Typhoon Phanfone is gathering strength in the western Pacific Ocean, with projections showing that it may intensify significantly - likely to super typhoon status - before veering toward mainland Japan by Oct. 5.
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© NOAATyphoon Phanfone, currently over open waters of the West Pacific, may make landfall in Japan in a few days.
Computer-model simulations on Wednesday show that the storm will likely intensify over the next few days, while moving northwest, toward extreme southwest Japan or the open East China Sea. However, winds in the upper atmosphere should turn the storm north and then northeast, potentially making a direct hit on several Japanese islands, and scoring a direct hit on Tokyo as a Category One storm.

Japan has already been affected by three tropical cyclones this season, including Typhoon Halong, Tropical Storm Nakri and Typhoon Neguri. Southwest Japan has experienced widespread flooding from the combination of these storms and other weather systems.

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Computer-model projections of the track of Typhoon Phanfone, showing the close call for Japan.
The European model, one of the most reliable weather-forecast models, is projecting that Typhoon Phanfone will approach Category 3 to 4 intensity, and come within a few miles of Tokyo, Japan's largest city, which has a population of about 13 million. However, the storm will be weakening at that point.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center, which is run by the U.S. Navy and Air Force, reported that the storm is in an extremely favorable environment for intensification, including the presence of warm ocean waters beneath it and light winds in the upper atmosphere around it.

Japan will have to worry about a two-pronged threat, as there are indications that another storm will follow Phanfone on a similar track less than one week later.