The writer and Soviet dissident Alexander Solzhenitsyn predicted the current situation in Ukraine almost half a century agoDead write: many of Solzhenitsyn's predictions for the future of Ukraine have come to a painful fruition
In
The Gulag Archipelago, the Nobel laureate wrote: "With Ukraine, things will get extremely painful."
Even during Soviet times, Alexander Solzhenitsyn prophetically did not rule out the idea that Ukraine may break away, although "a referendum may be required for each region", given the Bolshevik way of lumping together lands that had never historically belonged to Ukraine.
The Gulag Archipelago, Part 5, Chapter 2... It pains me to write this as Ukraine and Russia are merged in my blood, in my heart, and in my thoughts. But extensive experience of friendly contacts with Ukrainians in the camps has shown me how much of a painful grudge they hold. Our generation will not escape from paying for the mistakes of our fathers.
To stamp one's foot and shout: "This is mine!" is the easiest option. It is far more difficult to say: "Those who want to live, live!" Surprising as it may be, the Marxist teaching prediction that nationalism is fading has not come true. On the contrary, in an age of nuclear research and cybernetics, it has for some reason flourished. And time is coming for us, whether we like it or not, to repay all the promissory notes of self-determination and independence; do it ourselves rather than wait to be burnt at the stake, drowned in a river or beheaded. We must prove whether we are a great nation not with the vastness of our territory or the number of peoples in our care but with the greatness of our deeds. And with the depth of ploughing what we shall have left after those lands that will not want to stay with us secede.
With Ukraine, things will get extremely painful. But one has to understand the degree of tension they feel. As it has been impossible for centuries to resolve it, it is now down to us to show good sense. We must hand over the decision-making to them: federalists or separatists, whichever of them wins. Not to give in would be mad and cruel. The more lenient, patient, coherent we now are, the more hope there will be to restore unity in future.
Let them live it, let them test it. They will soon understand that not all problems are resolved through separation. (Since in different regions of Ukraine there is a different proportion of those who consider themselves Ukrainians, those who consider themselves Russians and those who consider themselves neither, there will be many difficulties there. Maybe it will be necessary to have a referendum in each region and then ensure preferential and delicate treatment of those who would want to leave. Not the whole of Ukraine in its current formal Soviet borders is indeed Ukraine.
Some regions on the left bank [of the River Dnieper] clearly lean more towards Russia. As for Crimea, Khrushchev's decision to hand it over to Ukraine was totally arbitrary. And what about Carpathian (Red) Ruthenia? That will serve as a test, too: while demanding justice for themselves, how just will the Ukrainians be to Carpathian Russians?)Written in 1968; published in 1974.
Comment: The Western media is still parroting the threadbare propaganda line that Russia is at fault for east Ukraine's unwillingness to support a fascist, racist, prostitute government in Kiev. Russia is not engaging in provocation; the West is. Russia is not responsible for the civil war and unrest; the West is. Russia is doing all it can to deal with Western provocation, but her options are running out. Even if Russia IS supplying the independents in SE Ukraine, it's the least they can do. They need all the help they can get to protect themselves from the terrorist government in Kiev. But so far, all we have are "he said, she said" claims and conjecture, along with a provocative but totally inconclusive satellite image. Show us the PROOF.