforms and multipolar Great Power partnerships is comparatively more to the US' grand strategic disadvantage than whatever benefits its President might reap from Murdoch's potential weakening, so it's plausible to assert that the US has a clear interest in undermining the Crown Prince.
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It's very likely that the document is authentic, but the point to focus on here is the reason behind its disclosure, which like all leaks in history had more than an inadvertent coincidental reason behind it. In this instance, the whole point is to discredit Mohammed Bin Salman in the eyes of his countrymen, thereby weakening his newly assertive grip on power and creating space for his citizens to have "second doubts" about what's really going on in the royal halls of power.
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The so-called "collusion" between Saudi Arabia and "Israel", as supposedly "proven" through the weaponized cable leak, is nothing more than the typical opportunism that Tel Aviv is known for, though that does not say that the two sides haven't collaborated in the past and won't do so again in the future, but just that it's inaccurate to report that the latest events are another example of this.
Saudi dissident leader discloses Riyadh supporting ISIL in Iraq through envoyMoon of Alabama has this recap of the latest events, with some analysis of the targeting of Lebanon:
A prominent Saudi dissident leader living in the UAE disclosed that Riyadh is supporting the ISIL terrorist group in Iraq with the help of its Ambassador to Baghdad Thamer al-Sabhan.
The Saudi plans are well coordinated with the United States and have the full support of the Israeli government. The point man in the Trump administration for all Middle East issues is Trump's son-in-law (and arch Zionist) Jared Kushner. ...See also:
A week ago the Saudi minister (and extremists) Thamer al-Sabhan called for toppling Hizbullah and promised "astonishing developments". Friday night the Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al Hariri was ordered back to his home-country Saudi Arabia and pressed to read a resignation statement on a Saudi TV station. None of his advisors in Lebanon knew that this was coming. It is claimed that Hariri did not voluntarily resign and is now under house arrest. There is even a Free Hariri Clock counting the hours, minutes and seconds of his ordeal. The Lebanese President has not accepted the PM's resignation and demands that Hariri returns to Lebanon. We called the resignation The Opening Shot Of The Saudi War On Hizbullah.
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It seems crazy that the Saudis would open another front in their chaotic war against presumed Iranian influences. Their forces were defeated in Iraq and Syria. Their wars on Yemen and Qatar are in a stalemate. Each of their moves has led to an increase of Iranian influence and power. It is hard to understand why they would want to repeat that experience in Lebanon. It is even harder to understand why the U.S. and Israel support that losing move.
The Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahoo activated his diplomats to lobby for the Saudi position:Barak Ravid @BarakRavid - 12:11 PM - 6 Nov 2017There is no common border between Lebanon and Saudi Arabia but there are many economic relations. The Saudis have for years sponsored Sunni clans in Lebanon. Many Gulf Arabs have invested in Beirut. It is their preferred vacation destination. Lebanese companies provide many services within the Gulf countries.
1 I published on channel 10 a cable sent to Israeli diplomats asking to lobby for SaudisHariri &against Hezbollah
2 The cable sent from the MFA in Jerusalem to all Israeli embassies toes the Saudi line regarding the Hariri resignation
3 The Israeli diplomats were instructed to Demarch their host governments over the domestic political situation in Lebanon. Very rare move
4 The cable said: "You need to stress that the Hariri resignation shows how dangerous Iran and Hezbollah are for Lebanon's security"
5 "Hariri's resignation proves wrong the argument that Hezbollah participation in the government stabilizes Lebanon", the Cable added
6 The cable instructed Israeli diplomat to support Saudi Arabia over its war with the Houthis in Yemen
7 The cable also stressed: "The missile launch by the Houthis towards Riyadh calls for applying more pressure on Iran & Hezbollah". END
There is little the Saudis can do militarily hurt Lebanon. They might want to move their Al-Qaeda and ISIS fighters from Syria to Lebanon but that will require Turkish cooperation. Even those forces would be no match for Hizbullah as it is deeply anchored within the population of Lebanon.
The Saudis will, like with Qatar, use economic means to squeeze Lebanon. It is quite obvious that such measures will mostly hurt their own constituency in Lebanon. How does that change the situation to their advantage? Analysts agree that the Saudi measures will in fact hurt. But they will also increase Hizbullah's, Iran's and Russia's influence.
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Another analyst, who long lived in Lebanon, has a slightly more positive view. (edited for readability):Elijah J. Magnier @ejmalrai - 7:50 PM - 6 Nov 2017
Saudi Arabia is preparing a war against Lebanon: hitting finance first, blocking air traffic exchange, inviting other Arab countries to follow. Saudi Arabia is bulling Lebanon and is expected to gradually escalate procedures: Lebanon will have to turn towards Syria for its economy/travel and towards Russia as the USA is turning a blind eye. Qatar and Iran will support Lebanon's economy: a new front and solidarity against Saudi Arabian bulling will be created. Saudi Arabia (wrongly) believes it can lead the Middle East: USA made the same mistake before and that brought Russia in. Saudi Arabia never had a clear foreign policy, is unaware of diplomacy and is adopting a tribal mentality: with me or against me. Because @realDonaldTrump has no clue what ME policy is and accepts anything Saudi Arabia is doing more instability is expected. Israel doesn't need to act against Hezbollah or #Lebanon, Saudi Arabia is doing the job on its behalf.
The question is: how long can Saudi Arabia hold internally and regionally? Even if not for long, ME is so unstable today ...
When Saudi Arabia says: "'Lebanon is hijacked by Hezbollah and Iran, Saudi will treat Lebanese gov as an enemy of its state" it means that KSA is at war. But Saudi Arabia is presenting Hezbollah as a kind of" superpower" and/or a "state" to stand against, magnifying it. The same style is usually used by Israel before taking action against #Hezbollah: Saudi Arabia is copying the rhetoric.
Bahrain, Emirates will have to join Saudi Arabia sooner or later to show KSA is not alone: expect fresh accusations. Arabs have wealth in Lebanon, proprieties and business, all may be soon affected by Saudi Arabia's belligerent attitude. Saudi Arabia seems to enjoy unlimited support: money is powerful, sure. But learn from Syria and the 6 years of war. Saudi Arabia wants to see a Lebanese government without any Hezbollah minister. Hezbollah's influence in #Lebanon doesn't emanate from the presence of a couple of ministers. Saudi Arabia wants for Hezbollah to pay the price of its effective role in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, in the defeat of ISIS. Saudi Arabia wants also to protect the tens of thousands Al Qaeda still in Idlib and it wants to deprive Iran from its arm. "Defeating" Hezbollah would leave Lebanon unprotected from Israel and pave the road to an Arab official relationship with Tel Aviv.
Even if PM Hariri leaves Saudi Arabia, to Beirut, his family remains behind and he can never go against Saudi will.
The return of Hariri to Lebanon won't solve the problem but will give more background to the events: no big deal.
As expected, Saudi Arabia has cast itself as the victim of external Shia plotting after its internal weekend of chaos which included a missile attack from Yemen, the deaths of two princes and other high officials within a mere 24 hours, and an aggressive crackdown against dissent in the royal family which saw close to a dozen princes placed under house arrest. And as Al Jazeera noted, in this Saudi version of 'Game of Thrones', the 32-year-old Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) shows that he is willing to throw the entire region into jeopardy to wear the royal gown.As it happens military analysis site South Front has done just such an analysis. It makes for sobering reading. The KSA may be gravely misjudging their potential adversary.
While Saudi Arabia has long blamed Iran for sowing unrest in the region, this evening's declaration by Saudi Gulf affairs minister Thamer al-Sabhan that Lebanon has "declared war" against the kingdom is truly an historic first. But perhaps the biggest problem is that international media is currently uncritically spreading the statement, whereas what such a bizarre claim actually warrants is laughter. Thankfully, Nassim Nicholas Taleb sums it up nicely with a basic geography lesson: "Either the media is stupid, or Saudi rulers are stupid, or both. Lebanon did not formally declare war and there is no common border."
With that in mind, here is the statement currently making headlines as reported by Reuters:Saudi Arabia said on Monday that Lebanon had declared war against it because of attacks against the Kingdom by the Lebanese Shi'ite group Hezbollah.Though clearly absurd (that Lebanon has declared war on KSA), the statement is driven by legitimate and deep-rooted fear, for not only has Hezbollah transformed itself into a Middle East powerhouse whose influence has grown vastly in the midst of the Syrian war, but it has transitioned into a quasi-state which has gained the respect of Lebanese and Arabs across the region. As we've noted many times before, it is fear of Hezbollah and its increasingly broad acceptance and legitimacy within Lebanese state institutions that also drives heightened Israeli rhetoric and bellicosity of late, which has once again "surprisingly" found itself on the same side as Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Gulf affairs minister Thamer al-Sabhan told Al-Arabiya TV that Saad al-Hariri, who announced his resignation as Lebanon's prime minister on Saturday, had been told that acts of "aggression" by Hezbollah "were considered acts of a declaration of war against Saudi Arabia by Lebanon and by the Lebanese Party of the Devil".
And at a moment that Israel has begun massive war games, and as MBS continues his purge toward total consolidation of power over the kingdom, both unlikely bedfellows continue their war of words against Hezbollah. It's no secret that common cause in Syria of late has led the historic bitter enemies down a pragmatic path of unspoken cooperation as both seem to have placed the break up of the so-called "Shia crescent"as their primary policy goal in the region. But that's perhaps why few pundits seemed overly shocked when Israeli media reported in early September that bin Salman may have made a secret visit to Israel, in spite of the fact that the kingdom does not recognize the Jewish state, and the two sides do not have diplomatic relations.
Will the current chaotic trajectory of things and unholy alliance between the Saudis and Israelis place Lebanon in the cross hairs of yet another Israeli-Hezbollah war? While we've recently addressed this question, this new and erratic Saudi declaration certainly puts the region a big step closer to such a war becoming a reality.
Though this question of the looming specter of an Israeli-Lebanese War (which would surely involve the Saudis aiding Israel politically inside Lebanon) has been addressed many times over of late, the real question, which isn't often analyzed, is the true military capabilities of Hezbollah. What has both Israel and the Saudis worried is the fact that the Syrian war has possibly strengthened Hezbollah, not weakened it.

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