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In 2016, Steven Bannon interviewed me about the Middle East for his very popular talk radio show. The kind of questions he asked me showed clearly that he really knew very little of the region. But Bannon is smart. He asked smart questions. One of those was who is the trouble maker of the region? I answered that possibly this could be Turkey's leader Recep Erdogan who had just survived a coup d'état masterminded by arguably the most powerful leader of the region, Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan who is often called MBZ. I argued that
Erdogan had such huge geopolitical ambitions, the money, the military resources and the true grit to actually make Turkey a regional power, competing with KSA and UAE. I said that Erdogan had a lot to prove and was eager to make a wave and that he might just pull it off if he can keep a cool head.
To my great surprise, I noted a couple of weeks later Bannon do an interview with a Saudi newspaper and repeated all of what I had told him
verbatim. He even copied my expressions!
But levity aside, there are some serious points about Erdogan's role and what now he must be thinking about Turkey's positioning in the region.
Syria falling took everyone by surprise. The sheer speed of the Assad regime collapsing as an entire army walked away from the slew of jihadists driving at high speed south, until they reached Damascus, was stunning. Presently we are only left with journalists' clichés. Who are the winners and losers? Does this now weaken Iran thus tempting the U.S. and Israel to take a second shot at it? Or will Israel now target Iran's allies in the region now that the Shia Crescent no longer has a lifeline highway which can be used to supply Hezbollah in Lebanon?
All of these questions still hang in the air as we need to see whether these jihadists from Idlib have the political skills to feather their own beds with regional players. Perhaps within Syria, it might be harder as already, at the time or writing, the HTS is already fighting key towns in the north which are controlled by Turkey's main foe, the PKK, or should we say the YPG as it is known - the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) which is largely made up of Kurds, with a minority of Syrian army defectors thrown into the mix.
Comment: The Greens in Germany under the leadership of the philosopher Robert Habeck as Finance minister and geography 'expert' Baerbock as Foreign minister, have done a lot of damage to Germany. In all fairness they have not been alone in wrecking Germany but have gotten a good helping hand from the other old major parties.