
© ISNA/Handout / Reuters
The attacks taking place in the Gulf and its waters against
harbours, energy
supply pipelines and oil
tankers have assumed the proportions of a small scale war; however
a wider war will happen only if Iran or the USA make future mistakes or incite new frictions. A suspicious move or misinterpretation of events could lead to a broader Middle Eastern war, especially since both armies and their allies are on full alert.
The military effectiveness of both sides and their allies - spread to all corners of the Middle Eastern - are substantial and should not be underestimated.It is not the habit of the US to look for just, substantial and robust pretexts for war once the decision to go to war has been taken. Recent events - the sabotage acts at al-Fujairah (the Emirates), the attack on Aramco pipeline, the attacks on two tankers in the Gulf of Oman, and the US Central Command
video purporting to show Iranian boat personnel removing an unexploded Limpet mine from Kokuka Courageous -
have already given the US ample pretexts for war, if the US were looking for war. If this were the case, President Donald Trump would have already ordered his military to
conduct precision missile strikes similar to the attack he ordered against
Syria or at least a punitive
airstrike together with his close European partners. Or perhaps even prepared his army to go to
war as George W. Bush did with Iraq in 2003.
The reason Trump has refrained from launching any order for attack is that
he is aware that a military operation against Iran will be anything but a walk in the park. The consequences of such an attack are unpredictable and its outcome will certainly not be to his obvious advantage.
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