China and Russia have been remarkably quiet, watching carefully the global tectonic plates shifting around in response to the 'two wars' (Ukraine and Israel's 'multiwar'). Really it is not surprising; both states can sit back to simply watch Biden and his team persist with their strategic mistakes in Ukraine and in Israel's multiple wars.

The interlacing of the two wars will, of course, shape the new era. There are substantive risks, but for now they can observe with comfort from afar as a climatic juncture in world politics unfolds, gradually raising the pace of the attrition to a circle of fire.

The point here is that Biden, at the centre of the storm, is no cool-headed Sun-Tzu. His politics are personal and highly visceral: As Noah Lanard has written in his forensic analysis of How Joe Biden Became America's Top Hawk, his own team say it plainly: Biden's politics is seated in his 'kishkes' - his guts.

That can be seen in the disdainful and graphic way in which Biden sneers at President Putin as an 'autocrat', and the way he talks about victims of the Hamas attack being massacred, sexually assaulted, and taken hostage, whilst "Palestinian suffering is left vague - if mentioned at all". "I don't really think he sees the Palestinians at all", says Rashid Khalidi, Professor of Modern Arab Studies at Columbia University.

There is a long and reputable history of leaders making the right spur of the moment decision from their unconscious, without careful rational calculous. In the ancient world this was a highly prized quality. Odysseus exuded it. It was called mêtis. But this ability was contingent on having a dispassionate temperament and an ability to see things 'in the round'; to grasp both sides to a coin, we would say.

But what happens if, as Professor Khalidi implies, the 'kishkes' are filled with anger and bile; instinctive sympathy for Israel, fuelled by an outdated view of the Israeli domestic scene. "He just does not seem to acknowledge the humanity of [others]", as a former Team Biden member put it to Lanard.

A recent Foreign Affairs article purports to expose "China's game in Gaza," accusing Beijing of "Exploiting Israel's War to Win Over the Global South."

The author alleges that "in calling for a two-state solution, refusing to condemn Hamas, and making symbolic efforts to support a ceasefire, [China] has taken advantage of global anti-Israeli sentiment in a bid to elevate its own standing in the Global South."

This argument is interesting, because it is premised on the logic that the war on Gaza can end quickly if Beijing simply supports the US position, which the article claims is "to reconcile public support for Israel with private pressure to more carefully target its attacks in Gaza and to be more open to a political settlement with the Palestinians." So let's get this right, it's the US that wants to end this conflict fairly and China is exacerbating it and therefore is at fault?

Sky News Arabia cited unnamed sources to report that the US allegedly tipped the Houthis off before last week's strikes, which exploited a recent UNSC Resolution that Russia declined to veto for the reasons explained here, thus giving that Yemeni rebel group time to prepare by moving around their missiles. According to them, this was done to prevent the Houthis from reacting in a way that would further escalate the Red Sea crisis such as by trying to take out an American ship in response.

It was predicted here last month that there might be a replication of January 2020's scenario wherein Iran reportedly tipped off the US before attacking its bases in Iraq after Soleimani's assassination. The purpose behind doing so was also to prevent a further escalation, which is precisely what happened after the US played along, at least if one ascribes to that interpretation of events. While it's too early to tell whether this was also the case with the Houthis, it's still notable that they haven't yet responded.

Top officials from dozens of countries who met in Switzerland to discuss Ukraine's 'peace formula' were engaged in a completely useless endeavor without Russian participation, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday.

On Sunday, national security advisers from 81 nations and international organizations gathered in Davos ahead of the World Economic Forum to talk about a 10-point initiative floated by Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky in October 2022 to end hostilities with Russia.

The plan calls for the withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory Kiev claims as its own and insists on the creation of a tribunal to prosecute Moscow for alleged war crimes. Russia has dismissed the proposal as divorced from reality.

Ukraine's 2023 counteroffensive was "not successful" and Russia has the upper hand strategically, former Polish prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki admitted, in an interview with Britain's Express newspaper published on Friday.

The conflict in Ukraine is "not going in the right direction," Morawiecki told the outlet, outlining his "huge concern" with a situation in which Moscow had apparently outflanked its opponents.

Russia has "huge resources," he explained, noting the country's military production capabilities significantly outweighed the EU's own. "They have this strategic depth, and they have patience in international politics," he added, also dismissing the country's elections scheduled for March as mere "theater" unlikely to change the balance of power in Moscow.

The main events of international politics in 2023 have shown that the origin of the current fundamental changes is natural, and the main processes are constructive. That is why the past year will be considered by future historians as the end of the period in which the new reality was perceived with trepidation, and the beginning of a time when a constructive attitude was developed towards it. In other words, it was in 2023 that many of us finally realized that the collapse of the previous international order is not a catastrophe, but instead brings significant benefits for the development of the whole world.

Because the very nature of international politics is formed on tragedies, these policies will always be accompanied by the upheavals and horrors of war. But somewhat obscured by all the dramas we are witnessing now, the features of the equilibrium that will form the basis of a relatively peaceful and just order in the future are gradually emerging.

All the more so because some of the characteristics of this new reality have already become visible.

Guidance for officers deployed to Israel appears to show the U.S. military providing intelligence for airstrikes in Gaza.

TARGETING INTELLIGENCE — The information used to conduct airstrikes and fire long-range artillery weapons — has played a central role in Israel's siege of Gaza. A document obtained through the Freedom of Information Act suggests that the U.S. Air Force sent officers specializing in this exact form of intelligence to Israel in late November.

Since the start of Israel's bombardment in retaliation for Hamas's strike on October 7, Israel has dropped more than 29,000 bombs on the tiny Gaza Strip, according to a U.S. intelligence report last month. And for the first time in U.S. history, the Biden administration has been flying surveillance drone missions over Gaza since at least early November, ostensibly for hostage recovery by special forces. At the time the drones were revealed, U.S. Gen. Pat Ryder insisted that the special operations forces deployed to Israel to advise on hostage rescue were "not participating in [Israel Defense Forces] target development."

Three days after the Hamas attack President Joe Biden said:

"I've directed my team to share intelligence and deploy additional experts from across the United States government to consult with and advise the Israeli counterparts on hostage recovery efforts."

But several weeks later, on November 21, the U.S. Air Force issued deployment guidelines for officers, including intelligence engagement officers, headed to Israel. Experts say that a team of targeting officers like this would be used to provide satellite intelligence to the Israelis for the purpose of offensive targeting.

The organization is an 'accomplice' of Hamas, West Jerusalem's representative to the international body has claimed...

Israel's ambassador to the United Nations, Gilad Erdan, has said that the United Nations itself should stand trial in The Hague for acting "in service of terrorist organizations." His remarks were in response to a genocide case brought before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) over its war with Hamas.

On Friday, Israel asked the UN's ICJ to throw out a case brought by South Africa in late December that accused the state of committing genocide in its ongoing bombardment of Gaza.

Israel has sternly denied allegations of genocide, insisting that its ground and aerial offensive of the besieged Palestinian enclave is within the boundaries of international law and that it has a fundamental right to self-defense.

Israel formally responded to the genocide charge before the court in The Hague on Friday, accusing South Africa of "brazen gall" and saying that the genocide claim constitutes a "false and baseless" defense of Hamas.

Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Lai Ching-te was proclaimed the victor of the regional election on the island by the Taiwanese Central Election Commission on January 13.

Not long after his victory, Lai proclaimed during a press conference that he and his colleagues will "protect Taiwan from China's continued threats and intimidation."

On the mainland, China's Taiwan Affairs Office chief Chen Binhua declared that Beijing "will adhere to the 1992 consensus, which embodies the One China principle, and firmly oppose separatist actions aimed at achieving Taiwan's independence, as well as interference by external forces."

So far, it seems that the DPP "will continue to occupy the [so-called] Presidential Office and do the bidding of the United States," which is "ultimately a victory for Western empire," said Jeff Brown, author of The China Trilogy and editor at China Rising Radio Sinoland. According to him:

"The US will make the most of the current situation to frustrate and irritate Beijing, along with vassals South Korea, Japan and the Philippines, three countries heavily occupied by American troops. Beijing will continue to publicly bluster about these ongoing insults, while doing everything possible to avoid a hot war in East Asia, which would hinder the country's continuing economic, science/technology and infrastructure development, to improve the lives of the people. Nonetheless, President Xi Jinping has repeatedly said Taiwan has two choices: peaceful reunification before 2049 or an overwhelming military response if the island declares independence."

Bombing a country a 'thousand miles from one's own borders' is not consistent with the right to self-defense, Russia's envoy to the UN said...

Strikes by the United States and its allies on Yemen are a violation of the UN Charter, and they can't be justified, Moscow's envoy to the UN, Vassily Nebenzia, told a Security Council meeting on Friday.

Moscow convened an urgent United Nations Security Council meeting after the US and UK carried out attacks against alleged Houthi military positions in Yemen in the early hours of Friday without authorization from the UN body.

Washington said it was responding to the group targeting shipping routes in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. US Central Command confirmed this morning that the US launched an additional strike on Saturday morning, describing it as targeting a Houthi radar site in Yemen.

The Houthis targeted ships that they claimed were linked to Israel in response to the three-month siege of Gaza.

"It is one thing to protect commercial shipping, attacks on which are unacceptable, but it is completely different to disproportionately and illegally bomb another state," the Russian diplomat said, adding that the coalition's aggressive actions are contrary to Article 2 of the UN Charter.