A nuclear-powered Chinese submarine
© AFP/GETTY IMAGESA nuclear-powered Chinese submarine: Beijing has stepped up its military activities in the South and East China Seas
America would be defeated in a sea war with China and would struggle to stop an invasion of Taiwan, according to a series of 'eye-opening' war games carried out by the Pentagon.

American defence sources have told The Times that several simulated conflicts conducted by the US resulted in the conclusion that their forces would be overwhelmed by the Chinese. One simulated war game focused on the year 2030, by which time a modernised Chinese navy would operate an array of new attack submarines, aircraft carriers and destroyers.

The analysis also found that Beijing's accumulation of medium-range ballistic missiles has already made every US base and any American carrier battle group operating in the Indo-Pacific Command region vulnerable to overwhelming strikes. The Pacific island of Guam, a base for American strategic bombers such as the B-2 and B-52, is now considered to be wholly at risk.

"China has long-range anti-ship ballistic missiles and hypersonic [more than five times the speed of sound] missiles," a US defence source said, meaning that US carrier groups could not oppose their Chinese counterparts in battle "without suffering capital losses".

The conclusions, described as "eye-opening" by one source, are supported by the most recent analysis provided by America's leading experts on China.

"Every simulation that has been conducted looking at the threat from China by 2030, and there have been various ones carried out, for example in the event of China invading Taiwan, have all ended up with the defeat of the US," said Bonnie Glaser, director of the China power project at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington and a consultant for the US government on East Asia. "Taiwan is the most volatile issue because that could escalate to a war with the US, even to a nuclear war.

"In the Pentagon and state department and the White House, China is now seen without doubt as the biggest threat. We have been too passive in the past ... Guam is now in range of their ballistic missiles, so the US would take a beating if there was a conflict."

Beijing has stepped up its military activities in the South and East China Seas, harassing ships, militarising islands whose sovereignty is claimed by others and sabre-rattling over the planned reincorporation of Taiwan. President Xi has said he wants the island back under "One China" by 2050 and is prepared to use force.

Chinese missiles
Chinese missiles can now reach as far as the US territory and military base in Guam. Picture: US Studies Centre
The US has no defence pact with Taiwan but has increased arms sales to help it to build a deterrent. US concerns are expected to be highlighted in the Pentagon's 2020 China military power report, which is due to be sent to Congress in the summer.

A defence source said that repeated warnings by Admiral Philip Davidson, the regional commander, and a drive from within the Pentagon to fund hypersonic weapons to counter the Chinese threat had already led to a significant switch in resources.

"Mark Esper [the defence secretary] has taken this on board and is aggressively moving to build the capabilities that we need to deter China from committing to a major confrontation," the source said.

The US Naval Base Guam at Apra Harbour.
© AFPThe US Naval Base Guam at Apra Harbour.
Hypersonic weapons are viewed as key to taking out China's ballistic missiles capability, and the US also plans to deploy long-range, ground-launched cruise missiles in the Asia-Pacific region. Marine units are also to be armed with anti-ship missiles, along a string of islands enclosing China's coastal seas.

US relations with China have deteriorated to their lowest ebb in decades as President Trump blames it for weakening America's economy, and most recently for its attempts to hide the extent of its coronavirus epidemic before it went on to engulf the world.

While those rows have yet to result in a direct confrontation, the US intensified its trade war yesterday (Friday), announcing that it had commissioned a Taiwanese company to open a computer chip factory in Arizona to "re-shore" key technology industries away from China.

Washington also announced that it would restrict the ability of the Chinese telecoms giant Huawei, which it considers a national security risk, to develop products abroad that use US technology. Beijing hit back, saying it was ready to put US companies including Apple on its "unreliable entity list" and investigate their activities in China.