In response to Kiev bombardment of Donbass, Russian military presence increases near Ukraine border

Alex Blair
news.com.au
Sun, 04 Apr 2021 23:11 UTC

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Dozens of heavily armoured vehicles were spotted convoying on bordering highways.

NATO has formally warned Russia against sending troops into Ukraine as Moscow's military builds up on the border worrying defence watchers.

An evolving crisis on the Russia-Ukraine border has Europe on high alert, with a defence watcher warning the situation could descend into a "world war" within weeks if tensions aren't stemmed.

Russian officials have been quick to downplay footage of tanks, artillery and as many as 4000 troops mobilising on the disputed border, which has been under the microscope since 2014 when Russia invaded the Crimea region which is internationally recognised as being part of Ukraine.

Comment: "Russia invaded the Crimea region "? Not even close - though Western interests would have you think so. See:

• Will they ever stop saying "Putin invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea?"
• US completely invalidates all of its own arguments about Crimea
• 'Legal, popular, and justified': Former German chancellor Schröder on Crimea reunification with Russia
• Crimea After 5 Years Of 'Evil' Russian 'Occupation'

President Vladimir Putin authorised military force which saw Moscow seize Crimea as well as parts of the eastern Donbas region of Ukraine.

All of these action were preceded by Russian troop build up on the border.

Worryingly, recent footage has emerged of the Russian military again setting up shop in the regions of Voronezh, Rostov and Krasnodar, on Ukraine's eastern border.

As the heat once again begins to rise between the two nations, a Russian military expert has pondered whether the world might is equipped to deal with a new assault on Ukraine.

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Russian officials have warned the West to stay out of the way, warning an escalation in the Donbas region could destroy the Ukraine

Speaking to the Rosbalt news organisation in Russia, defence analyst Pavel Felgenhauer said the unpredictability of the nation's push was cause for extra concern.

"The crisis has the potential to escalate into a pan-European war, if not even a world one," Mr Felgenhauer said.

Comment: Its all Russia's doing of course. Nothing about NATO and the West here about egging on the worst political elements in the Ukraine to ignore the Minsk II agreements and continue its own arms build-up and aggression in Donbass.

"For now, (just) potential. Will it happen or not? Let's wait and see. In the West, they don't know what to do about it."

He added that Russia was building towards its annual Victory Day parade on May 9 when examples of the nuclear superpower's arsenal will be paraded through the Moscow streets and Putin will give a keynote speech.

Mr Felgenhauer said the closure of pro-Russian TV channels in Ukraine, the threat of arrest and trial of Ukrainian politician Viktor Medvedchyuk, the arrest of Alexei Navalny, and the fact US President Joe Biden called Putin a "killer" were all pieces of the puzzle in Russia's latest display of power.

"The threats are growing, and rapidly. Much is not discussed in the media, but we are seeing very bad signs,' he said. "The facts are there, everything is already happening."

Russia warns the west

Russian officials have already warned the West against getting involved, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov insisting they would take additional measures if the West sent military aid. According to Mr Peskov, a push from NATO would only escalate tensions near the border.

"No doubt such a scenario would lead to a further increase in tensions close to Russia's borders," he said. "Of course, this would call for additional measures from the Russian side to ensure its security."

Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said the Ukraine military understood the severity of pursuing conflict with the superpower, ominously warning that a new war in the region of Donbas would "destroy Ukraine".

"I very much hope that they will not be 'incited' by politicians, who in turn will be 'incited' by the West, led by the United States," said Mr Lavrov.

"Russian President Putin said (this) not long ago, but this statement is still relevant today, that those who would try to start a new war in Donbas will destroy Ukraine."

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Russian President Vladimir Putin addresses on the occasion of the Day of the National Guard Troops, in Moscow, on March 27, 2021

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Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky says his country is ready to respond to any provocation as a result of Russia's 'muscle flexing'.

US pledges support, but doubts over how deep support really is

President Biden pledged support in his first phone call to Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday after the Kiev government accused Moscow of building up a military threat on its border.

In a statement released by the White House, Biden "affirmed the United States' unwavering support for Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity in the face of Russia's ongoing aggression in the Donbass and Crimea".

Zelensky has been particularly vocal about Russia's growing presence on his doorstep, condemning their approach as muscle flexing exercise. Citing his army's "wisdom and balance", the Ukrainian President warned his country was "always ready for any provocations".

"Russian military build-up on the border with Ukraine and muscle-flexing in the form of military exercises and possible provocations along the border is a traditional Russian affair," Zelensky said.

"In this way, it seeks to create an atmosphere of threat and, at the same time, of pressure during the negotiations on the ceasefire and on peace as our value.

"Our army is not just strength and power; it is also wisdom and balance. Our state is unity. We are always ready for any provocations."

A NATO source told Reuters this week that there are concerns over Russia's recent military mobilisation despite Moscow's insisted it is not being a threat.

"Allies shared their concerns about Russia's recent large-scale military activities in and around Ukraine. Allies are also concerned about Russian violations of the July 2020 ceasefire that led to the death of four Ukrainian soldiers last week," the official said.

Comment: More nonsense.

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Stills from footage posted to social media have revealed the extent of Russia's military build-up on the eastern Ukraine border.

Reuters Kiev correspondent Hasan Abdullah said the Ukrainian military confirmed it had carried out military drills with NATO forces, but there was still "off camera" hesitation for the scale of support coming from international militaries.

"There is reservation about the scope of US support. If there is any military escalation with Russia's military, what will be the extent of their support?" he told TRT World.

"There is this view here that Ukraine has been brought into a direct conflict, and that the US does not go beyond statements and political support."

Comment: In stark contrast RT provides this far more measured analysis of the situation here:

As tensions escalate in eastern Ukraine, the real danger is not a Russian invasion, but that the Ukrainian government will misinterpret American signals of support as a green light for an assault on the rebel republics in Donbass.

Russia is about to invade Ukraine. So you'd think, if you believed recent headlines. "Tensions skyrocket as Russia masses forces near eastern Ukraine," says the Kyiv Post. "Russian troops and tanks mass on Ukraine border," declares the Sun. Russia is "flooding Crimea with trains full of tanks," claims the Daily Mail. And so on.

Since spring 2014, the Ukrainian army has been fighting rebel forces in Donbass in eastern Ukraine. The Ukrainian government has long accused Russia of supporting, arming, and bankrolling the rebels, but it is now saying that Moscow may go even further. According to the Kiev news agency, UNIAN, "Russia may try to go for an incursion and deploy its troops deeper into the territory of Ukraine ... Ukraine's military intelligence agency, GUR MO, has reported."

Indeed, UNIAN cites GUR MO as saying:

"The Russian Federation is completing preparations for a set of measures, aimed at pushing our country for a military response to the invaders' hostile action ... expanding Russia's military presence on the territory of the so-called 'DPR' and 'LPR' [Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics] by introducing regular units of the Russian armed forces, justifying the move by the need to protect Russian citizens."

Meanwhile the business journal OilPrice.com reports:

"In Belarus and Ukraine, the West is perceived to be waging a hybrid war against Moscow. From Putin's point of view, the only option now is to actively counter-attack. Military analysts are still arguing about what Moscow's options are in the coming days. The majority expect a so-called localized escalation, dramatic and devastating, leading to the deployment of Russian 'peacekeepers'."

The identity of this "majority" of experts is not revealed, possibly because it doesn't exist. But the basic scenario portrayed by the media is clear: Russia is preparing to attack Ukraine, using some sort of provocation to make it seem as if the attack is justified in order to defend the people of Donbass against the Ukrainian army.

The logic here is somewhat similar to that often used when discussing the 2008 war between Russia and Georgia. For it is often claimed that Russia "provoked" the Georgians into attacking South Ossetia, so as to launch a long-planned invasion of its own. The truth was rather different. An independent commission created by the European Union found Georgia to be primarily responsible for starting the 2008 war. Nevertheless, the Georgian example raises the spectre that the Ukrainian army, and its Western amplifiers, may be preparing the informational terrain to justify an attack on the rebel forces in Donbass by making it appear as if it is acting in self-defence to forestall an imminent Russian assault.

And here are Russia's direct statements on the build-up:

The deployment of military hardware and thousands of troops to Western Russia is not the beginning of an invasion of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin's spokesman has said, but instead just a normal part of defending the country.

Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov was asked by journalists on Monday to justify sizable army movements around the southern city of Rostov. One reporter asked whether the soldiers might get "lost like they did in 2014," when Ukraine claims Russian forces 'invaded' the Crimean peninsula.

"Nobody has wandered and nobody is wandering," Peskov replied. "The Russian army moves around Russia in whatever direction it considers necessary to ensure the security of our country."

However, the official said, these deployments should not cause "the slightest concern" for any neighboring nations, given "Russia does not pose a threat to any country in the world," including Ukraine.

The day before, Peskov had told a press conference that the movements were a response to "increased activity of the armed forces of NATO countries, other associations, individual countries."

"This all obliges us to be on the alert," he added. Putin's press secretary also claimed that, while Russia has never participated in the conflict raging in the Donbass, Moscow wants to avoid hostilities "reigniting."

And for more almost hysterical coverage of Russia's deployments (leaving out what NATO and US forces are doing of course) see the following about the latest movements in the Arctic:

SATELLITE images have revealed Russia's huge military buildup in the Arctic - as Vladimir Putin tests a terrifying new "super torpedo" with the potential to cause "radioactive tsunamis".

The Kremlin is consolidating its grip on the polar region by building new military bases as tensions escalate with the West.

Weapon experts have raised the alarm over Moscow's new "super-weapon", the Poseidon 2M39 Torpedo, which is currently being tested in the polar region.

The stealth torpedo is powered by a nuclear reactor - and is capable of sneaking past coastal defences by moving along the sea bed.

It then detonates a warhead of multiple megatons which experts claim could cause "radioactive tsunamis" that could batter the polar coastline.

Last November, Christopher A Ford, then US assistant secretary of state for International Security and Non-Proliferation, said the Poseidon torpedo is designed to "inundate US coastal cities with radioactive tsunamis."

Satellite images provided to CNN by space technology company Maxar show underground storage facilities being built which experts fear could be used for the torpedo.

Military jets and bombers are also pictured as well as new radar systems close to Alaska.

A senior US State Department official told CNN: "There's clearly a military challenge from the Russians in the Arctic.

"That has implications for the United States and its allies, not least because it creates the capacity to project power up to the North Atlantic."

The Russian military build-up in the Arctic is different. Building airstrips, bases and missile test sites, it's clearly long-term and done with a view to the Northern Sea Route becoming a permanent fixture. Moscow is apparently banking on Arctic sea ice becoming permanently 'fluid'.