Today we continue our discussion of historical cycles by looking at cliodynamics, a field of study pioneered by Turchin. Turchin's work gives scientific support to the idea that cycles are an essential feature of civilization. Empires rise and fall. Periods of stagnation and crisis end in war, revolution, and collapse. These trends, and the factors that determine them, can be measured and modeled. And all the indicators show that the U.S. has indeed entered a time of crisis, along with Europe - on par with the conditions that led to the American Civil War.
Today on MindMatters we discuss the outlines of Turchin's work, how it applies to American history, and what it might mean for the future.
Running Time: 01:20:48
Download: MP3 — 64.2 MB
Harrison Koehli co-hosts SOTT Radio Network's MindMatters, and is an editor for Red Pill Press. He has been interviewed on several North American radio shows about his writings on the study of ponerology. In addition to music and books, Harrison enjoys tobacco and bacon (often at the same time) and dislikes cell phones, vegetables, and fascists (commies too).
Born and raised in New York City, Elan has been an editor for SOTT.net since 2014 and is a co-host for MindMatters. He enjoys seeing and sharing what's true about our profoundly and rapidly changing world.
Adam joined the editorial team in 2014 and is a co-host of MindMatters. His particular interests include philosophy, history, exercise science, and technology. He particularly dislikes Critical Race Theory and people who're so afraid of death that they prevent others from living. He also knows kung fu.
Reader Comments
The graph shows the growth from the industrial revolution, leading to our capitalism based model which cannot deal with overproduction without regular purging, usually in the form of war
It would seem that most production is frivolous, hence the massive advertising sector desperate to persuade us to consume all that production. It's not working and they are left scratching their heads as to what to do
Result: The privileges of the '1%' are preserved, as they happily proceed to gain ownership of every valuable asset on the planet.
But worry not! You will own nothing and you'll be happy!
Just as 'elites' have always lied to have their way: 'CDC Director Changes Her Story, Now Admits COVID Vaccines Don’t Prevent Virus Transmission'"We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors...and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do". - Donald Rumsfeld.
The aide said that guys like me were ‘in what we call the reality-based community’, which he defined as people who ‘believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality’. I nodded and murmured something about enlightenment principles and empiricism. He cut me off. ‘That’s not the way the world really works anymore,’ he continued. ‘We’re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you’re studying that reality – judiciously, as you will – we’ll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that’s how things will sort out. We’re history’s actors ... and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do.
’What Rove was describing is perhaps the most damaging long-term effect of the most recent Bush administration on American democracy: the deliberate and manipulative delinking of the action of the sovereign from the shared sense of a “discernible reality”. [Link]
The overproduction of ruling class servitors is a sign of repression since the ruling class is feeling paranoid (since you never give your victim’s real empowerment) and has become brutally selective.
The only debts in America that you cannot use bankruptcy to remove is student loans. The American ruling class has made debt slaves of all the professionals who they don’t select. The American “Emperor” has foreseen this problem and has used student debt to enslave them.
The Empire controls the “stores” which sell professional certification and uses student debt as a means of controlling that entire segment of society.
The ruling class also has direct control over the boards which oversee the professional elite like lawyers, doctors, and assassin pharmacists. These boards are the hidden backbone of tyranny.
Most of the ruling class did not sign up for the mass murders of Americans. The actual causes for Alzheimer’s and diabetes would impact the ruling class so they keep letting people die to protect their power.
Dr. Fauci is the moral norm for the National Institutes of Health and the National Science Foundation. He is just another cockroach no different from the thousands of other cockroaches in the NIH and NSF. He was caught in the middle of the kitchen floor when Covid-19 turned on the lights.
Death or joining the revolution is a simple choice that should fracture the American ruling class.
It raises the question if what is well-being for any of us, and is it connected to physical, emotional, intellectual or spiritual well-being? Is there a higher purpose of man on earth? How does collective and individual identity play a role?
Gurdjieff's law of 3 and the law of (7) octaves is one way to analyze. The law of 3 says that it is the third force as the determiner of the outcome. The catalyst in an enzymatic reaction is an example. For the success of a store like Nordstroms, the third force is customer service. If we look at CRT and its opponents, what is the third force?
The law of octaves mirrors the musical octave. It proceeds in intervals but at 2 points it is retarded. In Gurdjieff's system, the direction of development changes at these points. For development to proceed in a chosen direction then the interval needs to be bridged.
What does this mean? It means if you or a society begins with certain ideals or values, that over time they become their opposite WHILE USING THE SAME PHRASES. In our current time freedom and democracy are phrases that have become their opposite. For democracy you must oppose election voter ID.
Inequality has existed at all times. Individually Epictetus develops as a slave. Frankl discovers meaning in a concentration camp. Kennedy and Martin Luther King inspire a nation through values of freedom and humanity.
Misread the headline as "...everyone suffers as the elite get a mega-bonus"
I must by suffering from "They Live Syndrome"
an asteroid worth more than $10,000 quadrillion – which is said to contain so much precious metal that everyone on Earth would be a billionaire if its precious cargo was divided among mankind
This episode, we look back at the age of the Aztecs. Learn how this society grew from nothing to create one of the world's largest cities in the middle of a lake. Discover Aztec riddles, poetry and songs, as well as the bloody ritual of the flower wars. And hear the remarkable story of how this thriving empire collapsed all at once, in a matter of days.
from one of the comments .... The way you explain in detail all the context, including the geology/climate, the connection in time with other events around the world, the correlation with today's society..
"The Great Motor [that] renews the centuries."
UNPRECENDENTED Comet C/2017 K2. (Comet-k2.com)






i do however think you are correct in assuming that it is futile to try to apply math/statistics on anything as short as a few cycles. (a few 100s or 1000s repetitions... would have been better).
nevertheless, the cycles apparently going on in history is certainly interesting. if you guys can make something scientific out of it, i will be the first to apploude