Storms
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Cloud Precipitation

Hurricane Irma chugs west

hurricane
Still churning hundreds of miles east of the Caribbean, Hurricane Irma is on a track that could bring it near the Leeward Islands by Wednesday and into the Eastern Bahamas by Friday. Hurricane watches were issued Sunday afternoon by the governments of Antigua, France, and the Netherlands on Sunday afternoon for the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, Saba, St. Eustatius, Sint Maarten/St. Martin, and Saint Barthelemy. With any luck, Irma's center and its more dangerous right-hand side will stay just north of the Leewards, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. However, Irma is expected to be a powerhouse Category 4 hurricane by that point, so high winds, huge surf, and torrential rains could occur well away from its center. It appears increasingly likely that Irma's wrath will be focused on parts of The Bahamas late next week, and a major hurricane landfall along the U.S. East Coast is a distinct possibility by Sunday or Monday.

Irma's behavior has been remarkably steady over the last couple of days. At least one eyewall replacement cycle has occurred, a process that can lead to short-term weakening followed by a restrengthening a day or two later as the new eyewall takes over. Since Friday, Irma's top sustained winds have oscillated within the 110-120 mph range, crossing the boundary between Category 2 and 3 strength several times. As of 5:00 pm EDT, Irma's estimated top winds were 115 mph. The first Hurricane Hunter flight into Irma, which was in progress Sunday evening, found a dropsonde-measured surface pressure of 961 millibars and a remotely-estimated pressure of 958 mb, both of which are considerably lower than the 5 pm NHC estimate of 969 mb. Surface winds of 113 mph were estimated in the northeast eyewall.

Irma has healthy upper-level outflow in all directions (see Figure 1), which is one important measure of a hurricane's potential for growth. Irma is also getting larger-a trend that may continue all week-with tropical-storm-force winds now extending out up to 140 miles on its north side.

Comment: There are hurricane watches in place for Puerto Rico and Floridians are being warned to prepare:
The storm is expected to strengthen over the next 48 hours as it churns west toward Puerto Rico, where a hurricane watch is in effect.

More hurricane and tropical storm watches may be issued today.

Dennis Feltgen of the National Hurricane Center in Miami said it was still too early to determine the impact on Florida.

"But people should use this time wisely to check their supplies and review their hurricane plan," he said.

The National Meteorological Service said Puerto Rico could get prolonged high winds and as many as 8 inches of rain if the storm smacks the island Wednesday, as expected.

No hurricane warnings or watches have been issued in the continental U.S., but storm experts are monitoring Irma.

Florida Gov. Rick Scott urged state residents to prepare themselves for the possibility of Irma's wrath.



Cloud Precipitation

Damage reported in central North Carolina following severe weather with baseball-size hail

Storm damage
© Akilah Davis‏Storm damage
Severe weather rolled through central North Carolina on Friday afternoon, causing damage to cars and buildings, and knocking down trees.

However, the National Weather Service said the storm was a microburst and not a tornado.

Microbursts are localized columns of sinking air within a thunderstorm; experts said they can cause extensive damage and in some instances, can be life-threatening.

The National Weather Service will be in the Triangle area taking a look at the damage left behind from the storms.

Fuquay-Varina and Willow Spring were particularly hard-hit, as was Angier, where large hail and wind gusts resulted in significant damage.

On Sunray Court in Fuquay-Varina, it was anything but sunshine. Kacy Daniels and her daughter Kyra said it was terrifying.


Tornado1

Powerful Hurricane Irma could be next weather disaster - UPDATE

Tropical storm Irma
© NASAA handout photo made available by NASA shows an image acquired by the joint NASA/NOAA Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) satellite of then Tropical Storm Irma in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean, on 30 August 2017
While much of the United States' focus is still on Texas and the destruction left behind by Hurricane Harvey and its historic rainfall, powerful Hurricane Irma is rapidly intensifying in the open Atlantic and poses a major threat to the Caribbean and potentially the United States next week. Irma was named as a tropical storm on Wednesday morning and by Thursday afternoon it had strengthened into a large Category 3 hurricane, with winds of 115 mph.

Such explosive strengthening is known as "rapid intensification," defined by the National Hurricane Center as having its wind speed increase at least 30 knots (35 mph) in 24 hours. "Irma has become an impressive hurricane," the National Hurricane Center said on Thursday, noting the rapid intensification, and saying "this is a remarkable 50 knot [58 mph] increase from yesterday at this time."

Hurricane Harvey underwent rapid intensification last week, just before landfall, which brought it from a tropical storm to a Category 4 hurricane when it moved onshore near Corpus Christi.Irma is a classic "Cape Verde hurricane," a type of hurricane that forms in the far eastern Atlantic, near the Cape Verde Islands (now known as the Cabo Verde Islands) and tracks all the way across the Atlantic.

Comment: Images of Irma's possible path:
hurricane irma
© WEATHERBELLComputer model "spaghetti" plot showing track projections for Hurricane Irma


hurricane irma
© nhc.noaa.gov
Update (Sept. 2)

Irma's path is still uncertain - normal for hurricanes while they're still traversing the Atlantic towards the coast. On average, there's a 194-mile margin of error in five-day forecasts. As usual, predictions are only as good as the models and initial conditions used to produce them. And no model is perfect. For example, here are the predicted tracks from Sept. 1st (NOAA):
irma hoaa tracks
And another set from Sept. 2:
irma tracks
The National Hurricane Center predicts Irma will be "extremely dangerous" for the next few days, but it's too early to say whether it will make landfall.

Update (Sept. 3)

The Weather Channel reports that Irma has strengthened into a Category 3 hurricane. Additional strengthening is expected as Irma moves westward in the week ahead. Irma will move close to the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico by the middle of this week, and then near or north of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos and Bahamas late week into next weekend.

Hurricane Irma Sept 3
© Weather ChannelProjected Path and Intensity
It remains far too soon to speculate on eventual potential U.S. impact, but East Coast residents should monitor closely. Meanwhile the NWS has warned about fake hurricane forecasts.

One such fake forecast has been shared on social media almost 40,000 times. The official NOAA emblem was cut and pasted to make it look genuine. It depicts Irma's predicted path to impact the U.S.

Fake Hurricane Irma forecast
© WPIX 11, New YorkFake Hurricane Irma forecast.



Attention

Houston declares flash flood emergency, unprecedented 1.2m rainfall - UPDATES

Car tilt water
© Ernest Scheyder / ReutersA vehicle sits half submerged in flood waters in residential area of Houston, Texas, in the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey.
A flash flood emergency has been declared in the Houston area of Texas by the National Weather Service after water reached the second floors of houses south of the city. The heavy rains were brought about by hurricane Harvey, now downgraded to a tropical storm.

Reports of water reaching the second storeys of houses and apartment complexes came not only from southern Houston, but also from Dickinson in nearby Galveston County.

Some rivers in the Houston area were at around eight to ten feet (2.4-3 meters) over their banks, WBTV reported. Over a thousand people have been rescued from the affected area since early Saturday.

"I know for a fact this is the worst flood Houston has ever experienced," Patrick Blood, National Weather Service meteorologist, told the Houston Chronicle. Blood warned that the "catastrophic flooding in the Houston metropolitan area is expected to worsen."

The National Weather Service has warned that rainfall from Hurricane Harvey could reach 50 inches (1.27 meters) in some places, which would be the highest-ever level registered in Texas.


Comment: More than 1,000 people have been rescued in Houston as of 5pm Sunday (27 August), the city's mayor, Sylvester Turner, announced, as quoted by AP. The official said that nearly 6,000 calls had been received by local police and fire department units, adding that many people were trapped in their attics or on their roofs.

Over 22 aircraft were working to help identify people stranded on roofs, he said. Over 90 dump trucks and 35 boats are also used by the city in rescue operations.

In Dallas, officials have announced they would open an additional "mega shelter" to evacuees on Tuesday morning. The city's convention center will be able to serve 5,000 people fleeing from the hurricane-affected southern part of the state.

Update (Aug. 28)

So far, Harvey has dumped more than 15 trillion gallons of water on Texas, breaking all-time records - with potentially 6 trillion gallons more to come. The resulting floods have been catastrophic.
There may be no parallel available to any other rainstorm in U.S. history, based on the number of people affected, amount of water involved, and other factors, meteorologists have warned.

Due to its wide geographic scope across America's 4th-largest city, the ensuing flood disaster may rank as one of the most, if not the most, expensive natural disaster in U.S. history.
Just check out these before-and-after pics:




The flooding of the bayou reached catastrophic levels last night, reaching 7.28 ft above flood stage. While the flooding continues, NASA satellites show Harvey moving back into the Gulf.

The National Weather Service had to add another color to their rain maps in order to account for the level of rainfall.


Update (Aug. 29)

At 49.3 inches of rain in southeast Houston, Harvey has set a cyclone rainfall record. And for the first time in its history, one of the Houston area's two reservoirs is overflowing.
The reservoirs, which flank Interstate 10 on the west side of Houston, flow into the Buffalo Bayou and are surrounded by parks and residential areas. Water levels in the two reservoirs had already reached record levels Monday evening, measuring 105 feet at Addicks and 99 feet at Barker.

Engineers were unable to measure water levels at the Barker Reservoir on Tuesday because its gauge was flooded overnight, said Jeff Lindner, the Harris County flood control meteorologist.

The overflow did not represent a "failure" of the dam, stressed Richard K. Long, a natural resource management specialist with the Army Corps of Engineers.

"These are not your typical dams; these are unique because of the type of terrain we have," Long said, referring to Houston's relatively flat plain. The Addicks and Barker reservoirs each have a main spillway and two auxiliary spillways. Water hadn't breached either of those spillways, but instead was overflowing through a slightly lower point on the north end of the Addicks Reservoir.
More rain is on the way:
  • Texas Gov. Greg Abbott activated his state's entire National Guard, deploying 12,000 servicemen to respond to the hurricane.
  • The Harris County Sheriff's Office used motorboats, airboats, and other vehicles to rescue more than 2,000 people in the greater Houston area on Sunday, a spokesman said.
  • The National Weather Service has issued flood watches and warnings from near San Antonio to New Orleans, an area home to more than 13 million people.
Estimates are that some 30,000 Houston residents will be left temporarily homeless. Houston airport will probably be closed until Thursday. Experts say there's an additional risk: waterborne illnesses:
"Any time you have water, particularly water that is standing, you can have any number of bacteria or viruses," said Jonathan Yoder, deputy chief of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) waterborne disease prevention branch. "As a general rule, people should anticipate that that water is likely to be, at some level, contaminated."

What it might be contaminated with ranges from unpleasant but relatively harmless gastrointestinal hazards, such as norovirus, to rarer, more serious bacteria - including Vibrio, a potentially deadly micro-organism naturally found along the Gulf Coast.
See also: 'This is a nightmare event': Levee breached south of Houston in 800 year flood event

Update (Aug. 31)

As Harvey's storms move on from Texas to Louisiana, the record flooding has left at least 35 people dead, 17 missing, and 10s of thousands temporarily homeless. 32,000 people are in shelters. Despite weakening to tropical-depression status, the flooding will continue for the rest of the week.
Map of Harvey's path
© Tribune News Service 2017Map of Harvey's path
The Texas National Guard has made 8500+ rescues and 26,000 evacuations so far, and they're seeking an additional 10,000 NG members from other states to supplement their own 14,000.

Then there's this heartening bit of news: despite the aggressive rhetoric and sanctions against them, Venezuela has offered $5 million to Harvey's U.S. victims. Venezuelan Foreign Minister Jorge Arreaza:
"There will be direct aid from Citgo, a contribution of up to 5 million dollars, to support the affected families affected in Houston and Corpus Christi in collaboration and coordination with their mayors and local authorities, of course. In second place, we are planning on allocating a percentage of sales of our production of Citgo gasoline towards the construction and substitution of housing and shelters."
"We put at their disposal everything the Bolivarian revolution can contribute at the moment of supplies, from brigade members, rescue workers, community doctors who were trained with the spirit of addressing this kind of catastrophe, Petrocasas (mass housing), and everything that the affected area could need right now. We repeat: this is an expression of Venezuela's solidarity, beyond any political difference, that we must express today in the face of the effects of a devastating natural phenomenon."
More recent coverage of Harvey-related news: One of the most touching and heartbreaking rescue stories in the past couple days was the saving of a 3-year-old girl found clutching her mother's drowned body:
Beaumont police identified the mother as Colette Sulcer, 41, and said her daughter was being treated for hypothermia but doing well. When rescuers found the mother and daughter, the girl was on her mother's back, holding on, said Police Officer Haley Morrow.

"I envision what I would do if that was me in that situation and that's what I would do: I would put my child on my back and try to swim to safety or whatever," Morrow said.

Sulcer's vehicle got stuck Tuesday afternoon in the flooded parking lot of an office park just off Interstate 10, said Capt. Brad Penisson of the fire-rescue department in Beaumont. Squalls from Harvey were pounding Beaumont with up to 2 inches (5 centimeters) of rain an hour with 38 mph (60 kph) gusts, according to the National Weather Service.

A witness saw the woman take her daughter and try to walk to safety when the swift current of a flooded drainage canal next to the parking lot swept them both away, Penisson said.

Morrow said the woman's actions probably saved her little girl's life. "When they found her she was still up out of the water," Morrow said.
...
The child was taken to the Christus St. Elizabeth Hospital in Beaumont, and was expected to be released Wednesday. Officer Carol Riley said the girl was doing "very well" and was chatty.

"Everybody at the hospital and the officers just fell in love with her," Riley said.
Update (Sept. 1)

A couple images that capture the devastation brought by Harvey:
houston harvey highway
© TWITTER/SCREENGRAB
houston harvey
© AFP/Getty Images
First Baptist Church of Rockport harvey
© AFP/Getty ImagesFirst Baptist Church of Rockport
The death toll is now 42, and around 100,000 homes have been affected. Meteorologist Jeff Linder estimates that 70% of the 1800-sq-mile county was covered with at least 1.5 feet of water. Groups of volunteers are helping families tear up soaked carpet, knock out damaged drywall, and hauling out furniture and other personal possessions. Some houses were flooded with up to 4 feet of water; other homes flooded to the roof. WSJ tells one story representative of many others:
At the Norchester neighborhood in northwest Houston on Thursday, Beth Smith's driveway was piled with ruined couches and end tables and carpeting soaked by the 4 feet of water that poured into her two-story home, the first time the 40-year-old house has flooded.

As she walked through the area where she has lived all her life, she pointed out homes where neighbors had been rescued. She wrinkled her nose at the musty, chemical smell that grew stronger near the standing water.

"You can smell oil, gasoline, anything you put in your garage," she said.

A former consultant for a scrapbook company, the mother of two wiped away tears as she talked about returning home through knee-deep water to find most of their possessions waterlogged, including her daughters' baby scrapbooks.

"I had to carry them out," she said. "I was crying, taking them out."
Officials have embarked on house-to-house searches for dead and injured. LA Times has some harrowing accounts from residents and rescuers:
One resident who had taken refuge on a roof, Roshanda Harris, said she saw five bodies float away, including those of three children.

Derrick Vance, 29, said he saw half a dozen people die. He descended from the roof at one point to help families next door. But he couldn't reach Williams and others stranded across the complex. The parking lot between them had become a roaring river.
...
Shaky cellphone video posted online(warning: the audio content is disturbing) showed figures clinging to a tree in the parking lot as brown water rushed around them, ripping one woman's clothes off and threatening to tear her away as the other figure clung to her underwear.

"Pull her up! She underwater!" shouted a woman filming from across the complex. "Pull her head up!" yelled a girl. A man can be heard on his phone nearby calling 911. "Tell them she going underwater and she can't breathe," the woman said. "We need someone out here now, we've got people drowning," the man told an operator.

Suddenly, the woman filming screamed. "She's gone - they let her go," she said. Noting others had already drowned, she added, "That's not the first person."
Update (Sept. 2)

With Houston facing up to 2 more weeks until the flooding dies down, that's only one of the dangers. With 156,000 homes flooded, that means mold, electrical hazards, deadly fumes and toxins as the water recedes. Trump has proposed $7.85 billion in federal disaster relief, and plans to visit Houston again, and Louisiana, on Saturday.

Some parts of Texas are actually expecting MORE flooding from overflowing rivers, including Lake Jackson, an hour south of Houston, where overflowing reservoirs may flood another 15 to 20 thousand homes.

One man came home to find a 9-foot alligator in his living room:






Cloud Precipitation

Worst monsoons in recent history kill 1,200 and displace over 40 million in India, Nepal & Bangladesh (PHOTOS & VIDEOS)

floods in India
© Punit Paranjpe / AFPIndians wade through a flooded street during heavy rain showers in Mumbai on August 29, 2017
India, Nepal and Bangladesh are battling some of the worst monsoon rains in recent history, which have left around 1,200 people dead and 41 million people affected. In India more than 32 million people have reportedly been impacted by downpours.

Vast areas of land across all three countries are underwater, according to the Red Cross. "Rainwater from the Himalayas is travelling down through Nepal's lower-lying areas, through swollen rivers in north-east India and eventually through the floodplains of Bangladesh," it said in a statement.

Comment: (Update - Sept. 2): The death toll is now at least 1,400 across India, Nepal and Bangladesh.
Hundreds of towns and villages have been submerged by the devastating floods which have now persisted for over two months, affecting an estimated 40 million people.

Tens of thousands of people have taken refuge in relief camps that are short of food and vulnerable to disease.
...
The devastating flooding has sparked anger across the affected areas but authorities have tried to distance themselves from culpability by highlighting the scale of this year's deluge.

"If you get a whole year's rain in one to two days, how will you handle it? No preparation and planning will work," said Anirudh Kumar, of the disaster management department in the Indian state of Bihar.
bihar india flood
© Cathal McNaughton / ReutersA woman wades through a flooded village in the eastern state of Bihar, India August 22, 2017.



Cloud Precipitation

Flash flood hits Karachi, Pakistan killing 16, at least 11 electrocuted

FLOOD
Flash monsoon flooding in Karachi, Pakistan's largest city, has claimed the lives of at least 16 people, most of them children, officials confirmed Friday.

At least 11 deaths have been attributed to electrocution, as rising waters become electrified in low-lying urban areas, according to the Edhi Foundation, the city's main emergency aid agency.

Karachi is the latest major South Asian city to be hit by heavy monsoon rains amid a widening flood-related crisis engulfing much of the region. More than 1,200 have died and upwards of 41 million people have been affected in neighboring India, Nepal and Bangladesh, according to estimates provided by the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC).

Figures released by the city's Meteorological Department show Karachi normally receives an average of 19.9mm of rain in September. On Wednesday, northern parts of the city received 97mm, equivalent to five times that amount.


Cloud Lightning

Woman killed by lightning in Saint-Trojan-les-Bains, France

Image for illustration only
© Will FisherImage for illustration only
51-year-old was on a beach on the Ile d'Oléron when she was struck

A holidaymaker has died after being struck by lightning while on a beach on the Ile d'Oléron.

Emergency services said the 51-year-old, from the Dordogne, was on the beach at Saint-Trojan-les-Bains with her husband when she was hit at about 8.30am on Friday.

Although local storms were forecast in the area, it was raining, but not stormy, at the time, 20minutes.fr reports.

Her husband raised the alarm, and gave first aid until the emergency services arrived - but the woman was declared dead at the scene.

Cloud Lightning

Lightning strikes kill 7, critically injure 6 others, 11 cattle fatalities also reported in Odisha, India

Lightning
Lightning strikes killed as many as seven and left six others critical in different parts of Odisha on Friday.

People were struck dead in the Sohela area of Bargarh district, Basudevpur area of Bhadrak district, Soro area of Balasore district, Kolabira area of Jharsuguda, Bhandari Pokhari of Bhadrak, Bisra of Rourkela and Mahakalpada in Kendrapara district.

Similarly, as many as 11 cows died in lightning strike in Kundapatna village of Jajpur district.

Notably, on Thursday night also, one person died of lightning strike in Brahmagiri, Puri. The deceased has been identified as Brahmar Baral, who had gone to the village pond nearby when the wind was strong. While returning, he was struck by lightning.

Comment: A day earlier in the same Indian state, a lightning bolt killed a couple and injured 3 others.


Cloud Precipitation

The Netherlands receives 2 weeks worth of rain in 24 hours

RAIN HOLLAND
Wednesday was a wet and rainy day for the Netherlands. According to Weeronline, between 40 and 45 millimeters of rain fell in the west of Zuid-Holland, the north of Noord-Holland and on the Wadden islands. That's about half of what is usual for the entire month of August.

By Wednesday night Leeuwarden had the most rain, with 52.2 millimeters measured. Places like Grouw and Stavoren also got over 50 millimeters of rain. "Locally the total rainfall can climb up to 60 mm by [Thursday] morning", the weather agency said on Wednesday night.

According to Het Parool, the heavy rainfall caused problems across the country. Places in Gelderland, Limburg and Noord-Brabant had to deal with flooded streets. And the rain also left lanes on the A10 near Sloterdijk underwater, causing a very busy evening rush hour in Amsterdam.

Cloud Lightning

Lightning bolt kills 3 in Khagrachhari, Bangladesh

Lightning
Three people including a father and his daughter were killed as lightning struck them at Milonkarbaripara area under Tobolchhari union of Matiranga upazila of Khagrachhari on Wednesday evening, reports news agency UNB.

The deceased were identified as Nandamohan Tripura, 35, his daughter Lalita Tripura and Kallyan Chandra Tripura, cousin of Lalita.

Shaifur Rahman, on-duty doctor of Panchhari Upazila Health Complex said a thunderbolt struck them while it was raining and they were in and around their home around 6:45pm, leaving them critically injured.

Later locals rescued them and rushed them to the upazila health complex where doctor declared them death.

Lalita was a student of class seven of Tobolchhari Kadamtali T K High School and Kallyan was an intermediate second year student of Tobolchhari Greenhill College.

Comment: Another 3 people were recently killed by lighting strikes in the Indian state of Madhya Pradesh on August 30th.