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© Sputnik / Maxim Blinov
Perhaps nobody in Russia is more responsible for the country's fiscal stability than Alexei Kudrin.

As Finance Minister, he paid off most of the national debt and built financial stabilization funds that have twice helped avoid financial ruin.

While Russia is better prepared for the inevitable Covid-19-driven economic recession than most of its G20 peers, Kudrin still believes the level of unemployment in Russia could treble before the end of the year, reaching eight million. While far from the 20 percent JP Morgan predicts for the United States, an 11 percent rate would put considerable pressure on the Russian social contract, especially given the low value of social welfare payments. It would also mark the highest annual figure of the Putin era, which has been associated with near-full employment.

This has led some to fear a return to the sort of social problems that plagued the 1990s. However, on Monday morning, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed these concerns as "hysterical."

"There is no need to completely exaggerate, although it does require increased attention. [But] fear has big eyes," he cautioned.

"According to forecasts during this crisis in Russia, the number of unemployed for some period will increase from 2.5 million to eight million, and it is possibly will happen until the end of this year," Kudrin, now Chairman of the National Accounts Chamber, told Moscow business daily RBK.

"Then there will be a restart [of the economy], a growth in demand and consumption, the number of unemployed will become smaller, and small as well as medium-sized businesses will resume their work."

Kudrin observed that demand for certain services has completely disappeared due to the coronavirus lockdown: Restaurants, entertainment and sports in particular. "Companies do not know how long they will have to live like this; they will have to fire some people," Kudrin added. He also noted how many employees of such companies are now on unpaid leave and who, if the situation continues, could be fired.

Meanwhile, the founder of recruitment giant superjob.ru, Alexei Zakharov, earlier delivered a doomsday scenario. He believes a repeat of 1991, when the Soviet collapse caused half of the country's population to lose their jobs, could be on the cards. According to his forecast, if the self-isolation regime continues until the end of June, it will leave up to 25 million citizens out of work. "Airports, airlines, infrastructure industries, and transportation are already cutting staff. Truckers are stuck and heavy transportation by Russian Railways is declining," Zakharov claimed, according to news site Lenta.

At the beginning of April, Kudrin told Putin that Russia's GDP could fall by eight percent. He insists the 1.4 trillion rubles ($19 billion, or about 1.3 percent of nominal GDP) that has been put aside to fight the crisis is insufficient. "The total support package should be at least seven percent of GDP," he advised.

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Russia should look back at the measures the government took to tackle the 2008-2009 financial crisis to offset the aftermath of the current economic troubles, the Kudrin added.

He noted that during the previous crisis the country unveiled massive financial assistance to help businesses stay afloat. While it did not help to avoid layoffs, many companies , even the weaker ones - survived.

Given the circumstances, Russia may need to increase aid for businesses up to 3 trillion rubles ($40.8 billion), according to Kudrin.

On Monday, the Russian government said it is considering additional measures to support the economy, which could be unveiled by the end of this week. Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said that companies working in sectors most affected by the coronavirus crisis will be able to delay tax payments through the end of 2021 in some cases.

The Russian government may roll out about 1 trillion rubles ($13.6 billion) in new stimulus measures, Bloomberg reported earlier. Some funds could be spent to subsidize salaries of workers forced to stay at home due to quarantine measures.

Russia's cabinet has so far reserved 1.4 trillion rubles (around $19 billion) to stimulate the economy, caught between the spread of the deadly virus and oil market volatility.

Kudrin had warned earlier that this might not be enough, even though the support measures currently being discussed amount to five percent of GDP. According to him, the country needs at least seven percent.

As of Monday, over 18,000 people in Russia have tested positive for the virus and 148 people have died. The rapid spread of the disease has prompted the government to enforce mandatory self-isolation regimes in most regions, including in the capital.

Earlier this month, President Vladimir Putin said that the nationwide paid leave would be extended to April 30, while non-essential businesses - including shopping malls, cinemas and gyms - remain shuttered in most parts of the country affected by the pandemic.