In the week that all students returned to school, only 0.06% of rapid Covid tests produced positive results. The
TES has the story.
Only 0.06% of the rapid Covid tests carried out in schools in the week that all pupils returned were positive, new statistics reveal.
More than 4.5 million lateral flow tests were taken in schools and colleges in the week between March 4th and March 10th according to Department of Heath statistics.
But they only picked up 2796 positive cases.
The question is, how many of these positive results
really were positive? Earlier this month, Will Jones
wrote here that "mass testing in schools was always a bad idea - cruel, intrusive, pointless. The high proportion of false positives, with their needless and disruptive requirement to self-isolate, only underlines that fact". A report in the
Telegraph also explained that infection levels are now so low that the majority of positive results could be false.
Biostaticians are concerned that infections in the community are now so low, that false positives and negatives are vastly outnumbering true cases, leading to real cases being missed and families needlessly being asked to isolate.
Pupils are currently being tested twice a week for coronavirus using lateral flow devices, but real-world data has shown they miss positive cases around 50% of the time.
Stop Press: Figures show that children returning to school has not led to a rise in Covid infections. The
Telegraph has the story.
A detailed analysis by Prof Jon Deeks, an expert in biostatistics at Birmingham University, has found that the number of positive cases among pupils are far lower than ministers expected.
"The big question is why is that happening? There are two explanations," he said. "The first is that this test doesn't work very well in children and it doesn't detect the cases. And the other is that asymptomatic infection is much less common in children.
"If the reason is that there aren't many cases, then this is good news. But if the reason is that the tests are missing cases this is bad news. And if we don't know - that is very bad news."
Worth
reading in full.
Comment:
Children returning to school has not led to surge in Covid infections, figures show
The Department of Health's figures, which cover the period from March 4 - 10, also record results of all tests taken at schools which includers teachers and sixth form college students. The results were similar with 2,039 positives out of 3,725,655 equivalent to 0.06 per cent of cases.
"These figures are much lower than the assumptions that the Government have been using to plan this policy," Prof Deeks told The Telegraph. "Clearly the Government predictions are seriously wrong."
It came as two studies showed that children did not have a major impact in spreading infection in the pandemic.
...
Liam Smeeth, Professor of Clinical Epidemiology, at LSHTM said: "There is clearly a great deal of interest in kids going back to school, and what the risks are to households.
"We found that overall no increased risk out in the first wave. In the second wave while we did see a small increased risk of infection this didn't translate into increased risk of death and the absolute increased risks, were really, really small."
A similar study from the University of Glasgow and Public Health Scotland (PHS) found adults living with children were at no greater risk of testing positive for coronavirus - even during periods when schools are open and there was active transmission in the community.
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