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The report debunked the widely circulated estimate - from June 2018 - that IS had up to 17,000 fighters in Iraq and up to 14,000 in Syria, calling it questionable even at the time. The US-led coalition, known as the Combined Joint Task Force - Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTF-OIR) had "low confidence" in those estimates as of last July, the report said. As of January, CJTF-OIR estimated only 2,000 IS fighters remaining in the group's last remaining bastion - known at the Pentagon as the Middle Euphrates River Valley (MERV) and located in eastern Syria near the Iraqi border.
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Monday's report, on the other hand, matches the reasoning of US intelligence chiefs last week that IS will rise again in the absence of US troops - although only in the limited area near its current holdout, rather than Syria and Iraq as a whole.
"You've got these divergent narratives," security analyst Charles Shoebridge told RT. "Trump is speaking from the hip, if you like, he is speaking off the cuff, and it might be what he's saying is actually a little bit closer to the truth of where the American strategy actually lies."
The US 'deep state' is firmly against withdrawal from Syria, Shoebridge noted.
One of the things the report revealed is that the US-backed militia was presumably on the brink of crushing the last IS holdout in the Euphrates Valley, but had to halt their operation when Turkey threatened to intervene against the Kurdish fighters.
The Kurdish YPG militia makes up more than two thirds of the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which the US have used as the main proxy against IS in northeastern Syria. With the YPG busy against the Turks, the Arab component of the SDF was "unable to conduct" offensive operations, and actually lost ground to IS in late October and November, when bad weather prevented coalition airplanes from flying.
It was only in mid-November, when the YPG was back in the fight, that the SDF was able to roll back IS gains, the report said, describing the YPG "paramount to stability and efforts to defeat ISIS."
The report was also skeptical of Turkey's offer to take over the battle against IS, noting that with the exception of the 2016 Al-Bab operation, "Turkey has not participated in ground operations against ISIS in Syria since 2017, nor have Turkish forces participated in the fight against ISIS in the MERV, which is approximately 230 miles away from al Bab and the Turkish border."

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