This certainty is that, in order to believe the German and other government interpretations which have been given of the evidence to date, you have to be suffering from a severe case of brain washing. The lighter the spectrometric mass or weight of the reported Novichok spuren, the heavier the measurable wash on the brain required to believe they are evidence of a Russian state crime.
In political weight, however, Navalny in his present condition is now more valuable outside Russia than he was, or ever could have been, inside Russia when he was in full health. In the politics of next year's German election, when Chancellor Angela Merkel will not be running, the Navalny case weighs more heavily than the Litvinenko, Magnitsky, MH17, and Skripal cases all rolled into one.
In the official exchanges to date, the Russian and German governments have demanded transparency from the other. The German Chancellery declared on September 2 that the "Russian government is asked urgently to explain itself". The Russian Government had already provided, not only Navalny himself, his clothes, and his medical condition reports to the Charité Clinic in Berlin, but it had sent a formal request from the Prosecutor-General in Moscow for German reciprocity - for medical condition evidence, and such evidence as the counterpart German authorities had obtained of a criminal attack.
In response, the Germans have produced not a single medical datum, pathology, toxicology or forensic report. Not one.
Chancellor Angela Merkel, graduate of the Central Institute of Physical Chemistry in Berlin with a PhD in quantum chemistry, knows what a datum is, and what it isn't. "Spuren are not facts", an internationally known German banker with links to the chancellery observes: "For a scientist, Merkel knows what these things mean. In this case, everything she knows she has thrown away."
Comment: It's more than apparent the US has a massive global data collection network used to blackmail, intimidate, and harrass those it seeks to dominate. It's also clear at this point that it has used Big Tech to reach it's goals. Let's not pretend that China is not doing the same though, and actually wants a separation from technology and the state.