Part I: The Stratosphere
- First Warming
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It now appears that the stratosphere will kick off a number of indices that deem February to be the coldest prolonged period of winter thus far. In today's post, I will address multiple indices that favor a significantly colder than normal February.
Part I: The Stratosphere
- First Warming
In the opening days of January, we saw a stratospheric warming event occur. This event was minor, as the chart above (depicting temperature anomalies in the upper latitudes) shows. Nevertheless, this first warming event, coupled with the ongoing warming event is helping to destabilize the polar vortex in the stratosphere. So far this winter, the stratospheric polar vortex has been resistant to any and all attempts to be put down. We can attribute this to the positive phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), which is unfavorable for a weak polar vortex. These two first warmings are just tastes of what is to come. While the first warming was minor, it seems to have shaken up the vortex at least a bit, and this ongoing warming event right now is most likely helping with some slight (at the very least) destabilization of the polar vortex.
Part I: The Stratosphere
- First Warming
The volcano experienced an earthquake swarm during 14-15 January, IGP reported in its latest bulletin. An increase of approx. 25% in seismic activity overall with respect to last year's average was calculated, but IGP stresses that this activity is still low and does not suggest new activity in a near future.
According to the report, a total of 418 seismic events were recorded during the first half of January, most of them during the swarm that occurred on 14-15 Jan when almost 120 quakes were registered within 17 hours. From these events, 144 were so called long-period quakes (internal fluid movements), 269 volcano-tectonic earthquakes (internal rock fracturing) and 5 short pulses of tremor (internal vibration).
El Misti, which is only 17 km from the center of Arequipa city, is one of the countries major and most active volcanoes. Due to its closeness to a large city and its history of explosive eruptions, it is also one of the most dangerous volcanoes in South America, and clearly one that deserves being closely monitored.
According to the report, a total of 418 seismic events were recorded during the first half of January, most of them during the swarm that occurred on 14-15 Jan when almost 120 quakes were registered within 17 hours. From these events, 144 were so called long-period quakes (internal fluid movements), 269 volcano-tectonic earthquakes (internal rock fracturing) and 5 short pulses of tremor (internal vibration).
The report of IGP showing the signals of the seismic swarm at EL Misti volcano in Peru
"The earthquake, which occurred at about 18 kilometres away from the volcano towards Shamakhi caused eruption of the Shyhzerli volcano. An earthquake occurred two or three days before the eruption," the scientist said.
The earthquake and the eruption did not occur on the same day, but sometimes such cases happen, Aliyev said.
"For example, 15 minutes after the Shamakhi earthquake that destroyed the city in 1902, there was a strong eruption of the Shyhzerli volcano. Such strong earthquakes result in the volcano erupting the same day. Volcanos may also erupt a day or two days after, when the seismic wave reaches it. We have found out that the volcano itself should be ready to erupt, there should be enough energy. The earthquake simply contributes to its eruption," the scientist said.
© Mari Darr-Welch/AP High tides lash a Destin, Florida, pavilion—usually on dry land—ahead of tropical storm Claudette on August 17, 2009.
Usually, predicting seasonal tides and sea levels is a pretty cut-and-dried process, governed by the known movements and gravitational influences of astronomical bodies like the moon, said Rich Edwing, deputy director for the Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
But NOAA's phones began ringing this summer when East Coast residents reported higher than predicted water levels, much like those associated with short-term weather events like tropical storms. But these high seas persisted for weeks, throughout June and July.
The startling rise caused only minor coastal flooding - but major head scratching among scientists.
Virtual sunlight: The LED screen shows the rising sun in Tiananmen Square which is shrouded with heavy smog on January 16, 2014 in Beijing, China. Beijing Municipal Government issued a yellow smog alert this morning
The futuristic screens installed in the Chinese capital usually advertize tourist destinations, but as the season's first wave of extremely dangerous smog hit - residents donned air masks and left their homes to watch the only place where the sun would hail over the horizon that morning.
Commuters across Beijing found themselves cloaked in a thick, gray haze on Thursday as air pollution monitors issued a severe air warning and ordered the elderly and school children to stay indoors until the quality improved.
The air took on an acrid odor, and many of the city's commuters wore industrial strength face masks as they hurried to work.
'I couldn't see the tall buildings across the street this morning,' said a traffic coordinator at a busy Beijing intersection who gave only his surname, Zhang. 'The smog has gotten worse in the last two to three years. I often cough, and my nose is always irritated. But what can you do? I drink more water to help my body discharge the toxins.'
Mike Peters, Hank Martinez, and Ed Magaletta call to Mark Mihal in the sinkhole
- 43-year-old mortgage banker Mark Mihal was playing golf with three friends
- He was at the 14th hole of the Annbriar golf course in Waterloo, Illinois
- Noticing a depression in the ground, he walked over and ground gave way
- He became trapped in the 12-foot sinkhole and had to be rescued
- Mr Mihal suffered a broken shoulder and torn tendons after the fall
Mark Mihal, 43, and his partner Mike Peters, were easily beating regular opponents Ed Magaletta and Hank Martinez during a game in early March last year.
Mr Mihal and Mr Peters had both outdriven the other pair on the 14th hole of the Annbriar golf course in Waterloo, Illinois.
Each landed the ball nicely on the fairway, leaving Mr Magaletta and Mr Martinez at the edge of the woods trying to clear a bunker.
But while Mr Mihal was waiting for Mr Peters to hit his second shot, he noticed a shallow, bathtub-size depression in the grass of the fairway.
It was out of place on the well-kept course, and looked as if it would be tricky to play out of.
He walked over and stepped into the depression - and promptly vanished.
© USGS National Wildlife Health Center
Somewhere in the back of our minds, we all worry about the sort of nightmare pandemic envisioned in films like Contagion or The Hot Zone, with some horrific new disease sweeping across the continents and mowing down human victims like so much hay. But wildlife biologists worry more than most, because they've already seen emerging diseases devastate two major animal groups.
Now it seems to be happening yet again, while the two other wildlife pandemics are still raging unresolved: Over the past two decades, the chytrid fungus has contributed to the extinction of perhaps 100 amphibian species - including some of the most colorful, charismatic frogs in the world - with many more extinctions now being predicted. White nose syndrome, another fungal disease, first discovered in 2006, has already killed off 6 to 7 million North American bats and now threatens some species with extinction. No reliable remedy is known for either disease.
The victims of what seems to be a new epidemic are snakes, and they may prove even harder to save, because they are widely unpopular and because populations in many areas tend to be small and scattered. Wildlife biologists first noticed the new pathogen in 2006, among New Hampshire's only surviving population of the timber rattlesnake.
The first victim turned up dead in early June, from a severe fungal infection in the mouth. Other victims displayed skin lesions around the head and, in one case, a severely swollen eye. Within a year, half the population was dead.
Varappuzha: Shrimp farms in Ernakulam district are witnessing an outbreak of the contagious White Spot Syndrome (WSS), putting farmers in a fix.
Fully grown shrimp of Kara breed fetches Rs 500-800 in market depending on the count. Fearing the outbreak of WSS, farmers are now bringing even shrimp, which are not yet fully grown, to the market, but they are unable to attract even one-third of the normal market rate. Unless they are fully-grown, shrimp cannot be exported also, putting farmers in a dilemma. The outbreak of WSS was first revealed after the examination of the shrimp samples conducted at Panangad Fisheries College under the aegis of Kerala Aqua Farmers Federation. There are no effective preventive measures to check the outbreak of WSS
Further examination of shrimp samples revealed the outbreak of the virus in farms located in southern regions of Thrippunithara, Kumbalangi and Chellanam, Kerala Aqua Farmers Federation State Secretary K X Sebastian said.
© Alet Pretorius/Getty ImagesCarcass of a rhino shot in the Kruger national park of South Africa. Both black and white rhino are killed for their horns.
More than 1,000 rhinos were killed in South Africa last year at a record-breaking rate that could wipe out the country's entire population of white and black rhinos in a little over two decades.
The environment ministry said 1,004 animals were killed in 2013, mostly in poaching hotspot Kruger national park, as the poaching crisis escalated. The number is a big increase on the 668 killed in 2012, which was in itself a record year, up from just 13 in 2007.
Appetite for rhino horn from Asia, in particular Vietnam, has driven the killing in South Africa, which ministers have warned in turn threatens the country's tourism sector. Demand is so high that a kilogramme of rhino horn is now worth more than gold or cocaine.
The UK prime minister, David Cameron, is hosting a summit in London next month in a bid to tackle the trade which has also seen tens of thousands of elephants killed in Africa annually in recent years.
Today I would like to debunk the claim that we have to act now because there's a "97% consensus".
In debates I keep hearing the claim that "97% of scientists agree" on global warming science and thus, with such an overwhelming consensus, taking action is a no-brainer. For example Hollywood actor and college dropout George Clooney recently parroted the argument that if 97 of 100 doctors recommend a procedure and 3% don't who are you going to listen to?
Would you listen to the 97 if you knew they had been wrong for 16 years and the remaining 3 had been right all along?
First of all, this "97%" of all climate scientists agree on global warming is bogus to begin with, and is based on a faulty paper by John Cook and Dana Nuccitelli. read here and here.
So in climate science and policy, should we listen to the "97%" and act now? Or should we listen to the outlier 3% fringe group? The answer to that question is: Don't listen to the winner of the popular vote, rather listen to the group that is right. And it turns out that the "97%" have been wrong for the last 16 years and the 3% minority have been right.
97% have been wrong for 16 years
Let's look at the models coming from the "97% consensus" and see how they are doing compared to the real observed data. Here's a plot by Dr. Roy Spencer:
Almost all the models from the "97%" have been flat out wrong.
In debates I keep hearing the claim that "97% of scientists agree" on global warming science and thus, with such an overwhelming consensus, taking action is a no-brainer. For example Hollywood actor and college dropout George Clooney recently parroted the argument that if 97 of 100 doctors recommend a procedure and 3% don't who are you going to listen to?
Would you listen to the 97 if you knew they had been wrong for 16 years and the remaining 3 had been right all along?
First of all, this "97%" of all climate scientists agree on global warming is bogus to begin with, and is based on a faulty paper by John Cook and Dana Nuccitelli. read here and here.
So in climate science and policy, should we listen to the "97%" and act now? Or should we listen to the outlier 3% fringe group? The answer to that question is: Don't listen to the winner of the popular vote, rather listen to the group that is right. And it turns out that the "97%" have been wrong for the last 16 years and the 3% minority have been right.
97% have been wrong for 16 years
Let's look at the models coming from the "97% consensus" and see how they are doing compared to the real observed data. Here's a plot by Dr. Roy Spencer:
© Dr. Roy Spencer
