big ben

In the run-up to the New Year, Western think tanks such as "Stratfor" and others traditionally publish their political forecasts. The eve of 2020 was no exception. But if you look at the published future scenarios, you can't help but notice that, unlike previous years, there is nothing in them about the prospects of the West itself.

In particular, there are no forecasts about a process like Brexit. And this - despite the fact that on January 31st 2020 the delay granted to the UK by the EU Council to leave the pan-European union ends.

It is even more strange that leading Western analysts have left the strengthening of republicanism in the United Kingdom almost unaddressed. The main expression of republican ideas in the UK is the Green Party of England and Wales. It advocates the "restoration" of the republic, which existed between 1649 and 1660. In 2019, the Greens doubled their representation in local authorities - from 178 to 372 seats. In the elections to the European Parliament, they secured the support of more than 2 million voters and held seven candidates in the EP. Finally, Caroline Lucas was elected to the House of Commons at the December election, and Natalie Bennett was elected to the House of Lords. The latter replaced former Conservative leader Theresa May as a peer.

At the same time, politics alone is not limited to Republican influence. Under their control was a large part of the leading British media, in particular influential publications such as The Observer, The Guardian, and The Independent. These newspapers skilfully ridicule any blunders of the derelict British monarchy, increasingly showing an inability to respond adequately to contemporary political challenges.

But such Republican activism cannot be accidental. It is clearly fed materially by someone, and fuelled from the outside. After all, funding for republican projects in the UK itself is banned. Moreover, the United Kingdom still has the 1848 Treason Act, which makes the promotion of republican ideas, including by peaceful means, a criminal offence. Life imprisonment awaits this. However, this rule is not applied in practice. Moreover, republicans have secured several court orders that state law should be interpreted in such a way that it does not contradict human rights law and therefore does not prohibit peaceful republican actions.

At the same time, representatives of British Themis and the judicial authorities, who registered these decisions as law enforcement practices, could not but realise that the idea of a republic is the idea of the dissolution of the country. After all, legally, the four parts of the United Kingdom - England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland - are linked only by the presence of a common monarch. If a republic is proclaimed, this link will disappear. It is no coincidence that the Greens' allies in Parliament are 48 Scottish National Party MPs, as well as seven representatives of Ireland's Sinn Féin

As a matter of fact, the leaders of the Green Party of England and Wales are not hiding their idea of supporting the independence of Scotland and Northern Ireland. They find support for this (at least in Northern Ireland) and from another influential Republican, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn.

In this situation, and given the silence of Western analysts, one can only guess how far foreign sponsors of republican ideas will go in 2020.

However, we will still risk making one assumption. In the world of capital, any policy lies exclusively in the world of finance. Therefore, the unity of Great Britain will depend to a large extent on whether the British will be able to cut the debt knot which, like an octopus, has entangled all of Europe.

The following explanation is required here. Based on the research of ESCP Europe on debt cross-penetration in Europe since 2011, the picture of debt dependence of European countries resembles a pyramid.

Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Greece are financially dependent on Germany and France. Paris and Berlin account for 50 to 75% of the total debt of four Southern European countries. If "cross" debts are discarded, between 60 and 80% of France and Germany's external debts are owed to the United Kingdom and the United States. The UK also accounts for about 40% of Ireland's debt. But if we look at the structure of the United Kingdom's external debt, it turns out that Washington is London's main creditor. The United States (directly and indirectly) accounts for up to 50% of the UK's external debt. Finally, if we look at the structure of US debt, up to 50% of US debt is owed by private banks that are part of the Fed or affiliated entities.

Thus, the end of the European debt knot stretches beyond the ocean and is in the hands of the hosts of the Federal Reserve. Without their involvement, the UK is unable to resolve debt issues with the European Union. But the whole thing is that negotiations to restructure external debt are key within the framework of Brexit. Without their successful completion, the UK cannot leave the European Union. Otherwise, having regained political sovereignty, London will lose the remnants of financial independence.

To date, the British have impressive debts to the Fed's owners, but have comparable obligations from Europeans. In the case of a so-called hard Brexit, this picture will be broken. The UK will have problems recovering the debt of EU countries. However, it would not be possible to postpone the repayment of debts owed to the United States.

Then the only way out will be only the elimination of a unified state. After all, only in this case will there be no one responsible for the debts of the United Kingdom. They just won't have any successors. As a matter of fact, it is the British who are pushed by someone's invisible but very caring foreign hand. A hand that prefers to remain incognito and has such an impact that Stratfor and other Western analytical companies prefer not to even remember it in anticipation of 2020.

Only one thing remains to be added to this. The British monarchy is not just the UK. It is also the Commonwealth of Nations, which includes 53 States scattered across all continents. In all these countries, the British Queen has a legally established status as a princeps, i.e. "first person". But more importantly: Commonwealth members are financially dependent on London. Suffice it to recall that the central banks of India, South Africa, Pakistan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Malaysia, Nigeria, and Mozambique are fully or partially controlled by the British. This list is enough to understand that the turmoil in the UK will inevitably take place in all corners of the planet.