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Stock Up

How Russia managed to survive Western sanctions

sanctions
© Nuthawut Somsuk/iStock
The Russian economy has managed to hold up against the massive sanctions imposed by Western countries and their allies over Moscow's military operation in Ukraine, White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby admitted on Friday.

As the conflict enters its second year, Washington revealed more anti-Russia penalties, targeting dozens of companies and individuals linked to the country, and raising tariffs on Russian goods whose imports were still allowed. Meanwhile, the EU approved its tenth package of sanctions against Russia, which includes export limitations on dual-use items and technology, measures against so-called Russian disinformation, and new restrictions against individuals and entities for their alleged support of the Russian military. Western allies Britain, Switzerland, Australia, Japan and New Zealand joined the measures.

According to Kirby:
"Russia's economy is showing some resilience, however it's not clear whether this can be sustained for the long haul. Putin has had to take some drastic measures to prop up his economy, to prop up his currency, including playing pretty aggressively with interest rates, for instance."
Russian statistics service Rosstat reported that GDP of the sanctions-hit nation contracted by just 2.1% in 2022, much less than the 10-15% some had predicted after sanctions hit last March. The Russian economy is actually forecast to increase by 0.3% during the current year, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Comment: It is evident that sanctions affect the world economy as much or more than its target. By disrupting the chain of supply, replacement costs increase as do prices for the consumer. Russia's prep for this turn of events mitigated financial catastrophe for itself and other countries.


Fire

US hands lit torch to Israeli arsonists

Neti/Smotrich
© Ronen Zvulun/Pool/SIPAChief Arsonist Benjamin Netanyahu and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich
The US is paving the way for horrific violence against Palestinians by allowing Israel to go into settler-colony and apartheid overdrive.

By doing so, Washington may also be hastening the end of the total impunity that allows Israel to episodically "mow" down Palestinians who challenge its colonial domination. Events of recent days will make it more difficult for Washington and its allies to treat the situation of extreme injustice in Palestine as something that can be managed indefinitely.

That conflict management approach - by which the colonized Palestinians are treated as an equal partner to their oppressor while being required to do the occupier's dirty work - prevailed during the quarter-century that followed the signing of the Oslo accords by Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization in the mid-1990s.

It was during that period, of course, that Israel grabbed West Bank hilltops and accelerated the building of its settlement colonies in violation of international law, further fragmenting Palestinian land and society.

US State Department spokesperson Ned Price typified that approach during a press conference following Israel's bloody daytime raid in the West Bank city of Nablus on Wednesday.

Comment: If the US defies Israel, should we expect another 9/11? Palestine is not its only victim.



Cardboard Box

What will happen when the banks go bust? Bank runs, bail-ins and systemic risk

Movie still
1946 classic: It's a Wonderful Life
Financial podcasts have been featuring ominous headlines lately along the lines of "Your Bank Can Legally Seize Your Money" and "Banks Can STEAL Your Money?! Here's How!" The reference is to "bail-ins:" the provision under the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act allowing Systemically Important Financial Institutions (SIFIs, basically the biggest banks) to bail in or expropriate their creditors' money in the event of insolvency. The problem is that depositors are classed as "creditors." So how big is the risk to your deposit account? Part I of this two part article will review the bail-in issue. Part II will look at the derivatives risk that could trigger the next global financial crisis.

From Bailouts to Bail-Ins

The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010 states in its preamble that it will "protect the American taxpayer by ending bailouts." But it does this under Title II by imposing the losses of insolvent financial companies on their common and preferred stockholders, debtholders, and other unsecured creditors, through an "orderly resolution" plan known as a "bail-in."

The point of an orderly resolution under the Act is not to make depositors and other creditors whole. It is to prevent a systemwide disorderly resolution of the sort that followed the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in 2008. Under the old liquidation rules, an insolvent bank was actually "liquidated" — its assets were sold off to repay depositors and creditors.

X

Russia no longer at mercy of global elite - Lavrov

Lavrov
© RIA News/Russian Foreign MinistryRussian FM Sergey Lavrov
Western political leaders will no longer have the power to dictate terms to Russia, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Monday. Speaking with the heads of the ministry's regional offices, the diplomat stressed that Russia will now determine its own needs for development.
"Until recently, a couple of years ago, the external conditions that we needed for development were determined not by us, but by the Western minority. Therefore, we will no longer rely on someone when it comes to creating the external conditions for the development that we need."
He added that all the foreign policy initiatives promoted by the so-called "golden billion" group serve the sole purpose of making sure that the world lives by rules that allow Western elites to continue their colonial policies and live at the expense of others.

Lavrov also pledged that Russia will not follow in the footsteps of the "selfish" West, and will take into account the interests of other independent states.

Stop

Defense minister explains conditions for Russian advances in Ukraine

Shoigu
© Vadim Savitsky/SputnikSergey Shoigu
Russia's defense minister has outlined the conditions for a widening of Moscow's military operation in Ukraine, explaining that potential advances are directly tied to Western arms deliveries to Kiev.

"It depends on the weaponry that will be supplied," Sergey Shoigu said in a brief remark to the TV program 'Moscow. Kremlin. Putin.'

The minister appeared to be speaking on the sidelines of President Vladimir Putin's address to the Federal Assembly, the country's main legislative body, earlier this week. Putin said during the event:
"One thing must be clear to everyone. The longer the range of the Western systems that arrive in Ukraine, the further we will be forced to push the threat away from our borders. It's obvious."

Jet4

Chinese military put on 'high alert'

Strait of Taiwan
© Gallo Images / Orbital Horizon / Copernicus SentinelThe Strait of Taiwan, located between the coast of southeast China and Taiwan.
A US warplane's recent flight through the Taiwan Strait is a threat to the stability of the region, a Chinese army spokesman stated, as cited by China Daily on Monday.

The P-8A Poseidon anti-submarine patrol and reconnaissance aircraft flew through the strait separating mainland China and the self-governed island of Taiwan on Monday. A Chinese Su-27 took off and monitored the American spy plane along its path. Senior Colonel Shi Yi, a spokesman for the PLA (People's Liberation Army) Eastern Theater Command, said this maneuver "deliberately damaged the regional situation and jeopardized peace and stability" in the region. He added that the Chinese military was "on high alert to resolutely safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity."

The US forces in the region acknowledged the maneuver. "The United States will continue to fly, sail, and operate anywhere international law allows including within the Taiwan Strait," the 7th Fleet Command said in a statement.

Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense confirmed that they knew of the P-8A's flight in a short official statement on the same day, calling the situation "normal."

Magnify

Lab leak most likely origin of COVID-19 virus, says U.S. But what do we really know?

Chinese virology lab
The lab leak is back in the news as a U.S. intelligence agency alters its assessment to state that the coronavirus likely originated from a laboratory leak.

The Department of Energy Office of Intelligence and Counterintelligence is considered authoritative by many as it is involved in biological threats, overseeing a network of 17 laboratories encompassing research in advanced biology, as well as in managing the safety of the U.S. nuclear stockpile.

The Wall Street Journal reports that the agency's new assessment was made with "low confidence", according to people who have read the classified report.

The FBI is the only other U.S. intelligence agency to conclude that the lab leak is the most likely scenario. A report from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence declassified in October 2021 stated that "one IC [Intelligence Community] element assesses with moderate confidence that COVID-19 most likely resulted from a laboratory associated incident involving WIV or other researchers — either through exposure to the virus during experiments or through sampling". This element was subsequently identified by the New York Times as the FBI.

U.S. officials on Monday declined to give details on the fresh intelligence and analysis that led the Energy Department to change its position. They added that while the Energy Department and the FBI each says an unintended lab leak is most likely, they arrived at those conclusions for different reasons.

Four other agencies in the U.S. still believe that the pandemic was a result of natural zoonotic spillover and two others are undecided, according to the Wall Street Journal. One of the agencies that remains undecided is understood to be the CIA.

Asked about the latest report on CNN on Sunday, Jake Sullivan, National Security Adviser, acknowledged that a variety of views are held by the U.S. intelligence community on the origins of the pandemic.
Some elements of the intelligence community have reached conclusions on one side, some on the other, and a number have said they just don't have enough information to be sure... Right now there is not a definitive answer to emerge from the intelligence community.
Gilles Demaneuf of DRASTIC spotted back in December that a footnote to the report by the House Intelligence Committee on the Intelligence Community's response to the COVID-19 outbreak noted that at least one intelligence agency had revised its assessment since the above-mentioned 'Biden report' that was declassified in October 2021.

Comment: When the U.S. actively seeks to obfuscate the origin of some thing or incident which ends up having a significant affect on the world one can be reasonably confident that it was in some way behind it.

See also:


MIB

Evidence emerging that the US is planning to interfere in the 2023 parliamentary elections in Ukraine

zelensky speech ukraine rada
© UNIAN / Andriy KrymskyiPresident of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a meeting of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, in Kyiv, October 20, 2020
In October 2023, Ukraine will hold elections for the Verkhovna Rada, the unicameral parliament of Ukraine. In the previous elections Vladimir Zelensky's party "Servant of the People" received 43.16% of the vote. Since then the popularity of the party and Zelensky himself has been gradually declining, but in 2022 it rose again.

However, the U.S. has already begun active preparations for these elections. In particular, the U.S. has allocated[1] more than 1 million dollars to the NGO Civil Network Opora through the United States Agency of International Development (USAID).

USAID was established in 1961 on the initiative of John F. Kennedy. The official purpose of the agency is "to support the development of democracy, economy and health, as well as conflict prevention in more than one hundred countries around the world." Headquartered in Washington, D.C., USAID's administrator and his/her deputy are appointed by the President with the consent of the Senate and act in coordination with the U.S. Secretary of State.

Alarm Clock

Zelensky warns Americans that US will lose global influence if it stops backing war

zelensky
Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has warned Americans to keep supporting Kiev or risk geopolitical irrelevance, during a press conference on the anniversary of Russia's military operation in the country. Should it stop funding the war effort, the US will "lose the leadership position that they are enjoying in the world," the Ukrainian leader declared on Friday.

"If they do not change their opinion...they will lose NATO, they will lose the clout of the United States, they will lose the leadership position they are enjoying in the world," Zelensky declared, following a speech in which he declared 2023 the "Year of Invincibility" and vowed to unite the world against Russia.

The warning was a response to a reporter asking what Zelensky would tell the "growing number of Americans" who believe their country is giving too much money and support to Ukraine. The president made sure to thank his American supporters - a group he hinted included not just Congress and President Joe Biden but also "the TV channels" and "the journalists" - before threatening those who held the "dangerous" opinion that the US should "give up" on Kiev.

Mr. Potato

US presidential hopeful calls for end to Ukraine aid, claims China wants to prolong the war to weaken US

Vivek Ramaswamy
Washington should focus on countering China and tackling the Taiwan issue instead, Vivek Ramaswamy believes
The US is being "played" by Beijing in the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with China allegedly seeking to prolong the hostilities for as long as possible, Vivek Ramaswamy believes. The entrepreneur officially announced his candidacy for the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries earlier this week.

He made the remarks in a series of tweets on Friday, likening the Ukraine conflict to the Vietnam War and urging Washington to "focus" on China instead. Ramaswamy alleged that the ongoing hostilities were being used by China to thin out Washington's military capabilities ahead of a looming conflict over Taiwan.

Comment: Also check out SOTT radio's: NewsReal: Enter The Dragon: China Sides With Russia Against America