September 2020 was the least deadly month in Swedish history, in terms of number of deaths per 100,000 population. Ever. And I don't mean the least deadly September,
I mean the least deadly month. Ever. To me, this is pretty clear evidence of two things.
First, that covid is not a very deadly disease. And second, that Sweden has herd immunity.
When I posted this information on my twitter feed, the response from proponents of further lockdown was that the reason September was such an un-deadly month, was because everyone has already died earlier in the pandemic. To me, that seems like a pretty self-defeating argument. Why?
Because 6,000 people have died of covid in Sweden, a country with a population of 10,000,000 people.
6,000 people is 0,06% of the population. If it is enough for that tiny a fraction of a population to die of a pandemic for the pandemic to peter out so completely that a country can have its least deadly month ever,
then the pandemic was never that deadly to begin with.In August,
I wrote an article where I proposed that the mortality for covid is only 0,12%, roughly the same as influenza. That number was based on a back-of-the-envelope calculation. I figured that, since the death rate had dropped continuously for months and was at very low levels, Sweden must have reached a point where it had herd immunity. And I figured that at least 50% of the population must have been infected for herd immunity to have been reached. 50% of Sweden's population is five million people. 6,000 / 5,000,000 = 0,12%
At the beginning of October, one of the World Health Organisation's executive directors, Mike Ryan,
said that the WHO estimated that 750 million people had so far been infected with covid. At that point, one million people had died of the disease.
That gives a death rate for covid of 0,13% . So the WHO said that the death rate is 0,13% . Not too far off my earlier back-of-envelope estimation.
This of course begs the question why there are continued lockdowns for a disease that is no worse than the flu.
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