While keeping up with the ongoing geopolitical shenanigans between the US and Russia in Syria, I repeatedly note a recurring and glaring omission in every mainstream media report on the situation:
a sensible reason why either country is so interested in Syria. There are, of course, narratives, like that both countries are 'fighting terrorism', or that the US is supporting democracy in Syria by trying to overthrow the 'brutal dictator' Assad. But I assume that, at this stage, most people are highly skeptical of those explanations. After all, way back in 2003, in the run-up to the US invasion of Iraq, 15 million ordinary people saw right through the political narrative that the invasion was to protect Western populations from Saddam's (non-existent) WMDs and marched on Europe's streets chanting "no war for oil".
Many people knew the real reason for the scramble for Iraq, but do they know the reason for the scramble for Syria? And what about Russia? Is Putin fighting a purely ideological war against terrorists and helping Russia's long-term ally Assad to stay in power? Is that reason enough to launch modern Russia's first-ever large-scale military deployment abroad?
In
an October 2015 essay, I outlined the realpolitik behind the war in Syria at that time. It was then, and still is, all about natural resources, specifically oil and especially natural gas. Intricately linked to the development of these two resources, and to the future configuration of the world economy, is
Eurasian integration and the 'new Silk Road', i.e. a network of land links between Asia and Europe (more about that below).
Comment: John Kerry is yet another idiot: If the U.S. and Iraq succeed in taking Mosul, the fundamental dynamic of this war does not change. Will it change the attitude of the people who have been driven out and the people that have been radicalized? No. They will be even more determined to seek revenge and even less inclined to come to the table to negotiate. Oh wait, the U.S. doesn't negotiate with terrorists. That's right. Only Russia and Syria are forced to do that.
A SANA correspondent reports that "Unarmed militants, as well as a group of wounded, ill and elderly civilians left the eastern districts of Aleppo heading to northern outskirts via specially designated corridors, opened by the Syrian army in coordination with the Russian side." So this ceasefire, unilaterally introduced by Russia and Syria, is already a greater success than failure that included the U.S.
And while civilians and wounded are leaving Aleppo, Daesh commanders are leaving Mosul unencumbered: "According to Al Mayadeen channel, the group of Daesh commanders moved to the Syrian border, as the Iraqi air forces continue to monitor the area to the west of Mosul." Scratch your head on that for a minute.
Read more: U.S. "Pounds" Mosul, Russia Halts Airstrikes on Aleppo