Puppet Masters
While normal life is on hold for many people around the world, the war machine is showing no signs of slowing down. In Somalia, where most Americans don't even realize that military operations are taking place, U.S.-led airstrikes have hit an all-time high in the country since the start of the year.
AFRICOM, the U.S. military branch in charge of operations in Africa, has formally admitted to 39 airstrikes in Somalia this year, which is the most intense streak of bombings that the region has seen since the US military began its attacks on the region over ten years ago.
Despite his campaign promises to scale back undeclared wars, airstrikes in Somalia have significantly increased under the leadership of Donald Trump. Barack Obama, who greatly expanded on the Bush "war on terror" oversaw 36 airstrikes between 2009 and 2017. Last year alone there were record 63 airstrikes in the country, and the U.S. military is set to surpass that number very quickly this year.
It is not just airstrikes in Somalia either, there are hundreds of U.S. troops stationed in the country, carrying out attacks from the five American military bases that are operational in the country. According to a report from the Intercept last week, the U.S. military plans to expand the number of bases that they have in the region.
These attacks come during a time when the United Nations has called for a global ceasefire because the ongoing pandemic and subsequent food shortages already have many societies on the brink of collapse.
In a statement earlier this month, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said, "There should be only one fight in our world today, our shared battle against COVID-19. We must mobilize every ounce of energy to defeat it."
Also, the director of the United Nations World Food Program, David Beasley, warned this month that global conflicts will compound the dangers of the pandemic, especially in areas like Africa and the Middle East, leading to "food shortages of biblical proportions."
The U.S. State Department recognized the U.N. ceasefire recommendation in a recent comment to Foreign Policy magazine, but essentially said that they were going to go forward with their military conquests anyway.
"The United States supports the secretary-general's call for a global ceasefire, but have noted that we will continue to fulfill our legitimate counter-terrorism mission," a State Department representative told Foreign Policy.
Representatives for the U.S. military insist that they are only targeting terrorists. However, regardless of who the intended targets may be, civilians continue to die and lose their homes in these airstrikes. In fact, just this week AFRICOM admitted that civilians were killed in Somalia during airstrikes last year.
This is a rare admission on the part of the U.S. military, who makes little mention of the civilian deaths they are responsible for overseas.
It is not clear whether or not any civilians were hurt in the airstrikes this year, but whatever civilian casualty numbers are revealed to the public are likely to be an underestimation of the real numbers.
Comment: And from this 2018 article, we learn:
Estimating the Death Toll in Somalia
Passive sources put the violent death toll in Somalia since the U.S.-backed Ethiopian invasion in 2006 at 20,171 (Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) - through 2016) and 24,631 (Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED)). But an award-winning local NGO, the Elman Peace and Human Rights Centre in Mogadishu, which tracked deaths only for 2007 and 2008, counted 16,210 violent deaths in those two years alone, 4.7 times the number counted by UCDP and 5.8 times ACLED's tally for those two years.
In Libya, Libya Body Count only counted 1.45 times as many deaths as ACLED. In Somalia, Elman Peace counted 5.8 times more than ACLED - the difference between the two was 4 times as great. This suggests that Elman Peace's counting was about twice as thorough as Libya Body Count's, while ACLED seems to be about half as effective at counting war deaths in Somalia as in Libya.
UCDP logged higher numbers of deaths than ACLED from 2006 until 2012, while ACLED has published higher numbers than UCDP since 2013. The average of their two counts gives a total of 23,916 violent deaths from July 2006 to 2017. If Elman Peace had kept counting war deaths and had continued to find 5.25 (the average of 4.7 and 5.8) times the numbers found by these international monitoring groups, it would by now have counted about 125,000 violent deaths since the U.S.-backed Ethiopian invasion in July 2006.
But while Elman Peace counted many more deaths than UCDP or ACLED, this was still just a "passive" count of war deaths in Somalia. To estimate the total number of war deaths that have resulted from the U.S. decision to destroy Somalia's fledgling ICU government, we must multiply these figures by a ratio that falls somewhere between those found in other conflicts, between 5:1 and 20:1.
Applying a 5:1 ratio to my projection of what the Elman Project might have counted by now yields a total of 625,000 deaths. Applying a 20:1 ratio to the much lower counts by UCDP and ACLED would give a lower figure of 480,000.
It is very unlikely that the Elman Project was counting more than 20% of actual deaths all over Somalia. On the other hand, UCDP and ACLED were only counting reports of deaths in Somalia from their bases in Sweden and the U.K., based on published reports, so they may well have counted less than 5% of actual deaths.
If the Elman Project was only capturing 15% of total deaths instead of 20%, that would suggest that 830,000 people have been killed since 2006. If UCDP's and ACLED's counts have captured more than 5% of total deaths, the real total could be lower than 480,000. But that would imply that the Elman Project was identifying an even higher proportion of actual deaths, which would be unprecedented for such a project.
So I estimate that the true number of people killed in Somalia since 2006 must be somewhere between 500,000 and 850,000, with most likely about 650,000 violent deaths.
Nothing against the civilians, they have always been nice enough to me.