© Sputnik / Sergey KarpuhinRussian Presidential Aide Vladimir Medinsky and Russian Deputy Defence Minister Alexander Fomin talk to the media at a news conference following the Russian-Ukrainian talks at the Dolmabahce Palace, in Istanbul, Turkey.
Big Arrow War — a primer. For all those scratching their heads in confusion, or dusting off their dress uniforms for the Ukrainian victory parade in Kiev, over the news about Russia's "strategic shift", you might want to re-familiarize yourself with basic military concepts.
Maneuver warfare is a good place to start. Understand
Russia started its "special military operation" with a severe manpower deficit — 200,000 attackers to some 600,000 defenders (or more).
Classic attritional conflict was never an option. Russian victory required maneuver.Maneuver war is more psychological than physical and focuses more on the operational than on the tactical level. Maneuver is relational movement — how you deploy and move your forces in relation to your opponent. Russian maneuver in the first phase of its operation support this.
The Russians needed to shape the battlefield to their advantage. In order to do this,
they needed to control how Ukraine employed its numerically superior forces, while distributing their own smaller combat power to best accomplish this objective.
Strategically, to facilitate the ability to maneuver between the southern, central, and northern fronts,
Russia needed to secure a land bridge between Crimea and Russia. The seizure of the coastal city of Mariupol was critical to this effort. Russia has accomplished this task.
Comment: Ritter's analysis is in response to the news that Russia has "drastically" reduced its military activity around Kiev and Chernigov. Here's now Russian deputy defense minister Alexander Fomin is
framing the news:
He explained that this decision was taken due to the fact that "negotiations on the preparation of an agreement on the neutrality and non-nuclear status of Ukraine, as well as on the provision of security guarantees to Ukraine" are entering "the practical phase."
Reduction of Russian forces' activity is poised "to increase mutual trust and to create the necessary conditions for the further development of negotiations and the achievement of the ultimate goal of agreeing and signing the agreement," Fomin said.
An anonymous US official reportedly
told Reuters:
"We believe any movement of Russian forces from around Kyiv is a redeployment, not a withdrawal. And the world should be prepared for continued major offensives against other areas of Ukraine," the official said, according to Reuters.
A fair assessment. Shoigu, in his
latest statement, said:
"First, about the special military operation of Russia's armed forces on Ukrainian territory. Overall, the main goals of the first stage have been accomplished. The combat potential of the Ukrainian armed forces has significantly decreased which allows to focus the main attention and main efforts on achieving the main goal - the liberation of Donbass," he said.
According to his assessment, "Ukraine's armed forces have sustained substantial losses." "Air supremacy has been achieved. The air force and the air defense system have been practically eliminated," the defense minister noted.
Comment: Note that even prior to lockdowns and the US proxy-war against Russia, living standards in the West were in significant decline.