© UnknownEU Crime • Suspect in Custody
The Polish, and the rest of Europe for that matter, are bracing themselves for an explosion of cross-border organized crime activity with the end of the conflict in Ukraine (which now seems closer than ever). Poland's President Andrzej Duda is warning about such an "explosion" of crime within Ukraine with the end of the war, and is calling on Kyiv's allies to provide it with "massive support". Moreover, Duda is worried, as he said in an interview to the Financial Times, that this could spill across the border into his own country, and also affect the rest of Europe and even the United States, with migration waves and transnational mob activity.
The situation reminds the Polish leader of Russia in the early nineties, after Soviet collapse, when organized crime gangs of the so-called "Vor" subculture were able to recruit veterans of the Soviet campaign in Afghanistan. The Ukrainian soldiers, in the present situation, would go back home to find a ruined economy. Duda said:
"Just recall the times when the Soviet Union collapsed and how much the organised crime rate went up in western Europe, but also in the US."Duda should be taken seriously: The Ukrainian mafia gangs are major players in international crime including the dope trade, prostitution and weapons trafficking. In addition to that, Transparency International ranked Ukraine at 104 out of 180 countries in its 2023 corruption index. Ukraine's level of corruption is similar to what one may find in Uganda, for instance.
There is another reason why Duda's warning makes sense: it implies that the end of the conflict could be near enough so that Poland (and Europe) should start taking measures to prepare for such a scenario. There are of course two main ways the war can come to an end: via a Ukrainian victory or via a Russian one. The former is tremendously unlikely as of now unless something extraordinarý were to happen. The latter is obviously what Duda must have in mind.
Poland, despite occasional tensions, has been a steady ally of Kyiv, but even the Polish authorities in Warsaw are saying that they have no intention of deploying their troops in the neighboring country (to help it against Russia). Other European leaders feel similarly about this - with his proposals about deploying troops in Ukraine, France's President Emmanuel Macron is to become a lone voice.
The situation has obviously changed, largely due to Trump's election. Even if Ukraine were to somehow obtain victory now through military or diplomatic means, the heavily armed and radicalized nationalists in the country (who can be found in the military and a number of militias) would not simply disappear and would in fact feel empowered in such a unlikely scenario, thus planting the seed for further conflicts with Russia in the future and with other neighbors, including Poland. Again this does not even seem like a possibility at all right now.
A third scenario would be some kind of negotiated peace with Russia still being most plausible. This in fact is thus just a variation of the Russian victory scenario. Here is why such victory today (more than ever) is the most likely scenario to take place pretty soon:
1. The first reason has to do with the Trump factor. The US President, in a clear departure from the previous administration foreign policy, has just announced that Washington-Moscow talks on ending the war are to begin "immediately." It actually makes sense for the US to take the initiative because the whole matter has to a large degree been an American proxy attrition war against Russia.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has already made Washington's new stance clear during a meeting at the NATO headquarters in Brussels: he said it would not be realistic for Ukraine to expect to reclaim its pre-2014 borders and there is no point in seeking such "illusionary goal" and thereby "prolonging" the war. Hegseth also ruled out the possibility of Ukraine becoming a NATO member.
Partly "withdrawing" from Europe (albeit still eyeing Greenland) is in any case in line with Trump's neo-Monroeism. While focusing on the border and on Panama and other issues, Trump also has to face pressing issues with regard to the crisis in Palestine and Israeli demands. Ukraine is just not his priority, it seems.
2. One can argue that Trump's call for peace in Ukraine could be only for show and would actually be a way of shifting the Ukrainian "burden" onto Europe. The problem is that it remains unclear whether Europe right now would be capable or willing to play this role. As Zelensky himself told European leaders last month, Europe simply cannot protect Ukraine without American help. The European members of NATO in fact face one concrete threat of aggression against a European ally today, and that comes from Washington itself, which is quite an ironic development. The US President, amazingly enough, has refused to rule out military action to conquer Greenland, which is part of the Kingdom of Denmark.
In other words, a Russian victory, perhaps by a negotiated peace, cannot be taken for granted (nothing can) but is increasingly likely. It would in any case put an end to an unfortunate conflict which has been tremendously costly in a number of ways, including in terms of the humanitarian crisis.
The last two years of the conflict should be always seen as part of the longer one-decade crisis which started in 2014. One may be critical of Vladimir Putin's decision to launch a military campaign in 2022. The fact remains that the current crisis has been largely driven by American interference, by pushing NATO expansion and supporting the coup d'etat which overthrew President Viktor Yanukovych, as well as backing the subsequent ultra-nationalist Maidan revolution. Washington funded and armed the Ukrainian far-right militias as well which have been integrated into the country's military and security forces as the case of the infamous Azov regiment.
Ukrainian chauvinism (US funded or not) has in turn fueled tensions - and not only with Russia but also with other neighbors, as I wrote before. The Ukrainian far-right would be empowered even by a Russian victory, because it could promote revengeful narrative or denounce Zelensky's "betrayal".
The ultra-nationalists are not the only ones who can cause problems in the aftermath of today's crisis - mobsters are another force in itself, as mentioned. With regards to Duda's concern about a boom in mafia activity, the truth is that Polish-Ukrainian first steps taken towards a confederacy risk blowing back and fueling anti-Ukrainian feelings in Poland, as Poland has issues with its own strand of radical nationalism. Polish ultra-nationalists in fact could also claim parts of neighboring Ukraine with the end of the war, as I've written.
It is said one cannot uncook an egg. Be as it may, even if Ukraine and Russia reach a peace deal, this will not put an end to problems in the region or even to tensions in Europe, more broadly. US-funded Ukrainian radical nationalism (which has roots in the new independent state of Ukraine and its attempt at nation-building since the nineties) will not just go away overnight. Likewise, there is no easy way out of Ukraine's structural problems with endemic corruption and criminality. When it comes to the Ukrainian crisis, unfortunately, the end is not the end.
Comment: Wars are nearly indelible - the deepest marks carried for generations.