Wily Sultan is caught between his electorate, which favors a Syria invasion, and his extremely nuanced relations with Russia.
There's another Special Military Operation on the market. No, it's not Russia "denazifying" and "demilitarizing" Ukraine - and, therefore, it's no wonder that this other operation is not ruffling feathers across the collective West.
Operation Claw-Sword was launched by Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as
revenge - highly emotional and concerted - for Kurdish terrorist attacks against Turkish citizens. Some of the missiles that Ankara launched in this aerial campaign carried the names of Turkish victims.
The official Ankara spin is that the Turkish Armed Forces fully achieved their "air operation objectives" in the north of Syria and in Iraqi Kurdistan, and made those responsible for the terror attack against civilians in Istanbul's Istiklal pedestrian street pay in "multitudes."
And this is supposed to be just the first stage.
For the third time in 2022, Sultan Erdogan is also promising a ground invasion of Kurdish-held territories in Syria.
However, according to diplomatic sources, that's not going to happen - even as scores of Turkish experts are adamant that the invasion is needed sooner rather than later.
The wily Sultan is caught between his electorate, which favors an invasion, and his extremely nuanced relations with Russia - which encompass a large geopolitical and geo-economic arc.
He well knows that Moscow can apply all manner of pressure levers to dissuade him. For instance, Russia at the last minute annulled the weekly dispatch of a joint Russo-Turkish patrol in Ain al Arab that was taking place on Mondays.
Ain al Arab is a highly strategic territory: the missing link, east of the Euphrates, capable of offering continuity between Idlib and Ras al Ayn, occupied by dodgy Turkish-aligned gangs near the Turkish border.
Erdogan knows he can't jeopardize his positioning as potential EU-Russia mediator while obtaining maximum profit from bypassing the anti-Russian embargo-sanctions combo.
The Sultan, juggling multiple serious dossiers, is deeply convinced that he's got what it takes to bring Russia and NATO to the negotiating table and, ultimately, end the war in Ukraine.In parallel, he thinks he may stay on top of Turkey-Israel relations; a rapprochement with Damascus; the sensitive internal situation in Iran; Turkey-Azerbaijan relations; the non-stop metamorphoses across the Mediterranean; and the drive towards Eurasia integration.
He's hedging all his bets between NATO and Eurasia.
Comment: One last chance to influence her legacy?