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Shadow play: The New Great Game in Eurasia

Wayang kulit puppets in Java, Indonesia
© Collection Jean François HubertWayang kulit puppets in Java, Indonesia.
So, right in the heart of Bali, spellbound after a serious conversation with a dukun — a spiritual master — it struck me: this should be the new Yalta, the perfect setting for a Trump-Xi-Putin summit setting the parameters ahead for the ever-evolving New Great Game in Eurasia.

Balinese culture makes no distinction between the secular and the supernatural — sekala and niskala. Sekala is what our senses may discern. Niskala is what cannot be sensed directly and can only be "suggested". Massive geopolitical shifts ahead could not be more shrouded in niskala.

Captive to the vertiginous velocity of the here and now, the West still has much to learn from a highly evolved culture that prospered 5,000 years ago along the banks or the river Sindhu — now Indus — in what is currently Pakistan, and then migrated from the Majapahit empire in Java to Bali in the 14th century under the pressure of advancing Islam.

Arrow Up

Pepe Escobar: So what now in Iran?

Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani
© AFP 2016/Raheb HomavandiFormer Iranian president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani attends Iran's Assembly of Experts biannual meeting in Tehran. (File)
Not only Iranian politics but the whole of Southwest Asia enter another era after the heart attack, this past Sunday, that killed Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, 82, president from 1989 to 1997 and a stalwart of the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

It's as if for these past four decades, "Hashemi" - as he is popularly know in Iran (adversaries call him "The Shark") - was always there.

Few would be as well equipped to draw a succinct portrait of the politically chameleonic qualities of Hashemi The Shark as Prof. Syed Mohammad Marandi, dean of the Faculty of World Studies at Tehran University.

Marandi notes, "He was an extraordinary smart person, who was also a political genius. His alliances easily shifted, since he saw himself as a centrist. In the late 1980s and 1990s the leftists (later reformists) hated him and claimed that he was pro-American and a liberal capitalist who crushed the poor. At that time he was close to the conservatives (later principalists), but the leftists (later reformists) couldn't hurt him especially in the 1980s when he was very popular."

Confused? Well, that's Iran's complex/convoluted politics in a nutshell; nothing can be understood if one does not apprehend the nuances between principalists (those faithful to the radical precepts of the revolution) and reformists (some now within the current Rouhani administration, some silenced for good).

Attention

Donetsk People's Republic defense spokesman Eduard Basurin reports Ukrainian offensive likely around Trump's inauguration day

Ukrainian soldiers
On January 8th, the deputy commander of the operational command of the Donetsk People's Republic, Eduard Basurin, reported that Ukrainian security forces were preparing a provocation with possible casualties among the civilian population in the area of Marinka.

Basurin stated: "We call on Ukrainian authorities to cease and not commit foolish and rash actions which will lead to new casualties, including among the civilian population. We also want to draw the attention of the OSCE mission and UN representatives to this fact and demand that measures be taken to prevent provocations from the UAF."

Earlier, another truce was supposed to enter into force on the night of December 23rd-24th, 2016. The events of the first hours of December 24th, however, showed that these expectations were not to be fulfilled. Observers in the field did, however, note a relative decline in the intensity of UAF shelling.

The UAF provocation exposed by Eduard Basurin is a continuation and development of the Svetlodar adventure. In fairness, it should be added that the Ukrainians themselves never concealed their plans. They have repeatedly said that Minsk-2 is for them a tactical ploy and that the "Ukrainian liberators" will not leave the "separatists" in peace. Even their main target lines have been named: Debaltsevo (at the junction of the DPR and LPR), Stanitsa Luganskaya (LPR), and Marino-Shirokino (southern DPR). For the Ukrainians, provocations like the recent firefights near Svetlodar and the expected provocation near Marinko are part of a single plan of conducting reconnaissance via forays on strategic fronts.

It is rather dubious that such an obvious violation by Kiev of the Minsk Agreements will draw broad international condemnation. Kiev has long since thought up an explanatory formula for justifying offensive actions and, in the least, the OSCE mission has literally closed its eyes more than once to violations by the Ukrainian side. An offensive, however, will most likely end in another tactical defeat.

Attention

US aristocracy panics that maybe Trump is serious

Obama and Hillary Clinton
On January 2nd, the U.S. Republican Party's Wall Street Journal headlined "Tensions Within GOP Rise Over How to Handle Russia", and reported that the policy toward Russia by the incoming Republican President Donald Trump is being opposed not only by Democrats in the U.S. Congress, but also by some Republicans, and perhaps even by enough Republicans to jeopardize confirmation of his nominee for U.S. Secretary of State, as well as some nominees for other crucial diplomatic and military positions.

A key insightful passage in that news-report was: "'What you are seeing on Russia within the Republican Party is in some ways more a symptom of realignment across the board within American political parties,' said Matthew Rojansky, director of the Washington-based Kennan Institute. 'This speaks to something very critical that's going on in our political system right now.'"

Megaphone

'Carter got wrong country': Shoigu slams Ash Carter for nonsensical claim that Russia contributed "virtually zero" in fighting terrorists in Syria

russian soldiers demining
© Ministry of defence of the Russian Federation / SputnikMilitary engineers of the Russian Army's international counter-mine center continue the demining operation in eastern Aleppo, Syria
Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu slammed Pentagon chief Ashton Carter for confusing the facts, after the US official said Russia's contribution to fighting terrorism in Syria was "virtually zero." Shoigu advised Carter to be more careful with his assessments.

"Yesterday I listened to a speech by one of my foreign counterparts... He said that Russia's contribution to the struggle against terrorism in Syria and in the region was equal to zero. I might have subscribed to what he said in a sense only if: A, that counterpart of mine had not picked the wrong country; and, B, he had been more careful in his comments," Shoigu said Tuesday at a meeting with the leadership of the Russian Defense Ministry.

In an interview on Sunday with NBC's Meet the Press, US Secretary of Defense Carter claimed that Russia had done nothing in the fight against Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL) terrorists in Syria.

"They [Russia] haven't done anything. They came in, they said they were going to fight ISIL, and they said they were going to help in the civil war in Syria. They haven't done either of those things. As a consequence of course, we're fighting ISIL ourselves," Carter stated, adding that Moscow had achieved "virtually zero" in resolving the Syrian crisis.

Blackbox

Could Turkey swing over to the Russian camp?

John Kerry and Victoria Nuland
What John Kerry does in daylight, Victoria Nuland undoes at night.
Even though, historically, Russia has a weighty past with Turkey, and even though it has not forgotten the personal role played by current President Erdoğan, to its detriment, during the the first Chechen war, it can not fail to be interested by the possibility of Ankara leaving NATO. On the other hand, the deep US state, which continues to pursue its imperial ambitions despite the election of Donald Trump, is ready to do whatever it takes to keep Turkey in the Atlantic Alliance.

In order to guarantee his personal survival, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has launched a vast purge of all the pro-US elements in his country — a purge which he must add to the combats in which he is already engaged against Syria, against the PKK, and now also against his ex-mercenaries from Daesh.

Comment: The Geneva convention on Cyprus is starting: Cyprus peace talks underway to reunify the island prior to conference


Chess

Last minute smear? Tillerson reportedly worked with Iran while Exxon CEO

Rex Tillerson
© Daniel Kramer / ReutersRex Tillerson, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's pick to be Secretary of State
US oil major ExxonMobil led by the future secretary of state Rex Tillerson did business with sanctioned Iran as well as Syria and Sudan through a European subsidiary, USA Today reports, quoting Securities and Exchange Commission filings.

The sales were made in 2003 to 2005 by Infineum, Exxon's European joint venture with Shell. The US oil company had a 50 percent share in the enterprise, according to SEC documents revealed by a research group American Bridge.

Tillerson, who has was chosen by US President-elect Donald Trump for the post of secretary of state, was ExxonMobil's president and director at the time before becoming CEO in 2006.

According to ExxonMobil, these deals were legal, as they were made by a European company without involving US employees. The company had $53.2 million in sales to Iran, $600,000 in sales to Sudan and $1.1 million in sales to Syria during the three years.

Question

Paul Craig Roberts: Is Trump ceding control to Goldman Sachs or choosing his enemies wisely?

Goldman Sachs
© Reuters/Lucas Jackson
Is Goldman Sachs Taking Control of the Trump Presidency?

Pam and Russ Martens have compiled an amazing roster of present and former Goldman Sachs executives ensconced in the Trump transition team and announced as Trump appointees.

This is discouraging.

On the other hand, the Senate is unlikely to refuse confirmation to Goldman Sachs personnel.

Many people have worked for Goldman Sachs, including Nomi Prins, and Pam Martens worked on Wall Street. Both are effective critics of the big banks.

Some of Trump's most important appointments—State, Defense, and National Security
Advisor—are supportive of his intentions to restore normal relations with Russia, reorganize the CIA, and get the US out of pointless wars. If he can achieve these things or even one of them, it is a victory regardless if he fails to take on the banks.

Comment:


Che Guevara

The Many Victories of Maduro in 2016

maduro
In early 2016,Venezuela's authorities had very difficult problems to solve. Namely, 1) the neoliberal opposition had won the legislative elections of 2015 and controlled the National Assembly, 2) the price of oil, the main export of Venezuela, had fallen to its lowest point in decades, and 3) US President Barack Obama had signed an executive order that declared Venezuela to be an "unusual and extraordinary threat to the US national security and foreign policy".

That is, in three decisive areas (political, economic and geopolitical), the Bolivarian revolution seemed to be playing defensively. Meanwhile, the counter-revolution, both internal and external, seemed to have power at its fingertips.

Furthermore, Chavism had been under media attack since Hugo Chávez had arrived to power in 1999. The negative propaganda had intensified since April 2013 and reached unseen levels of violence after the election of President Nicolás Maduro.

This permanent aggression by the media created and propagated such a level of disinformation about Venezuela that it even confused many friends of the Bolivarian revolution. In particular because, in this "post-truth era", lies, intellectual fraud and deceit aren't sanctioned with any sort of negative consequence, not even in terms of credibility or image. Anything goes, everything that's useful to achieve an end is valid in this era of post-factual relativism, and sometimes not even the most objective facts or pieces of data are enough to disprove false statements. Denounces against this strategy are ridiculed by media as "conspiracy theories", and an obsolete element of an "old narrative" that has no basis.

Stock Up

Defying Obama's pre-Brexit warning, Boris Johnson says Britain 'first in line' for US trade deal

Britain's Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson.
© Peter Nicholls / ReutersBritain's Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson.
Britain will be "first in line" to negotiate a new trade deal with the US, Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson has said after talks with President-elect Donald Trump's team and senior Republicans.

Johnson, who once quipped he would not visit parts of New York because there was a "real risk of meeting Donald Trump," has been in the city talking to the Trump team this week before meeting top Republicans in Washington, DC.


Comment: Johnson did not actually meet with Trump, who snubbed Boris in favor of others including Asian investors. That does not bode well for Johnson's idea that the UK will be first in line to negotiate a new trade deal.


On his return to London, Johnson told MPs there was a "huge fund of goodwill for the UK on Capitol Hill."

He said there was "a very large measure of understanding that now is the time to do a free trade deal," and said "they want to do it, they want to do it fast."