The obvious play for the Russian-backed Syrians is to neutralize Americans at al-Tanf by giving their base a 55 kilometer-wide berth and punch through to the Iraqi border further east. Such a maneuver would end US dreams of al-Tanf as a staging point for a push into the Euphrates valley and make it into an irrelevant, isolated outpost in the desert.It seems we now have our answer. The Pentagon has escalated again.
But the question is: is the Pentagon capable of resigning itself to its fate? Is it capable of sitting idly by, doing nothing, as its forces in southern Syria are made irrelevant, or will it escalate (yet again) before that happens?
Pentagon-sponsored rebels of Maghawir al-Thawra (Commandos of the Revolution) have reported that they have set up a second outpost in Syria with the Americans.
So, just as the US demonstrated how destabilizing and dangerous its base in souther Syria is, it has gone and added another one.
Let's recount:
- First the US unilaterally installed itself on Syrian territory at al-Tanf together with "rebels" it trained in Jordan and pays from its own pocket.
- Then the US bombed and killed Syrian troops on Syrian territory advancing in the general direction of the US base in Syria.
- The US then proclaimed a 55 kilometers exclusion zone for Syrian troops around its base in Syria.
- The US then proclaimed itself "threatened" just by the Syrian army sitting outside the 55 kilometer no-go zone, and brought in more US personnel. (Reportedly there are now 150 Americans occupying al-Tanf.
I also said this was only really possible if US stood by as this happened, and did not seek a way to thwart the Syrians and escalate the situation yet again.
Well, that is exactly what the Pentagon opted for. It has set up another outpost, 70 kilometers to the east of al-Tanf, around which it will doubtlessly enforce another 55 kilometer exclusion zone. Such a US expansion eastwards makes it unlikely the Syrianscan outflank and cut off the Americans into irrelevancy any time soon.
Also should the Syrians make the attempt, the US can always spam another desert garrison still further east, eventually gobbling up the entire Syrian-Iraqi border.
Imagine a reverse scenario where Syria was spamming Syrian military bases in New Mexico and Arizona and proclaiming 55-kilometer exclusion zones around them -- thus gradually gobbling up the US-Mexican border for itself.
Why exactly should the US control Syria's border with Iraq? The Pentagon will claim it is rather Syrian rebels who control it, but the very name they have chosen for themselves (Commandos of the Revolution) reveals just how few in number they are. Unlike the Kurdish-led SDF, these "commandos" would be a non-entity without their paymaster's presence.
R.C.