
© www.bgr.inEmerging weapons market in Libya piques international interest.
Let's start with the indisputable facts:
the "Arab Spring" Colour Revolution created the pretext for NATO's 2011 War on Libya and the subsequent murder of Gaddafi. US foreign policy is fully responsible for all this and for the rise of terrorism in Libya and the present problem with Daesh in that country. Having got that out of the way, this article is not a polemic. It is an analysis of the reality that currently exists in Libya taking into consideration the geopolitical imperatives of all the sides.
The
UN Security Council recently decided to relax the arms embargo on Libya. Why did that happen and why did Russia and China support it?
For starters, illegal arms have been pouring into Libya for years. It's just that they have not been going to the Libyan government. The arms embargo against Libya imposed by the UN Security Council is
hurting the only forces that are legitimately capable of fighting terrorism in Libya, just as the unilateral Western embargo against Syria had been doing the same in Syria.
The UN Security Council's decision to relax the arms embargo on Libya does not provide for a full resumption of unrestricted weapons sales to Libya. Rather
it permits "exceptions" to the embargo based on the Libyan authorities' requests individually assessed on an
"as-needs" basis.The West created this mess and now wants to profit by "fixing" it by selling weapons to the newly formed Government of National Accord (GNA). Of course it wants to do this for all the wrong reasons. The main reason - other than the publicly stated one of "fighting terrorism" - is to
equip a new loyal proxy enforcer. However it is not guaranteed that will succeed. It is not impossible that the person chosen -
CIA-linked General Haftar - might get a massive ego boost causing him to turn on his unipolar patrons, especially if he feels he can play them off against potential multipolar rivals like Russia and China. Already
he is refusing to recognise the UN-approved government in Tripoli, so there's a chance he might one day "go rogue" and become the second most disruptive factor in Libya behind Daesh.
Comment: The US pattern of arms sales follows its pattern of destabilization...all the way to the bank. Can the US guarantee its arms will not be found in the hands of the terrorists? Or is this precisely the US intent? The fact that Moscow and Beijing will utilize the same 'carrot' poses an interesting dilemma: How do ANY of them guarantee their arms will be delivered to and used exclusively by the GNA? Libya is a potential powder keg with too many side-liners handing out matches!