Bibi scrapes in: Receives mandate to form new Israeli coalition government

Netanyahu Ilya Tsukanov
Sputnik
Tue, 06 Apr 2021 17:10 UTC

© AFP 2021 / POOL / Abir Sultan

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Reuven Rivlin (R) attend a press conference at the president's residence in Jerusalem on April 20, 2015

The veteran Likud politician served as prime minister from 1996-1999, and again from 2009-2013, 2013-2015, 2015-2019, 2019-2020 and 2020-present, with the last three terms served amidst a costly and tumultuous political deadlock in Israeli politics, and allegations of fraud, bribery and breach of trust against Netanyahu himself.

Israeli President Reuven Rivlin tasked current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to form a new coalition government on Tuesday, saying the criminal charges Netanyahu faces are not a roadblock to his ability to serve, even if they may pose "moral and ethical" questions.

"The principal consideration that Israeli presidents must bear in mind when deciding who to entrust with the task of forming a government is which candidate has the best chance of forming a government," Rivlin tweeted.

"I have come to a decision based on the number of recommendations, which indicates that MK Benjamin Netanyahu has a slightly higher chance of forming a government. Accordingly, I have decided to entrust him with the task of doing so," he added. "This is not an easy decision on a moral and ethical basis, in my mind. As I said at the beginning of my remarks, the State of Israel is not to be taken for granted. And I fear for my country."

Nevertheless, Rivlin argued, his decision was based on what his required of him as president by law, by the courts, and in "realizing the will of the sovereign - the Israeli people."

The president also noted that his consultations with lawmakers led him to believe that no candidate actually has a "realistic chance" at forming a government that would gain the confidence of the Knesset, and said he would give the decision back to the legislature if the law allowed him to do so.

Netanyahu now has one month to cobble together a new coalition government. His Likud Party won 30 of the Knesset's 120 seats in the 23 March election. 61 seats are necessary to form a government.

The previous government, put together after the 2 March 2020 elections, included Likud's rivals - Blue and White, led by former IDF commander Benny Gantz. The Likud-Blue and White government collapsed in December after months of bickering over the budget, leading to the March 2021 elections. Gantz warned Saturday that a new "extreme far-right government headed by Benjamin Netanyahu" would create an "unbalanced" situation that would be "a disaster" for Israel. The prime minister, meanwhile, said he felt a "stable right-wing government" was "possible" to continue the "struggle for the homeland," including the "battle against" an Iran seeking to return to the nuclear deal.

It's unclear whether Netanyahu's dreams of a new "right-wing government" will be possible, with Likud and its traditional conservative allies such as United Torah Judaism combined receiving far less than the 61 seats needed to form a coalition. Other right-wing parties, chief among them former defence minister Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu, have viciously attacked Netanyahu in the past and vowed not to form any coalitions with him. After the election results became clear late last month, some observers even speculated that a desparate Netanyahu might tap the United Arab List and its four MK mandates to cobble together some kind of coalition. It's almost impossible to imagine how such a coalition could work, as the United Arab List is an Islamist and anti-Zionist party looking out for the interests of Israeli Arabs.

If Netanyahu is not able to form a government, and no other MKs tapped by the president can do so either, another round of elections will be called. Israel has been in a political deadlock since April 2019, with four rounds of elections since then not enabling any party to form a stable governing coalition.

Netanyahu's corruption trial resumed on Monday. The prime minister is charged with fraud, breach of trust, pay-to-play politicking and graft. He denies all charges against him.

Comment: With a corruption trial running in the background and his credibility at an all time low, Netanyahu has a battle ahead.The danger is that he will find the most willing partners in the ultra far right fringe parties currently on offer. It's never boded worse for Palestine.

The Israeli PM will need to reach the magic number of 61 to remain in his seat. But as he struggles to find allies, this prospect seems to be far-fetched and that means that 28 days from now, President Rivlin will need to decide on whether to give another candidate a try.

Netanyahu, whose Likud party received 30 out of 120 seats in the Israeli parliament, will now have 28 days to build a coalition unless the president extends it by two more weeks.

Mission Impossible?

Together with his natural allies, a bloc of three religious parties, Netanyahu currently has 52 seats in the chamber and that means he is 9 signatures away from remaining in his seat as prime minister.

To obtain that number, he will need to get the support of his former defence minister Naftali Bennett, who garnished 7 seats in the parliament. But the catch is that the latter dreams to replace Netanyahu at his post and might not want to settle for anything less than a premiership role.

Yet, Netanyahu does not lose hope. According to reports, the plan is that members of the religious bloc will convince Bennett to throw his support behind the premier for which he can obtain any ministerial position he would like.

If Bennett ends up accepting that offer, the coalition will still need to arrange for two more signatures to make it to the 61 lawmakers and Likud counts on Bennett to arrange for a solution.

One such solution could be sweet-talking a couple of parliamentarians from other parties to defect to the pro-Netanyahu camp. Another one could be convincing other members of the conservative coalition to sit down in a government that would be supported by Raam, an Islamic party that had previously been delegitimised by Netanyahu and his supporters.

Likud believes that such scenarios could still be an option. Israeli media think otherwise, and if Netanyahu ends up failing, for the fourth time, Rivlin will have no other choice but to return the mandate to the Knesset.

Bennett's Golden Chance

The practical meaning of this would be that any lawmaker willing to try his luck will be entrusted to form a government; Bennett might be the person to attempt to make it happen.

His government, if it ends up being established, will not be characterised by stability. Nor will it be coherent.

One of the problems is that the hawkish Bennett will need to form a coalition with centrists and liberals with whom he has very few points in common. Although that government will also have other conservative elements, including the Likud defector Gideon Saar and former defence minister Avigdor Lieberman, but the majority of members will be on the left of the spectrum. This means that they will not be able to agree on any pressing issues that divide the country today.

Such will be the case with their attitude towards judiciary activism and its interference in Israel's politics. The conservatives will want to bite off that capacity of the High Court to have a say on legislation. The liberals will want to protect the judiciary from such attacks.

The issue of settlements in the West Bank as well as the separation between religion and state will also be an apple of discord that will not be resolved as the two sides will be pulling the rope in their direction.

Projections suggest that if this government is to ever take place, he will try to sweep under the rug all the issues that could potentially cause trouble until the situation gets more stable. The parties that will make up the coalition will focus on other aspects that are still important for Israeli society, including the economic situation that deteriorated following the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic in February 2020.

But as major topics of division will remain unresolved, doubts run high as to whether the Israeli public will be prepared to swallow it.

And that could potentially pave the way for yet another parliamentary race, the fifth in two years that might take place at the end of August.