The paper titled 'Counting the dead in Gaza: difficult but essential', published on 05 July, stated that using the 2022 Gaza Strip population estimate of 2,375,259, the estimated death toll would translate to 7·9% of the total population in the besieged enclave.
On Sunday, the Palestinian health ministry said that at least 38,153 Palestinians have been killed by Israel in Gaza since October 07 while more than 87,828 have been wounded in the besieged enclave. 15,983 of them are children.
The study by Rasha Khatib, Martin McKee and Salim Yusuf, used the data from June 19, with the official death toll of 37, 396. The official record maintained by the Gaza Health Ministry doesn't include over 10,000 people missing or buried under the rubbles.
"The Ministry has had to augment its usual reporting, based on people dying in its hospitals or brought in dead, with information from reliable media sources and first responders. This change has inevitably degraded the detailed data recorded previously. Consequently, the Gaza Health Ministry now reports separately the number of unidentified bodies among the total death toll. As of May 10, 2024, 30% of the 35,091 deaths were unidentified," observed the paper.
It also pointed out that armed conflicts have "indirect health implications beyond the direct harm from violence".
"Even if the conflict ends immediately, there will continue to be many indirect deaths in the coming months and years from causes such as reproductive, communicable, and non-communicable diseases," the paper read.
A report from Feb 7, 2024, at the time when the direct death toll was 28,000, estimated that without a ceasefire there would be between 58260 deaths (without an epidemic or escalation) and 85750 deaths (if both occurred) by Aug 6, 2024.
The interim measures set out by the International Court of Justice in January, require Israel to "take effective measures to prevent the destruction and ensure the preservation of evidence related to allegations of acts within the scope of ... the Genocide Convention".
"An immediate and urgent ceasefire in the Gaza Strip is essential, accompanied by measures to enable the distribution of medical supplies, food, clean water, and other resources for basic human needs," the paper read.
What does it mean? You cannot trust a respected medical research journal with telling the truth. They prevented a medical treatment, they murdered people because doctors believe Lancet.
Why now, this report? They are setting the murder rate in Gaza as higher based on suppositions about reporting. Essentially 5 times the Gaza reported rate.
Is this to exacerbate the war Israel is waging on Gaza? Is it to put pressure on Netanyahooo to quit? They know the number is much higher? They want to get ahead of the game and report the real numbers now so they aren't a surprise?