
© REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst
Hysterics at the Chinese balloon overflying the U.S. - taken to volume 11 - through scrambling a hush-hush Raptor jet (F-22) to 'pop' it, and then bally-hooing the 'pop' as Raptor's first ever 'air-to-air kill', may be a source for quiet derision around the world, yet paradoxically this seemingly trivial event may cast a long shadow over the U.S. war-timetable for Ukraine.
For it is the U.S. political calendar that may yet determine what happens next in Ukraine - from the western side.
Seemingly nothing important occurred - it was an instant of spy frenzy, leaving Biden's 'tough task' unchanged:
He needs to convince the American voter, facing collapsing standards of living, that they misread the 'runes'; that rather than gloom, the economy - contrary to their lived experience - is 'working well for them'.Biden needs to perform this magic against
polls that say only 16% of Americans feel better off since the start of his tenure, and 75% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters
wish him to
not stand in 2024. Significantly, this message is coming today from the Democratic-leaning media, suggesting thoughts of replacing him are already in circulation.
For now, Biden's allies in the party establishment (the DNC) continue to clear the way for his candidature - postponing initial primaries (in which Biden could be expected to be trounced) for a later South Carolina primary election, where Black and Latino voters would reflect demographics in which Biden might (possibly) shine. It may work; it may not.
Simply put, against this highly sceptical Party backdrop, Biden will have to change American perceptions of the economy at a moment when many
indicators signal further deterioration. It will be a 'heavy lift'. The economic team, for sure, will be insisting: 'Keep the focus on economic achievements! We don't want distractions from any foreign policy débacles; We do not want the TV debates to centre on Balloons, or around Abrams tanks: 'It's the economy, stupid!''.
The 'Chinese balloon' was popped, yes, but similarly popped was Team Biden's hope to negotiate a limited understanding with a tetchy President Xi that could stop China tensions becoming a spoiler issue in the primary debates. The balloon incident obliged the U.S. to cancel Blinken's appointment with Xi (even though such a meeting with the head of state would be a rare event).
The powerful 'China hawk' faction in the U.S. was ecstatic. The China balloon 'kill' inadvertently, and in an instant, elevated China to 'Main Threat'.
It was the chance for these hawks to 'pivot' foreign policy back from Ukraine and Russia - to fully focus on China.
Comment: More reporting on the various incidents. Of course, being the MSM they are heavily laced with pro-US and anti-China comments, but still some interesting nuggets there. The Pentagon seems a bit rattled: