In 2017, RAND Corporation published in its associated media
Small Wars Journal an
article by the researchers Marta Kepe and Jan Osburg, outlining a strategic defense plan for the Baltic countries in the event of a Russian invasion. The authors claim that Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia will manage their weaknesses to face the Russians, overcoming their population and military deficit through the participation of civilians in the conflicts, working with the armed forces to create a "total defense" plan that would make the invasion too costly and laborious for Russia.
Subsequently, the RAND Corporation article was mentioned in a
paper by the
National Interest magazine, authored by Michael Peck, in which the author studies the Baltic defense strategy, speculating about "total defense" and its efficiency in a possible case of Russian invasion. The researcher, finally, takes a pessimistic conclusion, stating that, despite all efforts, nothing will change the fact that Russia is a large country and the Baltic States are small and weak.
In March last year, the renowned American magazine
Foreign Policy published an
article by Mikheil Saakashvili, former president of Georgia, claiming that Russia's next "targets" would be European nations. In the text, Saakashvili considers the possibility of a Russian attack on the Baltic countries, saying that President Vladimir Putin sees them as real threats because they are "functional democracies on the Russian border". After developing his reasoning, the author comes to the conclusion that this invasion will not occur, pointing other countries as future "targets" of Russia. However, even though Saakashvili does not believe in the possibility of a Russian invasion,
rumors about a Russian plan to invade and annex the Baltic nations have generated unfounded tensions in the region.
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