OF THE
TIMES
Saudi dissident leader discloses Riyadh supporting ISIL in Iraq through envoyMoon of Alabama has this recap of the latest events, with some analysis of the targeting of Lebanon:
A prominent Saudi dissident leader living in the UAE disclosed that Riyadh is supporting the ISIL terrorist group in Iraq with the help of its Ambassador to Baghdad Thamer al-Sabhan.
The Saudi plans are well coordinated with the United States and have the full support of the Israeli government. The point man in the Trump administration for all Middle East issues is Trump's son-in-law (and arch Zionist) Jared Kushner. ...See also:
A week ago the Saudi minister (and extremists) Thamer al-Sabhan called for toppling Hizbullah and promised "astonishing developments". Friday night the Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al Hariri was ordered back to his home-country Saudi Arabia and pressed to read a resignation statement on a Saudi TV station. None of his advisors in Lebanon knew that this was coming. It is claimed that Hariri did not voluntarily resign and is now under house arrest. There is even a Free Hariri Clock counting the hours, minutes and seconds of his ordeal. The Lebanese President has not accepted the PM's resignation and demands that Hariri returns to Lebanon. We called the resignation The Opening Shot Of The Saudi War On Hizbullah.
...
It seems crazy that the Saudis would open another front in their chaotic war against presumed Iranian influences. Their forces were defeated in Iraq and Syria. Their wars on Yemen and Qatar are in a stalemate. Each of their moves has led to an increase of Iranian influence and power. It is hard to understand why they would want to repeat that experience in Lebanon. It is even harder to understand why the U.S. and Israel support that losing move.
The Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahoo activated his diplomats to lobby for the Saudi position:Barak Ravid @BarakRavid - 12:11 PM - 6 Nov 2017There is no common border between Lebanon and Saudi Arabia but there are many economic relations. The Saudis have for years sponsored Sunni clans in Lebanon. Many Gulf Arabs have invested in Beirut. It is their preferred vacation destination. Lebanese companies provide many services within the Gulf countries.
1 I published on channel 10 a cable sent to Israeli diplomats asking to lobby for SaudisHariri &against Hezbollah
2 The cable sent from the MFA in Jerusalem to all Israeli embassies toes the Saudi line regarding the Hariri resignation
3 The Israeli diplomats were instructed to Demarch their host governments over the domestic political situation in Lebanon. Very rare move
4 The cable said: "You need to stress that the Hariri resignation shows how dangerous Iran and Hezbollah are for Lebanon's security"
5 "Hariri's resignation proves wrong the argument that Hezbollah participation in the government stabilizes Lebanon", the Cable added
6 The cable instructed Israeli diplomat to support Saudi Arabia over its war with the Houthis in Yemen
7 The cable also stressed: "The missile launch by the Houthis towards Riyadh calls for applying more pressure on Iran & Hezbollah". END
There is little the Saudis can do militarily hurt Lebanon. They might want to move their Al-Qaeda and ISIS fighters from Syria to Lebanon but that will require Turkish cooperation. Even those forces would be no match for Hizbullah as it is deeply anchored within the population of Lebanon.
The Saudis will, like with Qatar, use economic means to squeeze Lebanon. It is quite obvious that such measures will mostly hurt their own constituency in Lebanon. How does that change the situation to their advantage? Analysts agree that the Saudi measures will in fact hurt. But they will also increase Hizbullah's, Iran's and Russia's influence.
...
Another analyst, who long lived in Lebanon, has a slightly more positive view. (edited for readability):Elijah J. Magnier @ejmalrai - 7:50 PM - 6 Nov 2017
Saudi Arabia is preparing a war against Lebanon: hitting finance first, blocking air traffic exchange, inviting other Arab countries to follow. Saudi Arabia is bulling Lebanon and is expected to gradually escalate procedures: Lebanon will have to turn towards Syria for its economy/travel and towards Russia as the USA is turning a blind eye. Qatar and Iran will support Lebanon's economy: a new front and solidarity against Saudi Arabian bulling will be created. Saudi Arabia (wrongly) believes it can lead the Middle East: USA made the same mistake before and that brought Russia in. Saudi Arabia never had a clear foreign policy, is unaware of diplomacy and is adopting a tribal mentality: with me or against me. Because @realDonaldTrump has no clue what ME policy is and accepts anything Saudi Arabia is doing more instability is expected. Israel doesn't need to act against Hezbollah or #Lebanon, Saudi Arabia is doing the job on its behalf.
The question is: how long can Saudi Arabia hold internally and regionally? Even if not for long, ME is so unstable today ...
When Saudi Arabia says: "'Lebanon is hijacked by Hezbollah and Iran, Saudi will treat Lebanese gov as an enemy of its state" it means that KSA is at war. But Saudi Arabia is presenting Hezbollah as a kind of" superpower" and/or a "state" to stand against, magnifying it. The same style is usually used by Israel before taking action against #Hezbollah: Saudi Arabia is copying the rhetoric.
Bahrain, Emirates will have to join Saudi Arabia sooner or later to show KSA is not alone: expect fresh accusations. Arabs have wealth in Lebanon, proprieties and business, all may be soon affected by Saudi Arabia's belligerent attitude. Saudi Arabia seems to enjoy unlimited support: money is powerful, sure. But learn from Syria and the 6 years of war. Saudi Arabia wants to see a Lebanese government without any Hezbollah minister. Hezbollah's influence in #Lebanon doesn't emanate from the presence of a couple of ministers. Saudi Arabia wants for Hezbollah to pay the price of its effective role in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, in the defeat of ISIS. Saudi Arabia wants also to protect the tens of thousands Al Qaeda still in Idlib and it wants to deprive Iran from its arm. "Defeating" Hezbollah would leave Lebanon unprotected from Israel and pave the road to an Arab official relationship with Tel Aviv.
Even if PM Hariri leaves Saudi Arabia, to Beirut, his family remains behind and he can never go against Saudi will.
The return of Hariri to Lebanon won't solve the problem but will give more background to the events: no big deal.
We will defeat the Houthis in a matter of weeks.
The headchoppers have lost their head.