Does history really repeat? If so, how, and why? We discussed the "fourth turning" on a previous episode of MindMatters. According to Strauss and Howe, the United States has entered a time of crisis which could see societal collapse, revolution, or war. However, their theory has its problems. While suggestive on the descriptive level, it has not been scientifically supported. Enter Peter Turchin.
Today we continue our discussion of historical cycles by looking at cliodynamics, a field of study pioneered by Turchin. Turchin's work gives scientific support to the idea that cycles are an essential feature of civilization. Empires rise and fall. Periods of stagnation and crisis end in war, revolution, and collapse. These trends, and the factors that determine them, can be measured and modeled. And all the indicators show that the U.S. has indeed entered a time of crisis, along with Europe - on par with the conditions that led to the American Civil War.
Today on MindMatters we discuss the outlines of
Turchin's work, how it applies to American history, and what it might mean for the future.
Running Time: 01:20:48
Download: MP3 — 64.2 MB
Harrison Koehli
Harrison Koehli co-hosts SOTT Radio Network's MindMatters, and is an editor for Red Pill Press. He has been interviewed on several North American radio shows about his writings on the study of ponerology. In addition to music and books, Harrison enjoys tobacco and bacon (often at the same time) and dislikes cell phones, vegetables, and fascists (commies too).
Elan Martin
Born and raised in New York City, Elan has been an editor for SOTT.net since 2014 and is a co-host for MindMatters. He enjoys seeing and sharing what's true about our profoundly and rapidly changing world.
Adam Daniels
Adam joined the editorial team in 2014 and is a co-host of MindMatters. His particular interests include philosophy, history, exercise science, and technology. He particularly dislikes Critical Race Theory and people who're so afraid of death that they prevent others from living. He also knows kung fu.
i do however think you are correct in assuming that it is futile to try to apply math/statistics on anything as short as a few cycles. (a few 100s or 1000s repetitions... would have been better).
nevertheless, the cycles apparently going on in history is certainly interesting. if you guys can make something scientific out of it, i will be the first to apploude