The conventional narrative holds that China's Belt & Road Initiative is cementing China's global superpower status. There's an alternative narrative, however: it's a decade too late. From this perspective, global trade has reached the top of the S-Curve and is in the stagnation phase, which will be followed by decline or collapse.
Why could global trade decline as a secular trend? The answer of the moment--trade wars-- is more a symptom than the disease itself, which is the benefits of globalization have declined and the negative consequences are becoming unavoidable.
Trade is never "free;" there are always losers to any trade, and if the benefits accrue to the few at the expense of the many, the gains no longer offset the losses. Resistance to globalization is rising, and national interests are gaining political ground.
Comment: It is true, the world cannot support the particular kind of elitist, warmongering, Western globalization that has been pushed for decades now. But China and Russia are at the forefront of helping bring about an alternative and, while it may not be perfect, and it may even fail, it's still a much more equitable offer that, currently, allows for national sovreignity and a future of many more possibilities that benefit the many and not the few: