What have the 2025 negotiations between Russia and the US taught us about the art of diplomacy?

There is no accounting for frameworks

It is common knowledge that international affairs scientists and historians are also human. And apart from their quirks, such as thinking, "Finally, it's the weekend; now it's the perfect time for eventually getting down to proper work!", they have quite ordinary hobbies and interests. According to the NEO's author, an example of such an engaging pastime is examining the phenomenon that source studies have dubbed the formidable term "audio-visual-photographic documents." These are the sources for studying contemporary history that might not be immediately recognised as such: photographs, photo galleries, news audio and video recordings, and newsreels.

One of the events in 2025 that sparked the greatest interest and left the most substantial informational footprint was the series of negotiations between Russia and the US. They could be perceived as a new object of study in the field of international relations, which pertains to diplomacy and the methods it uses. What have these contacts on the most acute issues between the two powers revealed to us in terms of negotiation peculiarities and from the point of view of diplomacy as a science in general?

Despite all the effort and fanfare, the kidnapping of Maduro wasn't quite the regime change expected - and top energy executives know this.

Everything has gone beautifully in Donald Trump's Venezuela operation. An alleged narcoterrorist dictator was captured and brought to justice in a New York court, and the planet's biggest oil wealth is now owned by the US. At least, according to Trump himself.

"We're in the oil business," he said after declaring billions of dollars' worth of Venezuelan crude was now heading to the US. "You don't talk to the Venezuelans, you talk to me," he told Big Oil executives who gathered in the White House last week.

The trouble is, Big Oil doesn't see it that way. The chief executives of ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips are not rushing back into Venezuela.

Trump called the oil chiefs to the White House last Friday to urge them to invest $100 billion in upgrading Venezuela's petroleum and gas industries. Decades of US economic sanctions are reckoned to have caused the country's industrial infrastructure to deteriorate.

The US president has imposed 10% levies on imports from key allies after they sent troops to Greenland amid his push to annex the island.

US President Donald Trump's decision to impose tariffs on NATO allies who sent troops to Greenland has led to dissent among top Republicans in Congress.

On Friday, Trump imposed import duties on goods from eight European NATO nations after they sent small military contingents to the Arctic island in opposition to his plans to annex the Danish autonomous territory.

On Saturday, Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski wrote on X:

"These tariffs are unnecessary, punitive, and a profound mistake. They will push our core European allies further away while doing nothing to advance US national security."

She called on Congress to ensure that tariffs are not "weaponized" to harm Washington's allies.

The US is carrying out an operation to seize a tanker linked to Venezuelan oil. Previously named Bella 1, its name has been changed to Marinera and it has also reportedly been reflagged from a Guyanese to a Russian vessel.

The ship, currently between Iceland and the British Isles, has been accused of breaking US sanctions and shipping Iranian oil. It has historically transported Venezuelan crude oil but has reported to be empty at the moment.

US President Donald Trump said last month that he was ordering a "blockade" of sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, a move the government there described as "theft".

Two US officials have confirmed to the BBC's US news partner CBS, that Russia had sent a submarine and other navy vessels to escort the tanker.

The US Coast Guard tried to board it last month in the Caribbean when it was believed to be heading towards Venezuela. The Coast Guard had a warrant to seize the ship over its alleged breaching of sanctions.

The vessel has since dramatically changed course and its approach to Europe has coincided with the arrival of around 10 US military transport aircraft as well as helicopters.

"Timing, not haste, drives what will happen next." — Thomas Sowell

Minneapolis, the sucking chest wound on America's body politic, gets a break this week from Gawda'mighty, who is turning the heat down to subzero so that ICE-Watch nose-rings can hole-up in their Soros-paid motels, play League of Legends with their DoorDashed Chick-fil-A nuggets, and rest up for the next inning of their motley revolution. ICE itself might even have to lay off its daily round-up of rapists, cut-throats, and child-molesters, to wait out the cold-snap.

Meanwhile, things elsewhere roughen up a little. For instance: Davos, Switzerland, where the World Economic Forum (WEF) holds its annual jamboree of vampire squids. Klaus Schwab is out, by the way. He skulked off in a malodorous cloud of embezzlement and sexual irregularities, to be replaced by Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, the hedge fund that owns everything in the USA and wants more.

The whole planet is somehow convulsed by neo-Caligula's latest scam: because he did not get his "peace" Nobel from Norway, part of his megalomanic narcissist revenge is to bag Greenland from Denmark (in Empire-speak, who cares? These Scandinavians are al the same anyway).

In neo-Caligula's own words: "The World is not secure unless we have Complete and Total Control of Greenland."

That seals the Empire of Chaos completely morphed into the Empire of Plunder and now the Empire of Permanent Strikes.

Assorted Euro-chihuahuas dared to dispatch a tiny bunch of dog-sled conductors to defend Greenland from neo-Caligula. To no avail. They were instantly hit with tariffs. The strike remains in effect until the "complete and total purchase" of Greenland.

Euro-chihuahuas - following the Global South - may have finally woken up to the new paradigm: Strike Geopolitics.

Neo-Caligula did not get regime change in Caracas - and his oil mirage was refuted even by US energy majors. He did not get regime change in Tehran - even if CIA, Mossad and assorted NGOs worked full time to deliver.

So Plan C is Greenland, essential for imperial lebensraum purposes, as collateral for the unpayable $38 trillion - and rising - debt.

By all means that does not imply ditching the Iran obsession. The USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier is moving into a position in the Sea of Oman/Persian Gulf where it would be able to strike Iran before the end of the week. All attack scenarios remain in place.

Assuming all hell breaks loose, this may become an even more humiliating replay of the 12-day war in June last year, which the death cult in West Asia spent as much as 14 months planning.

The 12-day war not only failed as a regime change op; it engendered a sample of Iranian reataliation so hardcore that Tel Avi still has not recovered. Tehran has been explicit, over and over again, that the same fate awaits neo-Caligula's forces in Iran and across the Gulf in case of renewed strikes.

Several European nations have recently sent troops to boost the security of the Danish autonomous territory amid US threats to acquire it

Germany's initial deployment of 15 soldiers to Greenland has wrapped up, German Armed Force spokesman Lt. Col. Peter Milevchuk has told Funke media group. He said cooperation with Danish counterparts had been both positive and constructive.

On Wednesday, Denmark announced a military exercise on the island. Several European countries - including Germany, France, Sweden, Norway and the UK - said they would take part, each sending between one and 15 personnel. The move followed talks between Denmark, Greenland, and the US that ended in what officials described as a "fundamental disagreement" between the Trump administration and its European allies over the autonomous territory.

"The results of the reconnaissance will be analyzed in the coming days," Milevchuk said, adding that the German team had completed its mission.

According to a recent podcast appearance by geopolitical analyst and University of Chicago professor John Mearsheimer, the Arab Gulf states led by Saudi Arabia (the Gulf Cooperation Council) are increasingly behind the scenes pushing pack against those who advocate for regime change in Iran. This marks a serious potential de-escalation in what is a decades-long (or even centuries long) Sunni-Shia rivalry and war for influence in the broader Middle East. In a sense, the pro-Sunni Gulf-NATO axis has already 'won' - Assad was overthrown in Syria, and Hezbollah's leadership was decimated last year - now less a threat to Israel and also Gulf interests.

Dr. Mearsheimer days ago appeared on on Judging Freedom talking with the Judge about a variety of topics, but most importantly on the evolving situation in Iran. As Mearsheimer describes, he laid out his thinking on:

1) what the US and Israel were trying to do in Iran — upend the regime and wreck the country;

2) how we planned to do it — with the usual playbook;

3) why the strategy failed;

4) why the US has not bombed Iran when it appeared a few days ago that an attack was imminent;

5) whether Israel planned to attack Iran with the US or the US planned to attack alone; and

6) what the strategic consequences are of what is happening in Iran.

Trump's Greenland grab has finally got the Euros asking geostrategic questions about the wisdom of over-dependence on American 'military protection'. But is it 'too little, too late'? They insist there's no way Greenland will become American territory, but Trump has issued tariffs against his erstwhile allies, and a June deadline. If NATO is coming apart at the seams, what about the 'Five Eyes' of the anglophone countries? Canada's abrupt shift towards "strategic partnership" with China signals that that 'Western alliance' is ending too.

Meanwhile, as yet another Iranian 'color revolution' comes to a screeching halt thanks, perhaps, to Russian high-tech assistance with knocking out the protesters' Starlink internet access, it appears that American-Israeli 'humanitarian intervention' (read: decapitation strikes) in Tehran has been stalled, for now. As we've already seen this year, however, Trumpian 'regime change' isn't necessarily bloody: Venezuela's government was apparently in contact with its US counterparts "for months" prior to Maduro's surprise capture.


Running Time: 01:55:36

Download: MP3 — 106 MB

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian flagged the direct US-Israeli role in the recent terrorist riots in Iran. Russian President Vladimir Putin said the million-strong rallies held afterward demonstrated the country's "real conditions."

Speaking during a phone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday, Pezeshkian reviewed the latest developments in Iran, where peaceful economic protests were hijacked and deliberately turned into organized violence last week.

Pezeshkian said Iran's domestic policy approach is people-centered:

"Our approach in domestic policy is based on the people, and all our efforts are focused on hearing the rightful demands of the nation and reducing the problems caused by cruel sanctions. The great Iranian nation, through its epic and millions-strong presence within a short time after these incidents, put an end to the riots."

The Iranian president also thanked Russia for its supportive stance toward Iran at the United Nations and other international forums.