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Trump has 91% chance to win in November says professor whose model is almost NEVER wrong

Trump
© AP/Carlos OsorioUS President Donald Trump
You've seen the polls: President Trump is going to get crushed in November. But wait: Isn't that what the polls said in 2016, when nearly every single pollster and mainstream media outlet predicting Hillary Clinton would win in a landslide?

Yes, yes it is.

So let's turn to Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth and his "Primary Model," which Fox News reports "has correctly predicted five out of the past six elections since 1996 and every single election but two in the past 108 years." Norpoth told Fox:
"The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November. This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced."
"The exceptions include John F. Kennedy's election in 1960 and George W. Bush's election in 2000, when Bush won a majority of the electoral college despite losing the popular vote," Mediaite reported.

Not only will Trump win, Norpoth's model suggests, the president will expand his margin in the Electoral College from 304 electoral votes in 2016 to 362 in 2020. That would be nearly identical to the 365 electoral votes former President Barack Obama won in 2008.

Comment: Trump is fair game in predictably unfair circumstances, if Democrats remains true to form. What we CAN count on is 'nothing is as it seems' and 'nothing is a sure bet'. We are entering strange times with stranger consequences.


X

Trump administration rescinds foreign students rule

Harvard Yard
© Maddie Meyer/Getty ImagesHarvard Yard, Cambridge, Massachusetts
The Trump administration on Tuesday rescinded a policy that would have stripped visas from international students whose courses move exclusively online amid the coronavirus pandemic.

The move comes after the policy announcement last week sparked a flurry of litigation, beginning with a suit brought by Harvard University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), followed by California's public colleges and later a coalition of 17 states, among other challenges.

Judge Allison Burroughs, a federal district judge in Boston who was expected to preside over oral arguments in the Harvard-MIT case, made the surprise announcement at the beginning of the court proceedings Tuesday.

"I have been informed by the parties that they have come to a resolution," Burroughs said, adding, "They will return to the status quo."

The latest development cancels a move U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) announced last week that international students whose courses move entirely online would be required to depart the country or transfer schools and reinstates an earlier plan to grant exemptions to student visa holders.

Comment: In allowing a future of empty campuses by forcing studies online, higher education has taken a giant step backward. What was the real intent of rescinding foreign student visas? Was it a leverage to get universities and colleges to return to 'live classes' or fulfill the demands of Homeland Security. As it stands, it seems to be neither.




Footprints

US troops withdraw from five bases in Afghanistan as part of Taliban deal

Soldiers in trucks
© AFP 2020/Olivier DoulieryBagram Airfield, Afghanistan
Since the United States first began its occupation of Afghanistan in 2001, remaining troops have had to aid the Kabul government in its fight against the Taliban regime. Washington is now prioritizing an agreement with the Islamist group in an effort to end ongoing violence.

The US has closed down five military bases in Afghanistan as part of a deal with the Taliban agreed to more than four months ago, a White House representative revealed on Tuesday. The agreement committed to the removal of US forces from bases within the first 135 days, said US President Donald Trump's special representative to the talks, Zalmay Khalilzad.

As well as a reduction in forces and the departure from 5 bases, NATO troops would also be reduced in "proportional numbers", Khalilzad tweeted

According to Afghan media outlet Tolo, the five now-closed military institutions are located in the south and east of the country, in the Helmand, Uruzgan, Paktika and Laghman provinces. The significantly larger US bases in Bagram, outside of the capital - Kabul, and Kandahar Air Field - remain operational.

Stop

President Trump: We convinced UK to ban Huawei

TrumpHancock
© Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images/BBC.comUS President Donald Trump • Matt Hancock
President Trump said he's behind an international push to ban Chinese tech company Huawei. During a speech at the White House Tuesday, he said he was "responsible" for the recent ban against the telecom giant in the U.K.

Officials from the British Digital and Culture Ministry announced they were prohibiting companies from purchasing new equipment from Huawei. The ban cited the country's uncertainty regarding their ability to "guarantee the security of future Huawei equipment." Trump stated:
"We confronted untrustworthy Chinese technology and telecom providers. We convinced many countries...and I did this myself for the most part...not to use Huawei because we think it's an unsafe security risk, it's a big security risk."

Comment: While UK health secretary Hancock chided Trump and brushed off White House claims, he negated Washington as the source and touted UK experts instead:
Hancock insisted that the government relied only on "technical advice" from its own experts: "All sorts of people can try to claim credit for the decision, but this was based on a technical assessment by the National Cyber Security Centre about how we could have the highest-quality 5G systems in the future."

On Tuesday, Digital Secretary Oliver Dowden unveiled a plan to ban British mobile operators from buying Huawei 5G equipment after December 31. The companies must also get rid of all of their existing Huawei 5G kits by 2027. Dowden argued that close ties with the Chinese telecoms giant expose Britain to security risks.

Philip Jansen, the CEO of telecoms company BT, warned that a rushed decision to cut ties with Huawei and remove its gear could potentially hurt millions of British mobile customers and even result in "outages."

The Trump administration blacklisted Huawei last year, citing the threat of Beijing using Huawei for surveillance and espionage. Trump and other senior US officials have repeatedly pressured their allies in Europe, including the UK and Germany, to take action against Huawei.

Both Huawei and China have denied all allegations of using the company's capabilities for spying. A spokesperson for Huawei blasted the ban, arguing that purging its gear out of UK's 5G network will only slow down the nation's digital development and increase bills for British consumers.
See also: The 5G Trojan Horse and what you're not being told!


X

Analysis: Older, conservative rural voters tipped Poland's presidential election to the incumbent Duda

Duda
© Grazyna Marks/Agencja Gazeta via REUTERSPoland's President Andrzej Duda speaks during his election meeting in Solec Kujawski, Poland, June 9, 2020.
President Andrzej Duda was re-elected Sunday in the tightest election in modern Polish history, with 51% of the vote to 49% for Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski.

Why it matters: The populist ruling party, Law and Justice, is now expected to press ahead with steps that critics say are eroding the independence of the courts and media, and have brought Poland into conflict with the EU.

Comment: Duda is pursuing a "Poland First" policy. No wonder he did well amongst those who remember both communism and life before the EU.


Wolf

The real Bill Browder story (part one): What US/UK media won't tell you about billionaire lobbyist's dubious narrative

William Browder
© RT.comWilliam Browder, fabulist
If anyone has proven the adage that "a lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is still putting on it shoes," it's Bill Browder. The mega-rich vulture capitalist has been spinning a yarn for years.

Intriguingly, after Germany's leading news magazine kiboshed his fake narrative, Anglo-American media ignored the revelations.

Browder's narrative suits the US/UK establishment as it provides a convenient excuse to sanction Russia, but the story has more holes than Swiss cheese.

The billionaire vulture capitalist has been a figure of some prominence on the world scene for the past decade. A few months back, Der Spiegel published a major exposé on him and the case of Sergei Magnitsky, but the US/UK mainstream media failed to follow it up and so, aside from Germany, few people are aware of Browder's background.

Comment:


Snow Globe

Federal Reserve's $3 trillion virus rescue inflates market bubbles

financial bubble
The Federal Reserve's $3 trillion bid to stave off an economic crisis in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak is fuelling excesses across U.S. capital markets.

The U.S. central bank has pledged unlimited financial asset purchases to sustain market liquidity, increasing its balance sheet from $4.2 trillion in February to $7 trillion today.

While the vast majority of these purchases have been limited to U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, the Fed's pledge to bolster the corporate bond market has been enough to spur a frenzy among investors for bonds and stocks.

"COVID-19 is now inversely related to the markets. The worse that COVID-19 gets, the better the markets do because the Fed will bring in stimulus. That is what has been driving markets," said Andrew Brenner, head of international fixed income at NatAlliance.

Here are some of the market bubbles that investors are attributing to the Federal Reserve's intervention.

Comment: See also:


Briefcase

Posturing: Dutch PM files claim against Russia in EU human rights court over MH17 despite decision to delay all Ukraine-Russia cases

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte cartoon
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte (lead image) surprised his own country's lawyers last week with the filing of a Dutch Government claim against Russia at the European Court of Human Rights for the shooting-down of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17. "The Dutch government decided", declared the official announcement, "to bring Russia before the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) for its role in the downing of Flight MH17."

"By submitting an inter-State application," Rutte's statement explained, "the government is sharing all available and relevant information about the downing of Flight MH17 with the ECtHR. The contents of the inter-State application will also be incorporated into The Netherlands' intervention in the individual applications submitted by the victims' next of kin against Russia to the ECHR. By taking this course of action the government is offering maximum support to these individual cases."

In fact, according to international lawyers, the Dutch move contributes nothing to the individual cases now pending from MH17 victims' families because the court has suspended all of them since December 2018.

Comment: Peak hypocrisy: Netherlands govt. to take RUSSIA to European Court of Human Rights over 'role' in MH17 crash


Bizarro Earth

Armenia claims it shot down Azerbaijani drone as fierce border clashes continue into third day

Armenia
© REUTERS/Pascal LauenerFILE PHOTO: An Armenian soldier near the border with Azerbaijan, in Armenia. 2015. AFP / Karen Minasyan; inset Elbit Hermes 900 unmanned aerial vehicle
The Armenian military has claimed it downed an advanced Azerbaijani drone amid ongoing border clashes. The flare-up has already led to casualties on both sides, with the South Caucasus neighbors blaming each other for the spat.

"Armenian air defense units hit a drone of the Azerbaijani armed forces, which is used as a fire control system," Armenia's Defense Ministry spokeswoman Shushan Stepanyan said on Tuesday, sharing footage of the incident on Facebook.

The drone is said to be an Israeli-made Elbit Hermes 900, a medium-sized multirole UAV. Azerbaijan is believed to have as many as 15 such machines in its inventory.

Comment: See also: Azerbaijan-Armenia border clashes, casualties reported


USA

Trump signed law slapping sanctions on China for interference in Hong Kong

hong kong protests trump picture
President Donald Trump said Tuesday that he signed legislation to impose sanctions on China in response to its interference with Hong Kong's autonomy.

Trump also said that he signed an executive order ending the preferential treatment that Hong Kong has long enjoyed.

"Hong Kong will now be treated the same as mainland China," Trump said during a lengthy speech in the White House Rose Garden that quickly drifted away from that legislation to touch on a variety of campaign issues.

Comment: China is apparently none-too-impressed by Trump's order. From the Guardian:
China promises 'firm response' to Trump's order ending Hong Kong's special status
Helen Davidson - Wed 15 Jul 2020 09.35 BST

China has vowed to retaliate after Donald Trump ordered an end to Hong Kong's special status under US law to punish China for what he called "aggressive actions" against the former British colony.

Citing China's decision to enact a new national security law for Hong Kong, the US president said he signed an executive order that will end the preferential economic treatment Hong Kong has received for years. "No special privileges, no special economic treatment and no export of sensitive technologies", he told a news conference.

In a strongly worded response, China's ministry of foreign affairs said no country has the right to interfere in what it deemed "purely China's internal affairs".

"US efforts to thwart the implementation of Hong Kong's national security will never succeed. In order to defend its own legitimate interests, China will respond as necessary and impose sanctions on the relevant American individuals and entities.

"We urge the US to correct its mistakes. If the US stubbornly pursues this path, China will give a firm response."

Acting on a Tuesday deadline, Trump also signed a bill approved by the US Congress to penalise banks doing business with Chinese officials who implement the new security law.

"Today I signed legislation, and an executive order to hold China accountable for its aggressive actions against the people of Hong Kong," Trump said. "Hong Kong will now be treated the same as mainland China."

The White House later released the full text of the executive order, outlining the penalties and suspensions, as well as newly reallocated admissions within the US refugee ceiling "to residents of Hong Kong based on humanitarian concerns".

The order suspended multiple sections of legislation governing US immigration, arms exports and defence production, and eliminated US preference for Hong Kong passport holders as compared to People's Republic of China passport holders.

It also suspended extradition and prisoner transfer agreements, took steps to end US training of Hong Kong police and security officers, and suspended or terminated academic partnerships with Hong Kong including the Fulbright exchange program.

The order allows for the freezing of US-based property and interests of foreign persons linked to the new national security laws, or found to be involved in international human rights abuses, or in the limiting or penalising of independent media and freedom of expression.

Critics of the security law fear it will crush the wide-ranging freedoms promised to Hong Kong when it returned to Chinese rule in 1997.

The security law punishes what Beijing broadly defines as subversion, secession, terrorism and collusion with foreign forces with up to life in prison.

US relations with China have already been strained over the global coronavirus pandemic, China's military buildup in the South China Sea, its treatment of Uighur Muslims and massive trade surpluses.

North Korea's leadership spoke out in support of China on Wednesday. "It is an extremely sinister act that a non-Asian country across the ocean, not being content with its reckless remarks over the issue of the South China Sea, has hurled abuses at the [Chinese Communist Party]," a foreign ministry spokesperson said.

Ending Hong Kong's special economic status could be a double-edged sword for the United States. Hong Kong was the source of the largest bilateral US goods trade surplus last year, at $26.1bn, based on US Census Bureau data. It is also a major destination for US legal and accounting business. More than 1,300 US firms have offices there.

The former British colony was returned to Chinese rule in 1997 with a law protecting freedoms of speech, assembly and the press until 2047 under "one country-two systems".

The legislation Trump signed calls for sanctions on Chinese officials and others who help violate Hong Kong's autonomy, and financial institutions that do business with those found to have participated in any crackdown on the city.

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