
© Strategic Culture Foundation
SHANGHAI - China's powerhouse moves on like a speed-breaking EV. The atmosphere is electric. At a business dinner in a landmark Cantonese restaurant, Trump's visit to China at least propels the conversation towards something more tangible: the conflicting paths for future generations from the West down to the East.
Business Shanghai is not exactly impressed by the arrival of the Emperor of Barbaria. Even if every possible geopolitical variable may be at stake in what is arguably the most important diplomatic meeting of the Year of War 2026, with possible trade and security decisions bound to affect the whole Global South.
Let's start with pedestrian American concerns. A master in the Art of No Empathy, Trump at least may have vociferated the whole game away:
"I don't think about Americans' financial situation. I don't think about anybody."And yet he does. He's terrified of becoming a fat lame duck after the mid-terms. So he will pressure Beijing to buy more soybeans - to appease his Midwest base - and more Boeings. He will pressure Beijing to export rare earths - to appease the industrial-military complex.
And of course he will exercise maximum pressure on Xi to press Tehran to open the Strait of Hormuz, so oil prices will come down, inflation will be reduced, and the Fed will cut rates.
He holds zero cards to achieve this agenda. On the tech war, his maximum pressure only led to China spectacularly bypassing U.S. suppliers, over and over again. On the trade war, China amply diversified exports and even got a record trade surplus.
Iran of course is the key - not least by showing for all the planet to see the glaring structural mega-holes of the "indispensable nation". What will Trump do? Threaten Xi because Iran is using the Chinese BeiDou satellite system, which de facto reduced the whole of West Asia to a glass house for Iranian ballistic missiles?
Iran never lost its oil connectivity corridor to China when the Emperor of Barbaria came up with the "blockade". The flow is on, via the shadow tanker network navigating close to Iranian and Pakistani territorial waters, ship-to-ship transfers, disguised cargoes, and
now Chinese refiners told by Beijing to absorb the sanctions risk.That's not a fight in effect only in thalossacratic terms, but also in Eurasia overland terms - via the Eurasian rail corridor, those trains running from Xian to Tehran and vice-versa. Railways may still not match the volume of maritime exports, but strategically that's absolutely key, driving the point that maritime pressure is completely different from overland economic strangulation.
The "brilliant" American idea of suffocating China's oil supply chain - from Venezuela to Hormuz - plus sanctioning Chinese teapot refineries only led to
China emerging as one of the key real mediators during the (non-stop broken) ceasefire, alongside Russia.The whole Hormuz game, played to perfection by Iran, has had very little impact on Chinese imports, as much as restricting exports of Nvidia H100 and H200 to "control" Chinese AI had next to zero impact. After all, China de facto ignores Nvidia. The DeepSeek V4 model uses local chips. And the H200 is not sold in China.
Xi won't even need to tell Trump face to face that if he insists on deploying financial war by shutting down the financial institutions behind the teaport refineries, Beijing will have no trouble into deploying full-scale economic war.
Taiwan is not the only remaining card. Taiwan is not even a card. Taiwan is an internal security matter for Beijing. Everything else is just spin. Beijing may invest in persuading Trump about nullifying the $11 billion weapons sale to Taiwan, including Aegis-equipped destroyers, F-35s, (inefficient) Patriot missiles and E-2D Hawkeye aircraft for early warning signs. But even that is peripheral.
So what's left after all the (reduced) pomp and circumstance? At best the current, quite precarious status quo.
Comment: Well, it's not like Gates has been hiding his agenda: