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Three important events influenced the course of the Syrian war in the course of last month: the Metrojet flight 9268 crash in Sinai October 31, the Paris attacks on Friday November 13 and the downing of a Sukhoi 24 on November 24, 2015.
The MetrojetThe Metrojet crash was not deemed an act of terror to start with. First accounts concentrated on the poor state of the charter plane, on the lack of proper maintenance, on its previously troubled record (a tail strike it had suffered some years earlier), on a possible engine failure. The reports were confusingly contradictory. The pilots had asked permission for emergency landing, - no, they hadn't. The airliner violently steered off the course, rapidly changed its altitude a few times, - no, it did not. There were no traces of explosives - there were traces of explosives all over place.
In a course of a few days, the whole body of conspiracy and anti-conspiracy versions grew around the crash, both in Russia and elsewhere, for instance an
explosion of hydrogen-filled diving cylinder of a sort regularly used by Sharm el Sheikh divers.
I noticed an interesting coincidence: there was the Blue Flag air exercise of Israeli and American air forces in the vicinity of the crash area. The crash occurred within 30 miles of the Israeli border, and Israel
happens to use its drones to kill its enemies in Sinai. The exercise included "firing simulated weapons against fictional enemy missile launchers, convoys and aircraft", according to the official report. What if some of these weapons weren't "simulated"? I would not suggest intentional destruction of a civilian Russian liner, but friendly fire is not unheard of. A missile could go astray.
The Blue Flag was supposed to last until November, 3. However, after the Metrojet crash, it was claimed that the exercise was over October, 29.An Israeli news site
asked the Army spokesman when the exercise was finished, and received the answer: November, 3. The site asked again, while referring to the Russian liner crash. This time, the answer was: October, 29. This discrepancy is not a proof of anything; and anyway, this version gained little currency. However, it was expanded by
an American site and later by a hard-core radical
Russian site (they accused me of "cover-up" for balking at considering Israeli ill intent). I do not think this is the true explanation; just another version in absence of the truth established.
For a long while the Russians denied the crash was caused by enemy action and looked for a technical failure, though the UK and the US suggested a terror attack. Daesh (ISIS) claimed they downed the airliner by a missile and they
published a video of this alleged feat. This claim was met with scorn, as MANPAD missiles can't reach the airliner altitude. It was said that soon Daesh will claim the Sinking of the
Titanic.The Russians mourned their dead, and their campaign in Syria continued with some successes on the ground, while the West continued to condemn it for going against 'moderate opposition' and paying lip service to the war on Daesh. The Russians insisted they were fighting Daesh "or other similar groups".
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