Russia's unexpected decision to supply Syria with S-300 surface-to-air missile systems and to integrate Syria's air defense within the Russian command calls for a quick reassessment of our views. It turned out that Russia is able to learn and respond in an unanticipated way. Yes, in the immediate aftermath of the Il-20 downing, the Russian reaction had been weak. The Russians agreed with Israelis that the plane had been hit by a Syrian S-200 missile. They provided the Israeli military with an opportunity to offer and defend their version of events, while Putin spoke of a "tragic chain of events", apparently exculpating his Israeli partner.
I must admit I had thought that the Russians would accept the Israeli explanations, and the case would rest. This was the view of pro-Kremlin writers and bloggers, and they often know the mind of the Russian authorities.
These guys and gals do not get their instructions directly from the Kremlin, nor do they have a consistent view of Russian interests nor an opinion of their own;
usually they try to guess what the Kremlin will do next and build a defense line for it. If you watch them, you'll get an idea of what the expectation.
They took a rather pro-Israeli line. Whoever called for a stronger response to the Israeli provocation, was called an "anti-Semite firebrand". This is not as deadly a marker in Russia as it is in the West, but it still is not a great compliment, either. Some pro-Kremlin writers blamed the Syrians; so did the liberal opposition to Putin. Julia Latynina, the pet Russian writer of Western liberals, a Putin nemesis, a recipient of the Defender of Freedom Award, with hundreds of references in the
Guardian and the
New York Times, called the Syrians - "apes". (The Russian anti-Putin liberals are racist beyond belief but they love Jews).
A pro-Kremlin English-language writer said that the Iranians (sic!) were to be blamed; perhaps they pushed the button and destroyed the Il. And Syrians surely were guilty as hell. He also ferociously attacked the experts who spoke of Israeli responsibility and called them "antisemites". The chief editors of the Russian semi-official media apparently thought Putin wanted to forget about the whole business of the downed Il-20 as fast as possible. They promptly erased it from their agenda. Incredibly, on the next day the Russian media was practically free from any reference to the disaster. Only the hard old men of the opposition grumbled in their marginal online journals: "We are lost," "Putin obeys his oligarchs," "The Jewish lobby in Moscow won", "Putin cares more of his Jewish friends than of the Russian soldiers".
But they were premature.
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