© AP/Reuters/Getty ImagesChinese Leader Xi Jinping
CNN reporter Katie Bo Lillis tweeted:
Cohen's assessment is in line with assessments shared last year by U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) commander Adml. John Aquilino and his predecessor, Adml. Philip Davidson. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley discussed those assessments with Congress last year.
"Their assessment is based off a speech by President Xi that challenged the People's Liberation Army to accelerate their modernization programs to develop capabilities to seize Taiwan and move it from 2035 to 2027."Milley said he only believed Xi wanted to have the capability to take Taiwan, but that no decision has been made to act on that capability.
"It's a capability, not an intent to attack or seize. My assessment is an operational assessment. Do they have the intent to attack or seize in the near-term defined as the next year or two. My assessment of what I've seen right now is no, but that could always change. Intent is something that could change quickly."Milley said at the time:
"The costs for China to take Taiwan at this time,far exceeds the benefit and President Xi and his military would do the calculation.A November Congressional report assessed China either has or is close to having the capability to seize Taiwan, but that doing so now would be "high risk."
"They know that an invasion, in order to seize an island that big with that many people and the defense capabilities the Taiwanese have, would be extraordinarily complicated and costly."
If China seized Taiwan it would be a major power play in the Indo-Pacific region, where both the U.S. and China are vying for influence.
A recent war game, playing out a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by 2026, found that the U.S. could lose more than 900 fighter jets and several warships to preserve Taiwan's independence.
If Xi were to go about taking Taiwan like Putin is messing about in the Ukraine then yes, it would be complicated and costly but what if Xi goes about things differently?
China is floating its third aircraft carrier and it has already shown that it can encircle and blockade the Island of Taiwan with its current assets, so why wait for five years? Five years of western meddling in the Strait, five years of being slapped in the face by the west? I have trouble with that.
Chinese are deemed 'inscrutable' for a reason.