© Asia Narratives
Donald Trump arrives in Beijing on May 14-15 for the summit postponed from March by America's invasion of Iran. A delay that reflects the reality of their positions. Trump comes to Beijing not with strategic clarity and an endgame, but tailed by a conflict in the Middle East that has created an energy and food crisis, inflation, and growing domestic political fragmentation.
The Strait of Hormuz crisis has already destabilized global energy markets. Secondary effects on fertilizer, shipping, insurance, and food prices will intensify later this year.
This summit therefore unfolds against the backdrop of systemic military conflicts and economic pressure rather than diplomatic and strategic opportunities.
The central issue is no longer what China and the United States discuss, but whether Washington has the internal coherence to follow through on its agreements.The formal agenda is extensive: Iran, trade, artificial intelligence, semiconductors, rare earths, Taiwan, and supply chains. The practical expectations are narrower. Three hotels with approximately one thousand rooms have been reserved for the American delegation. It will include Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg and Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser. It is expected that Beijing will announce a large purchase from Boeing. Beyond that, major structural breakthroughs will be unlikely, as
America is intent on containing China and China equally determined to resist.Optics will outweigh substance.
Comment: The EU may ban directly importing gas and oil from Russia and instead prefer to import Russian oil and gas indirectly at a higher price from India and other countries who then can make a profit from it.